Love to hate me…oh my…
Any why waste my time - why not use it to your advantage…
But I appreciate your candor. And now, back to what we do - which is trading and making money.
And I certainly agree with you as I think there are a lot of setups coming this week, so stay tuned, but I hope you post yours as well.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
Looking at the charts for this week, Euro seems like a chopfest at the moment, but the JPY pairs are looking more interesting.
To give an example, the GBPJPY has broken the yearly high. Notice how it levitated above the 20ema, which shows the buyers were willing to take almost any pullback to get back in and buy the pair up - expecting higher prices.
Now that the former yearly high is cleared, expect pullbacks here to find some buyers, but ill remain a buyer all the way down to 151.50. Upside targets are now 155.81, and then all the way up to 160 and 162.60, so quite a lot of room up there imo.
So look to buy the JPY pairs on pullbacks, until we see daily closes below the 20ema and a new LL printed.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Thanks Chris, Hope you had a nice weekend. Still holding this trade & would like to see your updates on JPY pairs in the coming days.
Congrats Chris ! Hope we can reach next 100 pretty soon. 
Good luck everyone
hehe…kinda feeling jealous today…all the JPY trades left me behind last week…but took two quick EUR/USD ones on thursday and friday. Really waiting for a good pullback here and there will be a new passenger in the Yen boat…nice week guys,
Trade and make Pips!
Grix,
Don’t worry your time will come soon. Let’s grab more pips this week.
Hello Grix,
I think you’ll get your pullback for sure on the JPY pairs. The strongest IMO at the moment is the GBPJPY, but i’m still expecting a pullback on that one and waiting for another order there.
Markets are quite slow today though. EU in 35pip range :-(((
Only real mover has been Oil which had some decent plays. GU finally starting to open up a bit, but a 35-40pip range isn’t exactly big money material.
I’m guessing tomorrow things should open up a bit since its the Early May bank holiday in the UK, so volumes are definitely low. Likely range bound activity will continue with small breakouts, so stay sharp and look to take profits early.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hi Mr Capre, although the Japanese train left the station without me, I have enjoyed the British and Australian coaches having already scooped 110 pips on such a slow day… 
Hello Traders,
So the main mover on the day with the UK bank holiday, was Crude which started off pulling back from the $97 key resistance level, to forming a pin bar on a pullback into a role reversal level (see chart below).
If price pulls back and holds this level, it will setup a good long targeting $96.30 and $97. A break below $94.84 targets $94.00 in a jiffy, so plays on both sides here.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello All,
I am seeing a nice set-up on the Ozzie Dollar pair and sold it @ 1.0240 for a possible 2.6:1 r&r. Buy stop @ 25 pips above.
I also sold the AUDCAD @ 1.0312 for a possible 2.4 r&r. Buy stop also @ 25 pips above.
RBA Rate Statement is due for release in less than 3 hours time.
We’ll see how these set-ups play.
Happy new trading week everyone.
Cheers.
Hello B4A,
Just out of curiosity, what was the signal that you wanted to sell into upcoming support?
Just trying to get a feel as I got some of it from the picture, but not all of it, so any details are appreciated.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Chris,
My signal to sell was the previous down candle closing between the open and closes of the 3 prior candles.
The pinbar off support was big enough as it took 25% of the entire move from 1.0322. I was expecting for price to at least touch the 20ema before sellers show up. However, the pinbar didn’t have sufficient follow thru telling me buyers are not confident of the upmove. Considering the down move from 1.0322 is an impulsive move and buyers couldn’t even push price upto 20ema I sold after the close of the aforementioned down candle.
I have sensed price to react at 1.0244 as it is where the order flow manifested market activity (candles open, closes, lows) I did consider the spread thus, my selling price was 1.0240.
I hope I have made myself clear.
Cheers.
Personally - and I am absolutely not criticising - I am looking at the current AUD/USD level for signs of a reversal. To my eye, Price has basically been ping ponging between around 1.0383 and 1.0176 since last summer, so I am basically selling at the top and buying at the bottom. Simple stuff, and obviously I’ll be wrong one day, but as long as it works I’ll keep doing it. I missed the well on 11/04 (April to US readers!) as was on holiday, but took the buy on 04/03 (4th March), a glance at the Daily will show you my previous trades on this Pair.
So I won’t personally be looking at a Short until we have seen a break and retest of the current Support zone.
Just my take on things!
ST
Hello Simon,
I welcome comments on my trades as they are going to provide additional insights into what I am doing (reading price action). I suppose every poster in this thread is a price action trader and one way or another follows Chris philosophies. Comments like this are crucial to my learning curve.
W/ regards to shorting the Ozzie Dollar, I had my clues on the 4 hour. I felt confident about it and pulled the trigger. I also considered 1.0176 as support, that is why, I placed my 1st tp just above it at 1.0185.
As of the moment, price is approaching the 4th of March low. It may bounce off of it or may break it in one go.
If the former scenario materializes, I’m going to see how and manage my 2nd position depending on the reaction of the market.
If the 2nd scenario materializes, I’m going to add positions on a pullback entry.
It is interesting for me to find out that sellers on the W1 chart only given up about 15 pips during this week’s opening and then sold off more than a hundred pips as of this writing.
W/ this current price action, there is reason for me to believe that the sellers are shooting for the parity level.
Cheers.
AUDUSD 1st tp hit @ 2.6:1 reward to risk ratio.
2nd position moved SL to BE and will ride where the bears are intending to go.
AUDCAD…
My apologies for not showing the set up beforehand. I have to leave and after having done w/ the AUDUSD trade journal I just took a screenshot on AUDCAD and logged out.
Cheers.
On the topic of AUDUSD, I took a short trade and immediately knew I made the wrong call, I made money on the trade, but there was no volatility there, so I didnt make as much as I could have by shorting GBPJPY - which went for greater risk multiples.
Anyway, pips is pips… Cant complain about that.
Happy trading guys, good to be back after bank holiday Monday.
Apex.
Well done. Although correct me if I’m wrong, but wouldn’t the final R:R be dependent upon how the 2nd TP goes? Meaning you have to average them all out, because if initial risk was say 100, and you made 260 thus far, its only on half the total position, of say 10 lots, so 5 lots at 260 pips, but initially you had 10 lots at 100 pips risk, so isn’t the R:R still an open variable at this point?
But a decent trade on detecting weakness heading into the level. And the RBA certainly helped, but nicely done!
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Just spent some time doing some maths… I think im going to have to assess my performance for my new trading model for each pair for each month and quarter… Thats going to get very tedious so I think I’ll do one month of data a day… Atleast it gives me something to do!
I believe that if you have a trader who is flawless, that trader knows that he has probability on his side.
Just my thoughts for today… Hopefully it will make some people think.
¡Happy trading guys!
Apex.
[QUOTE="ApexPredator"
I believe that if you have a trader who is flawless, that trader knows that he has probability on his side.
Apex.[/QUOTE]
In my view, getting to a point of mechanical execution of an effective strategy is as close to a Holy Grail as it gets. This is a probability game, after all - over the long haul it pays if done right.
And the maths will be very boring, but that sort of thing is always time well invested, in my experience.
