US DATA PREVIEW: Economists at Nomura expect the 8:30am ET Wed headline CPI “to decline by 0.20% m-o-m (+0.96% y-o-y) in February. As has been the case for the prior two months, another decline in energy prices will exert downward pressure on headline CPI in February. In particular, we expect motor fuel prices to decline by 12.2% m-o-m on a seasonally adjusted basis.” They add that “actual retail gasoline prices fell sharply in reaction to lower crude oil prices even though February is usually the month when gasoline prices typically pick up” so “we forecast that energy prices declined 5.3% m-o-m in February. Food prices probably increased only moderately by 0.1% m-o-m following a flat reading in the previous month as restaurant menu prices (food away from home) continued to increase at a decent pace with food prices at grocery stores (food at home) essentially unchanged during the month. Our forecast for CPI NSA is 236.968.”
