Hope it will be a valuable book. Looking forward to it. By the way have a nice weekend.
Hello Alanamc,
So far the analysis worked out as there was a decent intraday rejection off the first major swing high that offered a solid trade.
FYI, every friday or saturday, i’ll be writing some new content which will be part of a regular schedule for adding things to the forward, which will allow traders to study over the weekend while the markets are inactive.
But should have something within the hour.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Much of becoming a successful trader is getting comfortable standing in the ever flowing river of uncertainty. This river is often referred to as the ‘right edge of the chart’, but in reality - it is the absolute potential of the next moment.
~Chris Capre
Totally agree with you Chris. Enjoy your weekend.
thanks mate, working on my new content for today, plus the weekly outlook
btw - great avatar!
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
I am looking at several things to start off the week as there are many good looking setups, but two I’d like to mention for today are the EURUSD and Gold
Looking at the chart below on the EU, the pair has broken out of the two week range on Friday, while maintaining the series of HL’s (higher lows) and HH’s (higher highs). the former range resistance becomes intraday support at 3400. If this holds, then a challenge towards 3500 would likely be on deck, but a failure back into the range suggests the medium term trend could be weakening.
As for Gold, the pair sold off more in the last 3 days then it gained in the last 7. I think the bears are still in control, and intraday price action along with the daily chart still suggests this. Although I suspect buyers will come in around 1654, I still see possible more downside, so will wait towards 1645 and 1635 before getting long. Until then, I’ll look for intraday price action signals to get short.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Chris,
Hope you had a wonderful weekend. It is nice to see EUR/USD analysis here. Coz that’s my favorite pair. I am also eyeing around 1.3400 to try a small long lets see.
Hello Alan,
I usually cover the EU on a weekly basis so hopefully you find it useful>
Currently it seems to be supported intraday around 1.3430. If 3424 breaks, then 3400 and 3384 are likely up next
Lets see how it closes the London session and then should have a better idea, but so far its still showing likely more upside.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
I’ve been watching Gold today, which has shown some of its first real attempts to bottom, based on the intraday price action. It has formed an outside bar, and followed it up with a small pin bar (chart below).
I’m still not convinced, but if the key $1652 level holds, on another corrective pullback, I’ll look to likely get long, targeting $1664. If this level fails, then we could see a deeper pullback towards $1645 or even $1625.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hope you took the trade as per the analysis. I missed this opportunity. It achieved your target at 1664. Happy pipping.
Hello Perry,
Unfortunately I didn’t get the pullback I wanted so missed it.
However, since this the first touch on the 20ema on the 4hr chart, if I get a decent pullback towards the same levels that does not look too aggressive, then I’ll consider another long.
Short term things seem to be favoring more upside, but i’m wanting a little more build up
Anyways, will comment on EURUSD soon
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Now the EURO is a little more tricky IMO. Looking at the chart below, we can see there was a clear breakout, which has not resulted in a 2-legged pullback towards the 20ema. Although the 20ema has been holding price above it pre-breakout, I’m not sure its going to attract enough buyers per se to really keep this thing afloat.
So more ideal is a corrective pullback towards 1.3400 which was the pre-breakout resistance, and could become a role reversal level. If this holds, then a re-test of 3475 is likely, but a failure here could send the pair towards 1.3275.
Ironically, EURJPY is showing almost the exact same identical price action, with a slightly deeper angle on the selling, yet weaker counter-trend bear bars.
Overall the order flow behind the price action suggests still bullish bias, but struggling to find new buyers here, so will need to pullback before attracting new ones.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Update on Gold:
So I missed my pullback on Gold as stated prior, but also as expected Gold hit the 1664 target, which is also the 20ema and dynamic resistance.
Now price has rejected off of it decently, and is potentially forming a with trend bearish pin bar and possible engulfing bar in one shot (see chart below).
Keep in mind, this is following the inverted pin bar, which in the prior candle, was a failed attempt to sell off. Now, with price forming a potential pin bar + engulfing bar combo, and the lows of the inverted pin bar being taken out, im guessing intraday bullish support has waned just a tad. This could possibly setup another pullback and retest of $1652/4 area, but the lines are drawn.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Looking at the EURUSD on the daily chart, it has formed an inside bar breakout, which is a general with trend continuation signal. However the breakout is a little meek, which could just be from position paring ahead of the FOMC tomorrow (see chart below)
4hr Charts show a small flag pattern, but the fact that the breakout bar did not get a good clearing distance is to be noted.
1.3439 is intraday support for the last flag/inside bar breakout, but should this fail, then bulls will really be tested at 1.3400.
If this holds, then a retest of today’s highs is in order, but a failure to hold here suggests likely breakdown towards the major range support at 1.3250.
For those wanting more information on about inside bars, and how I generally approach them, make sure to check out the video below;
Good luck trading tomorrow as I’m expecting it to be a volatile day, but a good one for price action trading.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Today the S&P 500 started to show the first major cracks in the current bull run by creating a 2 Bar Reversal Pattern on the daily charts (see below)
A look into the 4hr chart shows the first counter-trend impulsive move since the 17th, which suggests any attempts to rally will be met with a LH (lower high).
I’ll look to sell any corrective pullbacks either towards 1503 or 1510, targeting 1495 and 1487 minimally, with a potential break down to 1480, so watch for intraday price action signals on a failed rally.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD and EURJPY are still showing signs of strength, so buying on pullbacks is suggested.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Chris how ya doing ? Thanks for the EU analysis. Nice Video as well. I am also eyeing around 1.34 to reload longs or looking for shorts according to the PA behavior. But still bulls in a good position. Tomorrow we have NFP . That may be the day to look for a better trade.
Hello Perry,
Am well, thanks for asking.
In regards to EU, it still hasn’t given a good intraday pullback signal, but have an order not too far below to buy. Until we get a strong intraday reversal signal, i’m still looking for longs.
Tomorrow should make things interesting as well.
I’ll be writing about a key move in GBPJPY soon so stay tuned.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Today the GBPJPY formed a double intraday breakout, first clearing the 144.27 level which held for the last 14 days, and then the major Jan. swing high at 144.75. Both of these levels offered intraday breakout pullback setups, so hopefully you were able to profit from them (chart below).
I’ll look for major pullbacks towards the role reversal level at 144.75 for potential longs on corrective moves into the level. Should this hold, then I’ll target 146 and 150 which are the major swing highs from May and Jan 2010.
NOTE: Tomorrow is the first NFP of 2013 so make sure to mitigate risk heading into the event.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hi Chris
Like this very much. Didn’t catch the GBPJYP meat.
However, munched up the majority of the juicy stuff on the AUDJYP taking 112 pips as can be seen below with a break even for 50% of the position snagging a further 16 pips 
Nice Trade mate.