Understanding Price Action by Chris Capre

Hello Mazprofx,

Thanks for the kind words. I take great pride in my work and my goal is to teach price action in a different way, other than the freshman/vanilla price action others are teaching. I teach my students how to read the order flow behind the price action which is far more empowering than just reading price action patterns by themselves, so hopefully this is reflected in my work.

But thank you again for the positive comments.

Kind Regards,
Chris

HI Chris,

Small clarification. I know that December month is very slow month with low liquidity. Trading may be very difficult in this period due to spikes,low liquidity or no clear direction. I would like to know your idea about trading in December.Thanks in advance

Excellent question Perryfx. Yes, December is a month of massive position paring, especially for large portfolios and hedge funds that need to make quota or have been underperforming. There is no set pattern on which day things will start to die down. I’ve seen it stay strong till the week of xmas, and sometimes 80% of the liquidity gone by the 4th of Dec. Best thing you can do is to watch the price action in real time, see if ranges are getting tighter, remaining the same, expanding, are their breakouts or more breakout failures, etc.

These will give you clues into whether liquidity is draining out, holding or still active.

But great question and I hope this helps.

Kind Regards,
Chris

Hola Traders,

Just wanted to share an intraday price action trade I took on Gold today snagging +1230 pips (Over 4x Reward-Risk Play) and getting within $1.50 from the intraday top so far. Chart below;


I know there is constant talk about trading anything lower than the 1hr charts as being ‘noise’ or rarely having A+ quality setups. But this is simply just not true as these setups happen all the time.

There are plenty of opportunities to catch trades like this which offered over a 4x reward play, and you do not have to be waiting around for days to catch these. If you are, you are wasting your time, money and hurting your learning process in a tremendous way.

Food for thought and good hunting for the week!

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

It’d be nice to see more called trades beforehand, with designated stops and profit targets. Showing charts after the fact is… well, whatever.

Hello Merchantprince,

First off, calling live trades ahead of time would not be fair to give away the entry/exit or system methods my students pay for. Secondly (and quite important), I’m pretty sure my clients whom I manage money for would not appreciate me giving out the same trading signals for free which they are paying me for.

Thirdly, to the astute person, there is a lot of information in this chart, and if I was in the learning process (which I always am in), I would be studying this chart immensely for clues as there are tons in there. I study trades from past traders all the time, and try to see how I would have approached it, what clues they may have seen, what information would have led to me to buy or sell in relationship to what they did.

On another note, I had this service once a while back, but nobody learned and just hitched a free ride. Once I stopped the service, they all lost money as they never learned to trade for themselves. Thus I find it a much better model to teach those how to fish, not fish for them.

I have posted many live trades here, along with a 10+ year audited track record for my fund, which I think more than qualifies me.

But as to learning how to trade, you will not learn how to play golf watching Tiger Woods hit a golf ball 10,000 times. I have, and I still cannot hit the ball like him (not even close).

You only learn by learning a swing that works for you, and hitting the golf ball yourself.

Food for thought but I appreciate you bringing up an interesting discussion here.

Kind Regards,
Chris

Hello Traders,

Just wanted to follow up on Gold which I have been tracking a lot lately. It hit the daily 20ema which I talked about in my weekly market commentary, forming a pin bar in the process. I think this is a weak pin bar, and will likely lead to higher prices after a shallow pullback, which I will likely be looking to get in on. Chart below.


Hi Chris,

Was wondering…You were showing a trade on a M15 chart and keep on saying how those come everyday and are easy to spot. Well, I have a hard time with seeing that. How are you spotting it? Price action on those charts really seem like a lot of noise to me. Are you looking at some more significant S/R levels at higher frames and then move on to the lower frames for entries and trade management? Sorry if you can’t answer it here but I was just wondering as this seems a little difficult to me.

Thanks!

puzon

Hello Puzon,

Good question. The trade was actually on the M5 chart. In terms of them coming every day, yes they do and are easy to spot with practice and training.

Although I cannot comment in detail, you were intuiting correctly that one of my methods will be to find higher time frame S/R levels, i.e. 4hr, 1hr, and then will look for possible opportunities on the 5m if they react to that level and offer me a good signal.

I also have a system specifically designed for the 5m and 15m which spots a key order flow pattern that will likely lead to a reversal. So sometimes I am just trading this pattern which works really well on the 5m/15m and comes quite often on an intraday basis.

In terms of the charts seeming like ‘noise’ to you, you just have to learn to filter out non-important bars and information, and look for the overall gestalt of what is happening, then look for more key bars at key levels. Kind of like when you are walking down the street, you don’t look at every billboard advertisement there is, and instead only focus on key pieces of information.

You already do this on the higher time frames. An example would be when you are in a choppy range for a while - do you really analyze each and every bar? Probably not. You watch the top and bottom of the range for clues, along with any momentum building, but not every bar or wick. It is very similar in trading the 5min chart, just takes a little practice.

Great questions though and hope this helps.

Kind Regards,
Chris

Hi Chris,

Thanks for your reply! Yes, it helps a lot. I guess I have to practice more. I’m fairly new to this (about 4 months in total) and patience is NOT my virtue ;). I think I need to understand that it will come with time and not right away…and it’s I’m just used to picking things up fairly quickly but this is more complicated and requires more experience I guess. :slight_smile: Anyway, thanks for taking the time and putting me in a more positive mood about this :slight_smile:

puzon

Hello Puzon,

When I started training in Archery, they did not start me off at the 18m target. They started me off at 3m, then gradually up to 6m, then 12m, then eventually 18m. The process takes time and practice, but with enough practice, you can hit the target whether it is 6m, 12m, or 18m.

The key in archery is to have the technique down, and that comes through repetition and awareness in the moment. It is very similar in trading. Through repetition, time, deliberate practice and consistent effort, you’ll start to develop more patience and technique.

And when you do, you’ll be able to trade almost any time frame, just as a good archer can hit a target from any distance as the technique is the same, just requires a little adjustment for the distance.

As to this taking more time than usual, its a good humbling experience, but don’t make any judgments about it. Just notice, take note of areas you need to improve on, work on them, and things will continue to get better.

Hope this helps.

Kind Regards,
Chris

Hey Traders,

So the Gold trade I mentioned yesterday went to the role reversal level as mentioned, and has since bounced over +600pips from this level. Hopefully you got into it and made some profit.

I am not watching the $1705-$1715 level for a breakout to play the next direction. For now, my bias is long, but the FOMC meeting tomorrow could change everything so stay tuned.


Thank you very much for your quick and informative reply.

Nice Trade with more pips

Very clear chart. XU currently at the ressistance levels you mentioned here. As you said the pair more to upside. Yeah FOMC may change the direction.

de nada mate - am happy to help

yes, XU just hit the $1715 target I mentioned, and am still holding a position as im suspecting a $1717.50 break, possibly before the FOMC meeting

If it clears here well and is supported by the meeting, then $1735 should be up next.

but am glad you like the chart!

Hello Traders,

Here is another live price action trade I did on Gold today, all using the same analysis I shared with you over the last few posts on Gold as the levels I mentioned worked to a charm.

Total profit on today’s trade was +1207 pips and am still holding for likely further upside play. Clearing $1723 intraday resistance opens the door for the $1735 level, while a break below $1705 opens downside up to $1690/85.


Good hunting for the rest of the day as Bernanke is speaking soon which should add some volatility to the markets.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Hello Traders,

I’m now looking at the Dow Jones which has formed a pin bar off the critical resistance at 13300. There might be a pullback here and opportunity to sell if the price action looks corrective. Any break above here will target the yearly highs at 13600 where sellers are likely parked.

Chart below;


Hi Chris, I’m very puzzled as to how you managed the Gold trade. It appears that you did not shift your initial stop even after price had an extended run. I personally was long gold too but got stopped out at the first spike down. I’m guessing that even though the chart u posted was a 5mins chart, you actually entered and are managing the trade from a higher time frame (perhaps 4H or daily)?