Good to see that you are learning son. Keep up!
Hello Traders,
So my Aussie shorts on the break of .9600 got stopped for BE. The position initially went up about +70 pips, but since my target was about +230, it wasnât enough to take partial profit, so the BE stop hit. But you just move on as there are many high quality setups each day, and I donât wait sitting around for days for good signals, so onto the next.
Looking at the chart below, the pair formed a counter-trend pin bar just above .9500, and has since parked above .9600, forming a false break. The pair is still in a descending wedge, so if this holds, then another break and test of the yearly lows will be up next, but if .9700 breaks, then .9815 will be up next, and minimally this should form a short term bottom, so bears can look to go long off .9600, while bears can look to short at .9700 and .9815, targeting .9600 and .9527.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
I know you have already figured out when to exit, however one thing noticed was the increasing volatility before each impulsive move. The bears and bulls struggled for control more and more each time. Perhaps the increasing volatility is a sign that a reversal is coming. That being said, I recently got in on a pullback on this pair trying to get a few pips in =).
Hello All,
Speaking of the USDCAD, I took a counter trend trade basing on the bearish price actions. D1 has formed a dark cloud cover. On the 4 hour, price closed below 20ema for the 1st time since May 08.
Cheers.
Yep, I was just looking at that and thinking about closing my position and switching sides. Iâm going to let it play out a bit longer though.
Hello Chris,
I am riding on a current short term bull run as my buy limits at .9593 got triggered and is currently up 70+ pips. Up move was fueled by the Australian Building Approvals and Private Capital Expenditure news releases.
Cheers.
Hello hbb,
The pair is still very bullish. Though a dark cloud cover has formed on the daily, the high of March 01 that serves as support is still holding. I am closely monitoring the pair.
Cheers.
Looking at the USD/CAD closing below the EMA 20 after holding for 20 days. I must say that was an impressive run, but its time to tighten the trail stops.
For AUD, the pair looks quite bearish. But, after the formation of an impulsive candle earlier this morning, I am paying attention to Price action around 0.9720 region for a break out confirmation or bearish trend continuation.
Grix
Any update as the pair had a choppy ride today?
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hi Chris and Others,
Sudden bull impact on EU, GU and other pairs.
Any one buying here ?
Yes bull action started, at 1330 hours gmt with GDP data.
I was short on the Aussie 10 pips from target then boom, I got out +14pips though so not too bad.
Im possibly still thinking bearish on the Aussie wait and see if my HA PA closes below the 20 ema. here is my chart below.
Hello Traders,
So in my weekly market commentary this week, I talked about crude oil and the pin bar that formed off the range support at 92.00. Although this pin bar looked identical to the last one that played out nicely, I felt this one was not one to be buying - particularly the 50% pin bar entry technique.
The reason for this was the accompanying price action as the buying before the first pin bar was strong, while the selling was corrective. But this time around was much different as the selling was impulsive, while the buying was corrective.
This communicated to me the bears were more in control and would likely push back strongly against the bulls. And they did as an ii pattern formed after the pin bar at the 61.8% retracement, then produced one bull bar, and followed with some really strong selling, taking out the pin bar lows.
With the range support broken, bears have to wait till 96.00 or 97.00 to sell, while bulls are going to have to wait for a deeper pullback before getting long, so short term bears have a slight advantage.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Chris,
Stop at BE got hit. I wasnât able to corner partial profits as I didnât see any reason for the 1st position to be terminated.
I am a trend trader so I have to get used to getting stopped out at BE a lot of times. The most important thing is for me to be able to control/minimize the risk.
Cheers.
Yeah - this was a tricky one, especially with the announcement which initially started some heavy selling - but then the buyers just sub 96 came in, letting them know they were there, and followed it up with more buying, so tricky to grab some good profits without having to be Quick Draw McGraw here.
But you controlled risk so well done. Onto the next one.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hi All,
Update on USDCAD. The bears made a new swing high before it plunged down south hitting my stop at break even in the process.
I am re-shorting the pair at 1.0312. Buy stop at 25 pips above.
Have a nice day everyone.
Tricky indeed. The overall trend is still being controlled by the bears. Major support on the weekly is still some 250 pips away. But Iâd take buying opportunities from here if the market gives us clues to do so.
Thank you for the positive comment.
Cheers.
Good strategy mate. It is important to trade at breakeven.
I always move my SL to B.E after 25 + pips movement.
Then leave the trade till hit my TP . No worries if the trade turned other side and came to take my SL at B.E.
Hello Bull,
Really like the way you trade with the analysis.
Are you a full time trader ?
I tried to do the same, but very often price hit break even, my trade closes and I am left with 1-2 pip profit, but the price continue to move in profit direction. Do you have thats kind of situation? How do you coop with it.
Hey Bull and Brendad, you can also use a fixed trail stop that I find more secure. Do you know that works?