My goal as a trader to make money short term, medium term and long term. I dont have one specific model by which I trade the markets, rather I use the “tools” that I keep picking up by spending hours on charts whilst discussing ideas here and getting questions I have answered to help me improve.
Price Action is pretty much the skeleton of my setup, but not just patterns - Im starting to understand how to trade static levels and also momentum moves!
So that particular trade was part momentum, part static levels… And if the market broke above S1 pivot I would have doubled up my positions!
Sorry for the late response. Been a quiet trading day for me with the FOMC. FYI, I generally avoid having pending orders open prior to events like this which can be so tricky and change things tremendously. So I only traded some short term intraday stuff during early London, then got out.
If the FOMC wasn’t there, I’d still be interested in the pullbacks. But as you can see, the event changed everything as the EU had its largest pip upmove in years.
As to now, its hard to want to be bearish short term with the current heavy bullish intraday momentum, so medium term will wait for a deeper pullback, while short term look for longs as the USD appears to be unwinding some of its strength as of late.
there were actually signs of some slowing before the doji, which statistically are not good at predicting reversals.
but closing above the 20ema by itself would not confirm the bull trend.
for example, there were 3 prior bull closes in late june which did not end the bull trend. so we cannot think a simple close above the 20ema by itself will = bull trend.
we have to look at the overall context and structure, not just a single close as many closes above the 20ema in a down trend fail, and are simply signals for the with trend players to take a new position.
in retrospect I might have bought above 20EMA close because:
Longer lower shadow/leg after the long red candle, might be slowing… not sure at this point…
Inside bar in the next candle, market being undecided a little more sign of reversal…
Next bar is doji, evidence of reversal getting stronger…
Long green bar, some bullish momentum…
Slowing just before 20 EMA would cancel some bullish signs…
Closing above now would strengthen/confirm reversal and bullish trend?
can you post a chart so I can see what you are seeing?
also with comments on the chart?
otherwise i have to extrapolate, and your charts may look different than mine
gr8 thanks
so my general rule is that trends usually end when they encounter counter-trend impulsive moves that usually take out a huge amount of the prior candles with just a few
this would qualify in my eyes
although it should be noted we don’t really look at doji’s as statistically they are not reliable for much
ironically we talked about this very same trade in our price action course as we spent a lot of time going over this one and its various components
Hi Chris, thank you for your feedback. The overall trend was downward prior to the FOMC news. However, do you think that there might be a correction in the EURUSD once the dust settles and the downward trend could resume?
Looking at the daily chart of the EURUSD, I’ve spotted a strong resistance that the pair hit yesterday and another prior resistance. I think an aggressive short would be near yesterdays resistance near 1.3175 and a conservative one would be at the resistance above near 1.3379. What do you think?
I think in the short term the trend has already turn extremely bullish with the bull trend reversing weeks of losses. If you wanna go short you should wait for the PA to say so…
The Aussie was just as shaken as the the EU after the FOMC.
Looking at the daily time frame, the pair is up to the EMA 20 and has been loosing ground in the past 4 hours.
Two daily candles clearing the PA from the past two weeks looks like an early indication that we may not be going short
on the EU any time soon. That really looks like the beginning of an impulsive move upwards.
This trade has executed shortly after I took this screenshot. Its the NZDUSD. I saw the bias was going down, so I positioned myself to take advantage of that.
Im going for a big target here of about 5:1, might take something of the table after 1:1… Im going to have to wait and see… There are some pivot points in the way which I have to consider too…
EDIT: I took half of the table at 1:1 and moved to breakeven at 0.5:1, Im riding this baby all the way to S2 hopefully, and if we dont make it, I already grabbed some good pips so im totally in control.
