Ha - never tried that skin. How funny. I’d call this the ‘Darth Vadar’ skin though
arvo all , great thread , regarding Fibo , I tend to go from low to hi if im looking for a retrace to the long or using the 100% as support and vice versa from hi to low hope this makes sense …
This is factually incorrect and a common misconception among retail forex traders.
Price moves all the time without transactions taking place, the interbank quotes which are provided to market makers (to which they add to the spread) and subsequently passed onto to retail traders all stem from the interbank auction market. Put simply, if the banks decide to change the bid/ask quotes at which they offer to buy/sell currencies then this change is cascaded throughout all subsequent dependent quotes right the way up to the retail trader.
This happens very often, a common example is the weekend gaps you will see when the markets open in Sydney on Sunday (UK time) higher/lower than the Friday close. If the prices have gapped, the banks have simply adjusted the quotes they offer the market and the market makers along the chain adjust accordingly offering the new prices (with their addition spread). Prices move all the time without transactions in a decentralised market as a result of shock events (interest rate change, war etc…).
You should really know this before advocating the approach you are here as it could be misleading to others.
Hello Everton,
Just a comment as having ‘arguments’ is not something that generally interests me.
What you are saying is not accurate, particularly regarding weekend gaps. The reason [B]why[/B] weekend gaps happen, is because while markets are closed from friday-on for most markets, middle eastern banks are open and trading. They make transactions which can move price enough to create a gap.
The gap happens, because market makers are adjusting to the real price that has been happening while they are gone.
What are they adjusting the prices from? [B]Actual transactions[/B] that have taken place while they were closed, which adjusted price.
So your description about weekend gaps, and the subsequent price changes, is not accurate, because they are based on actual transactions.
Now aside from that, welcome to the thread as I think this is your first time posting here.
You are welcome to participate in the goal and intended discussion of the thread, sharing your trade ideas, etc, as we focus on reading/trading price action in real time without indicators (save the 20 EMA).
All the best and hope you can contribute some good price action trades.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Qed,
Welcome to the thread. Some interesting charts there.
As a whole, I generally do not use fibs, but if people want to use them here, I support it. I focus my discussion on the price action, which some people combine well with fibs.
If you really are a fan of fibs, and want to learn about them more in-depth, check out the book ‘Fibonacci Analysis’ by Brown (Bloomberg I think is the publisher).
Pretty darn good fib practitioner, just be prepared to exercise your math skills in the latter half of the book, as it gets interesting.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hola Traders,
In a follow up to the Dax commentary and buy recommendation from yesterday, I had suggested looking to get long on corrective pullbacks into 9300 and 9284.
Looking at the chart below, we can see 9284 held the test with a double bottom (marked A).
After the bids stepped in here, taking out the last 90 minutes of selling pressure in 25 minutes of buying (B), the bears pushed back just a tad to 9300, which then found bids holding the line ©.
Shortly after, the index broke out of the prior day’s highs, and never looked back, so hopefully you profited from this one.
For now, I’ll prefer longs while above 9284, and will look towards 9400 and 9345 as possible locations to get long. Upside targets remain the swing highs from early April around 9536.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Chris,
As mentioned previously, price moves without transactions in any auction market (the FX market is the biggest auction market in the world). You can look that up easy enough here Auction Market Definition | Investopedia In the forex market, it’s the liquidity providers(LP) who provide the quotes you see on your broker platform… this is why different brokers have different prices. If liquidity is taken away (at any time) then you see more gaps/slippage etc which has nothing to do with transactions but simply a result of bid/asks previously on offer being removed from the aggregated order book which results in the next best quote being displayed… this causes gaps in prices on your chart without any transactions taking place.
As for you explanation of the middle east… it’s reminds me of the book ‘Liars Poker’ in which the brokers refer to “the Arabs” as the blanket explanation for when they had no explanation. Exchange rates are not set over the weekend but that being said there is nothing stopping you selling me euros outside of the market (outside of your chart) but this is not the interbank/forex market. EBS and REUTERS do not operate on the weekends (they provide prices amongst the banks) so this is why you sometimes see gaps when the banks adjust their bid/asks in relation to weekend events, again you can read about this on wikipedia Foreign exchange market - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and here Exchange rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
[B]Exchange rates are determined in the foreign exchange market,[2] which is open to a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers where currency trading is continuous: 24 hours a day except weekends, i.e. trading from 20:15 GMT on Sunday until 22:00 GMT Friday. [/B]
Please understand this is not intended to cause argument, merely just to educate you on how the market works.
Hope it helps.
Hello Everton,
This will be my last response on the subject.
First off, there is a confusion here on your part. You are not educating me on how the market works. I have been in the markets for 14 years, worked for the broker, worked for a hedge fund, on wall street, etc.
Second, I don’t ever recall asking you to ‘educate me’ on how the market works, nor request your ideas about the market, or anything related for that matter.
Thirdly, regarding the ‘Middle-East/Arabs’ comments, I am not referring to the ‘Arabs’ as the blanket explanation for something that I cannot explain.
It is a fact Middle Eastern banks are conducting FX transactions while western markets are closed. Here is a link to HSBC in Abu Dhabi:
HSBC Branch Network UAE
Hours are Sat-Thurs. Why? Because they are closed on Fridays. Who is conducting FX transactions over the weekend? Middle Eastern banks.
Now EBS/Reuters are not conducting transactions over the weekend, while the middle eastern banks are. But any adjustments over the weekend due to events, will cause flows/transactions to happen through those middle eastern banks.
This will move prices, which the interbank market will [B]adjust to when they open[/B]. What prices are they adjusting to? The ones caused by transactions and liquidity changes over the weekend.
So again, your statement here is not accurate about weekend gaps.
Fourth point - virtually none of what you are saying (whether it be true or not) actually affects my price action trading models, validity of the systems, ability to make effective trades, trading decisions, profit, etc.
So really this is an ‘academic’ argument, and virtually meaningless in the context of things.
Fifth point - along those lines, can you actually say with certainty how many ‘price movements’ are resulting from ‘non-transactions’? I’m guessing the answer is no.
But what (if any) would be the most dominant and consistent cause behind fluctuations in price as derived from the interbank market? [B]Transactions[/B].
Hence, there really is nothing else to say on this ‘academic’ venture, which has [B]zero bearing[/B] on the effectiveness of these methods, models, ability to make profitable price action trades, etc.
I will have no further comment on this ‘discussion’ which has very little value to the goal/intentions/nature of this thread.
You are welcome to have intellectual/academic debates with others as you please. Just respect the nature of what we are focusing on here.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Chris,
I won’t reply to every point you’ve written as it would be unnecessarily long winded, instead I will say the following:
-
My bank is also open on the weekend (lots of retail banks are) Barclays in Liverpool (Lord Street) � Opening times & address � bankopeningtimes.co.uk but me and you paying cheques into our account on weekends has no bearing on the interbank currency market.
-
My statements are descriptions of how the market operates and it is very easy for you to read about the clarifications I have contributed via the various links I have supplied. You appear to be showing a significant amount of ignorance and a totalitarian attitude which is unfortunate.
-
I’m not challenging your models or approach for that matter whatever it is… instead I’m trying to help you better understand the market by highlighting some misinterpretations you have expressed in your opening post.
In summary, prices move without transactions all the time in a decentralised market.
Regards,
Hello Chris and others,
Back after some time. Hope you are doing great. Looks like thread is going out of the direction with intellectual discussions. I don’t like to see this as this thread is all about Price Action trading. So really appreaciate if new members talk things related to the purpose of this thread. If not you can start your own thread somewhere IMO.
By the way, I am holding a Cable long trade for some time. Looks like we have another long opportunity with a minor pin bar after the retracement, near 20 EMA. I am going to take this one.
Happy Easter Guys !
Hi perryfx , that is only an isolated incident i hope, in any case have success with the trade. I am done for the week.
A very good morning to all. Hope you had a great easter friday, hangover saturday and super sunday(football fans). Brushing through the currency markets this morning, but nothing interesting apart from the cable longs from last week’s 6700 correction. Gonna be holding short till the US open before getting new trades.
Have yourselves a great day.
Hola Traders,
Hope you had a good holiday weekend. London/European markets closed, so thin volumes today, hence no trading for me. But will be posting something later tonight mid-Tokyo.
Btw, great article by Michael Lewis on Flash Boys (good read if you haven’t plowed through it yet).
Favorite quote from his interview with Wired Magazine;
"The best story is from Goldman Sachs, which is an investor in the BATS exchange. A guy in their equity department told me he was standing next to someone who said, “So the angry guy, we have a stake in his exchange?” And the first guy said yes, and the second guy said, “And the little guy, we don’t have a stake in his exchange?” And the first guy said no, and the second guy goes, “We’re ****ed!”
Funny stuff.
Full article here.
Have a good one and see you later today.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hola Traders,
I’m watching the GBPUSD which is approaching some stingy resistance levels, with the yearly highs around 1.6820, the Nov 09’ highs ~1.6877, and of course the big figure barriers at 1.70 (chart below).
The last few days have printed a few pin bars, but most of the price action is being contained up against the yearly highs, suggesting no sellers have pushed back on the market.
Watch for corrective pullbacks towards 1.67/6670 for potential opportunities to get long, targeting the yearly highs, and the Nov. 09’ highs.
If 1.6650 folds and we get a daily close below, then 1.6500 will be on deck next.
For now, we’d like to see more active participation in the market (likely coming this london session) to get a more clear picture where the order flow is positioning to start the week.
Good hunting for today.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hoping for an improvement in trading conditions, not nice having to squeeze those pips out.
Back to sleep for me now though…
Hey Apex, welcome back. haven’t seen you around for sometime
Hey man, yeah you know how it is… Very difficult to find the same amount of time as before, but I try to keep on top of everything…
Low liquidity environment means that I’m much less active than usual… And when I am active, my trades dont move as much as they would under normal conditions. So I’m just biding my tide and waiting for conditions to pick up, the British Pound is the best mover for now though.
On another note, you must be pretty happy to see Moyes getting the sack. United might miss out on European competition next season, which hasn’t happened since I was born!!
Crazy times!
Take care,
Apex.
hello,
I like to subscribe to this thread but don’t know how… hope this will do the trick…
Thanks
Hello Anke,
Hmm, never thought about how to subscribe to my own thread, but hopefully someone else will know.
Welcome to the thread, and make sure to start at the beginning as there is some good information about our base models of understanding price action, particularly using the impulsive vs. corrective price action.
BTW - where in the Land of Orange are you from, as I have a lot of good friends from there, and been there myself to a few cities (Utrecht, Amsterdam, Haarlem)?
Smoooooooth Anke. I like it! Hahaha.
Apex.