Understanding Price Action by Chris Capre

Hello Bob,

I try and plan for most contingencies ahead of time, so that when things change, I am already prepared. This also allows me to do less ‘thinking’ which could lead to over-analysis, and more using my mental energy and capital to focus on finding new trade opportunities.

Now, in terms of what do I do when the more unusual situations come up (pretty infrequently), I read the price action in real time using my models to detect any positioning changes. If I see them and they are against me, I’m out. If they are in my favor, I stay in. Very much as said before, I trade my plan and let it play out in most cases, and only in the really unique environments do I adjust. And that is based on the price action picture I am getting - which if it negates my trade idea, then I’m out. If its not, then I manage it according to my models.

I will not increase my stop by any means, but may increase my upside target. As to the stop, the only thing I would do is tighten it. My goal is to reduce and neutralize risk in every opportunity, so hopefully this gives you some ideas how to deal with these moments.

But where you said ‘But its that waddyado moment when you are all by yourself at that screen thinking why did I enter this trade that matters,’, I’m going to disagree with you here. I don’t think about why im in a trade after the fact. If i’m doing that, then I never accepted the risk from the outset, nor did I feel the trade was worthy to take. If I do this from the beginning, then it does me no good to waste my time thinking about why I’m in the trade. What I should be focusing my mental energy on is ‘how do I deal with the present moment and situation on the charts now’.

And I’m not going to say that is the moment that breaks/makes traders. I think traders are not made/broken in moments when things go wrong. I think traders are made by all the little things they do throughout the trading days, and non-trading days, that build the mindset, habits, and mental image that make/break a trader. All the things they do on an off the charts, particularly related to trading and performance, but also outside of that, that build the complete mindset of a particular trader.

And if the sum total of those things is favorable, then when those ‘waddyado’ moments are not make or break, they are just something to be dealt with, digested, and over-come. And the emotional/psychological moments that kick in, only do so because of the training, or lack thereof, that trader has done prior to that moment.

There certainly is a difference between traders, and the ones that over-come these moments you speak of, are not all hinged upon one moment, but a series of small moments and decisions, they have made prior to that event - particularly to do with how they have trained their mind/mindset.

So I cannot say I agree with these ideas entirely you state as I look at trading from a different perspective.

Hopefully this gives you some ideas how I relate to this.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Will say I have to disagree a bit here as I know people who trade stocks and do quite well.

All markets for the most part are available for trading and investing. They are just different approaches to the market, and if I wanted to be involved in stocks, I’d be trading them, particularly priceline, google, and apple.

But not my thing, so I focus on what instruments I enjoy trading.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Hello Scott,

You can use the same PA techniques/models I use for trading stocks. The main issue is you have to account for gaps more in stocks, but beyond this, PA models work as well.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Hello Chris,

When do you increase your upside target? When do you stick w/ your original tp? Is it still dependent on current price action? If yes, then why set a fixed target in the 1st place?

I am asking because I have realized that my strategy in banking partial profits (1st tp) doesn’t provide me w/ the right amount of reward whenever I catch a good trade. I feel shortchanged taking profit at 60 pips when I could have cornered 90.

It dawned upon me that setting a limit on 1st tp is actually an inappropriate strategy.

My biggest hits since I’ve started my demo account last month are on the EURAUD and AUDCAD. Though they are only 2 trades where I based my realization from, they mean a lot to me because this goes to show that I am capable of riding the correct bus on a long trip.

Have a nice day.

Bull, go over your previous trades, see how much more/less you would have made by not taking partial profits and compare with your current system.

The maths never lies.

:wink:

Hello B4A - I only increase my upside target if a) a particular unique event added unusual volatility, and thus order flow into the environment, or b) when I don’t have a fixed tp, such as in a particular breakout system, whereby in this type of breakout, I don’t have a fixed tp, only a min. tp, and read the PA in real time to capture as much of the breakout momentum as possible.

Otherwise, I stick with my original TP. Why? Because a) I have quantitative data to suggest that is a high probability TP, and b) because without a fixed system in place, how can I measure performance if the variables are always changing, c) sometimes I’m not there to monitor the trade (i.e. sleeping), and feel there is a particular area the PA may turn, so I want to capture as much of the move as possible.

As to the fixed 1st TP, I have tested many systems that show a high probability 1st TP, but beyond that, the numbers go down tremendously. So I use that as my first TP. But if the system shows that every now and then, that setup can go for a runner, then I have a 2nd TP to capture the alpha on the move.

Some systems from a risk of ruin standpoint, are best used as having a 1st and 2nd TP, based on initial risk, 1st TP, and potential 2nd TP. Others, mathematically are best not having a 2nd TP, so there is no one size fits all, as its based on the individual system, its risk, 1st TP, hit rate on 1st TP, and potential (or not) for a long 2nd TP.

Hope this explains it, but you need to test out each system, run through the different scenarios, then look at the numbers to see which type of profit taking system would work best with this.

Hope this helps.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Thanks guys, cheers for your opinions.Just thought I’d enquire if anyone does PA on non FX. Just been trying it for 3 weeks so far on the shares. Interesting to see if it translates over. The fundamentals are more important with stocks, but on some trades I just went purely off PA using what I have learned so far using the 20 EMA to spot a trend, candle counting etc, and picking companies that are pretty liquid.

Things have moved on from just buying and holding shares, with the options now in financial spread betting/CFDs you can short them and speculate in so many ways. You can day trade shares so it is not limiting to long term investing, very similar to FX where you can be in for a few minutes or weeks if you wish.In fact it is quite similar to FX,…mind I will probably be as useless at share PA as FX PA!! :slight_smile: Broke even on last 2 week demo, but was over trading with only having 2 weeks

Hi Chris, thanks, that’s great to know that people you know do the stocks. As a newbie I find the shares a lot less manic than FX can be at times, as some shares move alot slower than FX pairs, although reversals can happen very quickly. I’m taking my time more and not rushing in, and feel more comfortable with the stocks,although it’s very early days. Very good point regards the gapping, that will be a hurdle that needs to be mastered so you don’t get stung.

Hope I’ve not deviated the thread away from FX PA too much

Hello Chris!

Last week you showed me one of your articles for me to read that talked about trends and help me solve my problem of how to trade trends and how to identify the type of trend that we are negotiating.

I read your article a couple of times to understand concepts well and it you basically talks about two kinds of trends. The first occurs where a price drop after a breakout, and another trend where buyers and sellers have it and there is a pullback occurring in this trend.

I realized that we need to identify the type of trend that we are negotiating and I had no idea about it, and actually what you mentioned in your article had already happened to me several times.

I just wanted to clarify that for me the best is a pullback? and what a Breakout?

I saw in the article that you talk a lot about these things and their I just wanted to confirm if that is what I understood. A pullback is a slight decrease in a trend, and after it returns to its previous movement.

And a Breakout would be when there are no such retractions within the trend and the price just keeps following one movement and there are only buyers or only sellers, is a continuous movement, would it?

For me to grasp your article about trends I must first understand these two concepts, and researched the web a bit to clarify this and what I understood so far is that, correct me if I’m wrong please and would like to hear your opinion.

The difference between a pro and a newbie lol.

You’re absolutely correct. There is no one size that fits all.

My main concern really is how my performance does from a risk of ruin perspective vis-à-vis my desire to optimize my 1st tp and the overall trade results in particular.

I’ll have to see how my new strategy of not having a limit on the 1st tp goes.

Muchas Gracias Chris.

Hello Apex,

Thank you for your suggestion.

May you have a wonderful trading day.

Cheers.

And you mate, only trying to help!

:slight_smile:

Apex.

Hello Traders, After an sporting weekend and a boring Monday the week seems to be still slow.
Watching the Eur/Jpy making a corrective move after an impressive move last week. Guess this
correction may be broken after the German ZEW…

Keep watching!


AND yes I am still long from 129.65 since two weeks ago!

Grix,

Nice one Mate. Hope you covered some pips. Happy pipping :slight_smile:

Hi Chris, Apex, Grix and Others,

Still holding AU & GU shorts from last week. I hope that the bearish run will continue for a while. Any one trading today ?

AUD/USD Short


Cable Short


perry…I see the bearish groove has gotten into you…those two are noting short of delicious…:32:

Hello Perry and Grix,

Great positions you have there…

Holding positions can really be a winner in the long run.

I am eyeing to short the Kiwi Dollar at the moment. We’ll see how the hourly candle closes in about 30 minutes.

Cheers.

Hello All,

I didn’t like how the hourly closed but shorted Kiwi Dollar just the same.

Sold the pair @ 0.8226 w/ buy stop @ 25 pips above.

I got the set-up @ the 5 minute chart.

My first trade of the week.

Chart below.

Cheers.


Got out on a -9 pip in each position…


hey bullace just relax, some of the positions are winners, some are losses…just part of trading…remember to place that stoploss