I see what your saying, that way you can prove that the trade was actually taken and not something just said post facto.
Unfortunately, my broker doesnt use the same timezone, and it doesnt show the actual trade taken…
The timezone doesn’t really matter per se to the actual trade - that is immaterial.
One suggestion would be to take screenshots of every trade you take (as soon as you enter, and just after exit). Then save them for review at the end of the week. You can sort them between winners and losers, as you will often find patterns in the winners and losers that will help you isolate better trades in the future.
Just a suggestion, but I think it will help you in the future
But if you are not trading off of MT4, then I’m assuming you are using their Forex Trader Pro? If so, then that platform is far faster than the MT4 which is going through a bridge.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
I trade with MT4, then place my entries with the broker order form, I dont look at my brokers charts at all, I dont like the features tbh… Also, could you edit out the part of my quote please, I just dont feel comfortable giving that sort of detail out.
all done and edited out
so you do trade with MT4.
Ahh - got it. Yeah, id recommend taking the screenshots just after you open the trade, and then just after close. They are great for study and usually offer a goldmine of information as you will likely find patterns between your winners and losers.
All the best.
Chris Capre
Cheers mate,
And yeah, there seems to have been a misunderstanding (thats the problem with these modes of communication haha) Glad its all sorted now though.
And yeah absolutely, that does sound like a good idea, from tonight, im gonna do some market analysis in Microsoft Word for all my pairs - Look at the trading opportunities that happened over the last 24 hours, then see why they worked out, and why they didnt work out.
I guess once I have a nice collection, I can take it down to a hedge fund and prove my ability!
Although most hedge funds are algorithm based and computerized, is there still a job for traders in a hedge fund? Or do computer black boxes run the show nowadays?
Would love to one day take my trading to a hedge fund - A huge motivation for me.
Hello Traders,
For those actively watching this thread and my facebook page, you had noticed I mentioned WTI Crude Oil and to watch it around $92.00 for a bounce as this level held several times in the past, back till Mar. 13th which you could see on the 4hr chart I talked about.
Sure enough, it held with only a $.20 breach, well above the prior breach low of $91.74) and bounced over $.60, offering a nice 2:1 reward to risk play so hopefully you profited from this.
You will also notice the 1hr pin bar rejection off the level as the buyers were willing to step in on this level (chart below).
Watch it again to see if the level holds for there may be a good buying opportunity there. If it breaks, then $91.20 and $90.00 are on deck. Near term resistance is at $93.50 which has offered some good plays as well, so something for bulls and bears to dig into.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Apex,
Really great idea mate. Normally I don’t have time for this during weekdays. But I do self analysis on major pairs which I loved to trade during the weekend. Don’t forget to share your results here as well.
:31: Bad Luck
Yesterday I was so unlucky to miss 150 pips on EJ short . After moving 20+pips in my direction I moved sop to b.e +4 pips. Shocker, spikes got my SL and then moved in my direction to the next support level. What to do ? These things common in FX.
Hey Perry and Chris,
I did some analysis from 2012 for EURUSD and USDJPY (Daily and 4 hour and intraday). Havent finished the 4 hour yet, but I feel I have already found something very revealing…
Basically, I always ensure I can get atleast a MINIMUM of 1:1 for my trade. However, I found that most of my losing trades went to the 1.6 Fib level before reversing and stopping me out…
Now ofcourse there are some losses which are bound to happen, and thats okay, however, from what I can see here, if I go for the 1.6 fib level for my profit target, I should be able to increase my accuracy (by reducing losses quite significantly).
This means that I should have a 0.5 Risk reward ratio at a minimum instead of 1:1 (some of my setups are taken on a retrace and that increases the RR to 2:1 and 3:1 respectively).
Also on intraday, I found that 1:1 is best for me.
Ofcourse, I’ve only been doing this for a day now, so im sure over time I will find some more revealing info…
But thats just my discovery for the past day on data from 2012 (the intraday is based on the past week though),
think of it what you will…
Ahh, you see Perry, You entered above a kumo… Especially with the yen pairs, you want to keep an eye on Ichimoku. I wasnt at the PC, but I missed out on a 1:1 there…
I promise you, once you learn the power of ichimoku, it will enhance your PA trading, just something to consider.
Hello Perry,
You cannot avoid such kind of incidents. I also had similar experiences. Wish you luck in the next trade.
Regards,
Brend
Hey guys, did some mathematic calculations… Turns out, accuracy doesnt equal more money! Therefore going for 0.5:1 RR ratio is not a good idea! Keep it at 1:1. In the long run, a MINIMUM of 1:1 is best.
Infact, im actually looking to increase my minimum from 1:1 to something like 2:1 or 1.8:1
Ive noticed that when I get a winner, it tends to overshoot my initial profit target, so let me do some testing to see how that works out.
Hmm, accuracy by itself is meaningless. However, accuracy with R:R ratios does = more money, so this statement has to be qualified.
Performance is based on four dimensions, not two or three. Most people think in either risk/reward but factor out accuracy. Or if they factor in accuracy, but forget to factor in equity % risked and risk of ruin.
Most people do not talk about risk of ruin, which is basically a mathematical formula (derived from casino games) about what kind of equity % you can risk per trade, based on your current accuracy and payout ratio, without blowing up your account (e.g. ruining it).
What you want is to get it to zero, so there is zero mathematical probability you will blow up your account. When you do this, you will mathematically make money.
There is a lot of tables/info on this, but would make this a ridiculous long post.
So here is a link to an article on it which shows all the tables, info, equity % risked per trade, risk of ruin, payoff ratio, and where you need to be in it.
It is ironic that most people are not talking about this and only speak of performance in two or three dimensions, which misses the mathematics of trading. This should qualify them as someone who misses or does not fully understand the mathematics of trading.
So try to start thinking of performance mathematically in four dimensions, not three or two.
Hope this helps.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
SUPER LIKE!
So performance is based on 4 things:
Risk, reward, accuracy and % equity risked. If thats the case, then if I go for a minimum of 1.5:1, with 5% equity risk, I know for a fact I win way more than 50%. Therefore, according to the risk of ruin formula… Im theoretically in the clear!
Also, you talk about casinos, hey Chris, you planning on an Advanced Poker course? Its something Im working on in my spare time. World Series of Poker baby!
Hi there Mr Capre. I’m very new to Forex, started demoing in December 2012.Had a good first couple of months using the strategies that I started with, then the wheels came off.I now realize they were lagging indicator strategies.I didn’t know where to go from there, but a member on here recommended I check you out.
I have been watching your vids on your WS, and am going through the webinars on FXstreet, and trying to implement the techniques these last 2 weeks. I have seen a good improvement, but I’m interested in how to deal with chaotic weeks like the one just gone with the Cyprus crisis where I didn’t do well, with gapping in the charts etc it was hard to get a handle on things, and how experienced traders like yourself approach trading through events/times like these (or when not to trade). Apologies If questions like this have been answered already in this thread, I’m just starting to read through it,
Cheers Scott
Hello ASD99,
Caught me while I’m working at the computer today.
First off thanks for the positive comments and am glad you are finding the free forex videos and articles helpful.
In regards to your questions, the key is to trade when the market is clear to you. If its not, then don’t trade, stand aside, and watch until it starts to get clear.
You don’t have to trade every day. The market will be there the next day and you are not missing out on the greatest trades in the world by taking a day off to wait for clarity.
Although it may seem like it was chaotic, it made sense in the a larger scheme of things.
If you noticed on my prior posts, especially on the EURUSD which you can find here, you will notice I talk about the pair being in a downtrend, but in a channel.
Some good basic rules to follow are;
if its in a trend - trade it like a trend
if its in a range - trade it like a range
if its in a trend with a choppy channel (i.e. the eurusd) - you have to trade it like a range in a trend, which is what the channel represents.
So to break that down, we are in a downward sloping channel which is a little choppy. This means we want to trade with the trend, ideally at the channel tops if possible selling to be trading with trend.
In ranges, we understand the market generally cycles to the other end of the range, so we look take profit on the other end of the channel/range, while reducing risk halfway through.
As to this week, since we haven’t seen the channel top get hit, we’d be waiting if you are trading on the higher TF’s like 4hr and daily.
However, if you are intraday trading, then you are looking to sell rallies.
You can trade counter-trend, but this is much more difficult and something I do not recommend until you’ve had plenty of experience with trends, counter-trend trading, and the right systems/models to trade them.
Many of my students traded counter-trend and did well because they were able to read the trend correctly, had the right systems/models, and understand their trade was a lower probability trade.
So how do you counter a lower probability trade - with a higher R (reward) or profit potential. This will make up for the accuracy being less, but payoff heavy when it hits.
So this would be some suggestions on how to trade during these times and environments.
There is another highly valuable article I have which you can find here;
2 Tips for Beginning Traders
Which discusses some of the major elements to trading challenging environments when you are still developing your price action skills. There is a ton of information in there, with many key points that if you can learn them, on how to read the price action in real time, and stick with those methods, you will find yourself trading in the right direction more often than anything else, and finding your trades tend to turn out more successfully.
But hopefully all my comments and ideas above will be of use to you in dealing with these environments that will pop up, but critical to learn how to deal with because they will come, so your ability to read them, understand them, and then apply the proper tools will be critical to your success.
Hope this helps and do not hesitate to ask any questions.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Thanks Chris, first many thanks for taking the time to post your detailed reply to me, very much appreciated! Certainly does help, and thank you for the links. I definitely need to go through all the posts in your thread here, which is next on the list. Understanding channels and how identify them is also something I need to focus on, so looking at your examples on the EUR/USD are very helpful. Your quite right on knowing when to trade and not over trading. Last week I was hunting for set ups, which looking back is the sign not to trade until conditions are right in hindsight. I’m writing a journal so documenting all the experiences (ie- mistakes) ! he he.
What would be suitable time frames to get a handle on how the pairs move in a channel, and understand how to spot trade entries and exits?
I started on 30M + H1 time frames, but moved to H4/ Daily now, just to give me more space to study price action candles and spot trend direction using the 20 EMA. My main problem is R&R ratios and setting my stop losses and take profits on the 4H and daily TFs compared to smaller TFs…I’m finding it tricky to leave enough room for movement without SL getting hit, which is risking a lot more on the stop loss than the take profit, especially on D1 charts. I know each trade is different, but is there method that can be obtained from the previous candles etc for setting sensible SL & TP. Setting stop loss just above/below support and resistance on D1 candles creates a big pip SL. All something I’ve got to learn of course.
I won’t complicate it with counter trends for now.The ranges and channels is definitely an approach which needs to be understood next to deal with the environments that are cropping up which are influencing the currency markets. Again many thanks for the help, i’m extremely grateful , … enjoy the rest of the weekend!
Scott
Hey guys, EURUSD has made a triple top. And now Im keeping away from the long I was going to make. Triple tops tell me that the market is respecting that level and its going to reverse. Just keeping on the sidelines though until we get some movement… Theres some nice inside bar setups on the NZDUSD and I think on the GBPUSD too.
But im keeping on the sidelines today. May make an intraday play depending on if the opportunity arises or not.
Happy trading.
Apex,
How ya mate ? Had a wonderful weekend? Well I got the tripple top right and already done for the week in the very first day. Still holding my EU shorts with 1/2 already banked. Good luck guys.
Chirs,
Would like to see your analysis on EU. That would be very easy for me to do modifications to my EU trading plan.
Scott,
Nice to see you here. Feel free to ask anything here. Chirs would definitely help you to clarify any doubts on price action trading. Wish you luck.