Up 28% in 4 months. What's my next step?

It isn’t about what you can contribute. Just being open and willing is all most ask and receive there man. All are welcome if only they come from a position of intent to learn or share. Atleast that is what i give and take from the chat.

Good pippin,

Chubs

It light of people getting 100% percent returns and making 54 trades on several pairs per day, I should explain my system a bit.

First: I don’t like sitting in front of a screen watching graphs. The computer does that for me.

The logic typically places 10 orders per day but gets filled an average of once every 2 days. Losses are capped at 15-25 pips and wins are typically in the range of 45 to 150 pips. When it wins, it wins big. It never holds a position longer than 2 hours - but usually 15 minutes.

It only trades Euros. And I believe that it’s major strength is consistency. It’s mood never changes, it never gets tired. It never gets distracted. It never doubles the account in one day, but it will never blow up, either.

Best of all, I am not a freaked out currency trader chasing phantoms in the graphs at 3 in the morning.

its actually a wonderful time for investors, at least i find it so — doctors, lawyers and 3 indican chiefs i know have pulled money out of equities and when they see the results from forex trading that are produced, they go bonkers — tie me down and force extremely large packets of money into my pockets, forcing me to sign their contracts to avoid being “kneecapped !”

[B]BUT ---- and this is a significant BUT ---- they have to see the proof of the pudding FIRST ![/B]

BEING a semi serious little gnome, living in a well decorated cave with a stream that runs through it (one of only two rivers that flow NORTH in NYS) and attended to by two sisters of otherworldly talents and beauty, it is up to ME to prove what i can do for THEM because the accoutrements of even a well lived life do NOT impress brain surgeons !

so while there certainly might be possibilities of customers on this site, a detailed statement, showing profit and loss, floaters and drawdowns (the standard MT4 detailed statement !) might get some hearts pumping, cash flowing and the world beating a path to your better forex mousetrap !

after all, one can advertise like mad (although ILLEGAL for hedge funds and non-mutuals), but sooner or later someone is gonna want to TASTE the pudding you so gloriously speak of !

[B]im also a bit curious as to how a system can make 10 picks a day, not execute for a few days, and then make 50 - 150 pips in two hours on the EURUSD which is VERY VERY VERY VERY HARD TO DO with that currency in that time span - - - - - - - IN FACT . . . . . . . NO, i better hold my tongue ![/B]

just my little grubby thoughts on the matter, and not representative of any institution, website or Mafia Don !

enjoy and trade well

mp

[I][B]Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence – BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !!
[/B][/I]

a few observation-

though your sys will not double the money in a day, but well it can wipe the account clean-mathematically that is possible. improbable but not impossible.

On a side not, there may be nothing wrong about chasing phantoms at 3 in the morning-for I still remember my college days chasing all kinds of phantoms at 3 in the morning (though they were not fiscal oriented they nevertheless were sublime and stimulating) and to date I wish I could get those years back :wink:

enjoy and trade well

Tex

Though i do understand how monotonous it can be staring at a chart like the EUR/USD during the first half of the Asian session…(like watching grass grow), I still believe even that would be better than trusting my money to a program even of my own design. Well especially of my own design as I have know idea how to design one.

Point being, the EA only knows to do what it is told to do. The trader has the opportunity to use indicators, oscillators, time of day or night, news events, and all sorts of other sources of data to determine lot size, t/p points, and stops (or outs) that an EA can’t possibly comprehend.

I stand by my position on this one. The only thing better that I could possibly imagine than trading my own money would be a clone of myself doing the trading exactly the way I do. I don’t see that happening in my lifetime, so I will stick to my little boxes full of light and promise and plug away, tediously earning every pip I can.

Live well, love long and good pippin,

Chubs

EA can easily take all of that into account, with the possible exception of news (and I’m not even sure about that).

I’ll spill a little beans here and mention that my logic is based in chaos theory. You can be as skeptical as you like, but if March turns out well, that will be the 8th consecutive profitable month. No 100% winners but no 80% drawdown, either.

It seems to me like all of you have rock star syndrome, which is of course what drew me to forex in the begining. However, it’s learning to humbly accept two things that puts one in the rareified air of consistency.

They are:

  1. Being happy with a 10% monthly return.
  2. Accepting that you cannot EVER predict the future.

If you can’t accept that last one, I’m afraid you are doomed.

Slowandsteady, in which case CRACK ON! Go live, stop thinking about it, and get moving. It means nothing till your money is on the line. There is no system on earth that works forever, but there are windows of opportunity for you to strike while one is hot. If you’ve made a system, and you’ve got real confidence in how it’s making money (not just that it is, but you can see the conditions of why it works), then leverage it hard, get as much money as you can and extract as much profit out of it.

In relation to your last two points, there are plenty of mechanical strategies that have groundings in exploiting the randomness of the markets, but to say you can never predict the future is inherently wrong. This means that historical prices have absolutely no bearing on future prices. If you’ve been trading any length of time, you’ll already know the answer to that.

Good luck with your strat, but for crying out loud, don’t sit on it.

Made some calls to get folks in on this and I am hearing “I like the numbers, I just need to unload some real estate and I’ll put in 100k to start…”

DOH!

Incidently, this is not something that I can just leverage the hell out of. Part of the strict management is to never use more than 10% of the cash.

My first program 3 years ago was earning 600 pips per month for 3 months, then… 100, 50, -150, -300… You get the picture.

I saw that I would be re-writing the logic every 2 months at best and suffering from HUGE swings in profitability that are not condusive to long-term
growth.

This current strategy has cranked out 10% for 7 consecutive months during the worst meltdown and volatility in history. It’s seen the EUR go from 1.6 to 1.25 in 500 pip per day moves and week long doldrums.

Pretty safe to say that it is nothing like anything anybody has ever seen before and that I know as much about this subject as your average shlep.

Alright, I confess, I was being contrarian to see how excited you got - sorry.
But what I’d really say, is, if you haven’t already, approach the system afresh as if you were the world’s biggest cynic, determined to prove why it’s rubbish. Some pointers:

  • you’re right, worse conditions in history. However, this in itself makes some strategies work right now, that won’t when volatility dies down (I estimate we’ve got at least a year more of crazy swings. We’ll see)
  • benchmark it against randomness. Work out your R:R, and compare it to coin tosses. 1 in 10 could easily be fluke. 1 in 200 is interesting. This gives you an idea of validity of your edge
  • put some (small) money live on it immediately. You need to make sure real-world matches up with simulated, and to discount postdictive errors (calculations based on data that isn’t available at the time you make the trade).

Proper testing is time-consuming, laborious, and for all I know, you might have already done it. But if it stands up to harsh scrutiny and is reproducing your test results in the real world, then you can look at drawing money in and ramping it up.

Best of luck!

LOL, well on forums, you never know who’s an idiot and who’s being cheeky. At any rate, the system has been running with real money ($100) for 7 months. 5 of those months were using a “client’s” account, so the results could be shopped around - not in my name or my buddy’s name.

After years of backtesting, I determined that it was wasted effort and decided that only real testing with real money would be worthwhile. I got quite a bit older in the process, but at least there is no question about the effectiveness.

I’m SURE it can be improved, but obviously that will involve parallel testing and probably some serious coding power.

We have gotten 2 client accounts open to the tune of $5000 at FXCM set up as master-sub PAM system (I think that’s what they call it).

Will hit the button on Sunday night for month 6 (official).

I attached a gif of the trading graph generated by Alpari. Incindently, those thieves reversed 3 of our big wins (70-150 pips) claiming that we were the only account that got those prices and “shouldn’t have”. If it weren’t for that, that max drawdown would have been about half what it is and the total profit would be 10% higher.

Damn slippery cossak sluts. Anyway, we are with FXCM now.


interesting graph with much in the way of drawdowns obviously. Now I would be the LAST person on earth to sneer at them, but its understandable whey you never use more than 10% of your money.

If what happened with alpari was on a real account, they OWE you — if THEIR server payed at the price, then thats all she wrote ! and of course, you can easily check the price anywhere else — a few pips difference is normal, but not a reversal of trade.

so we will see in the future, but a cleaner line would be a wonderful thing — people being people RARELY stick to whats correct, and they would be going over that (apparently necessary) 10% quickly.

my opinion

mp

My buddy and I both called to Alpari to protest after they reversed the settled trades 48 hours or so after the fact. We were told “If you read our bylaws, blah blah blah…” Fact is that they are a Russian company and that’s all you need to know. We only used them because at the time we could not find another broker with mp4 up and running with a $100 minimum on real cash.

As far as your last statement. There is no way to go over 10%. The system is not for sale, so we retain full control. The math says we don’t go over 10%. Period. The point here is to provide monthly, positive returns so we (or whoever invests) can always count on it. No Rock Star Syndrome.

enjoy and trade well

mp

Because pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered

Just banked 9.2% for March and turned off the server. This is gonna be hugetastic. :cool: