The US dollar experienced a very wild day of price action, which is indicative of the low volume trading we typically see at this time of year. In fact, the currency had spent much of the morning making headway, but between 14:00 ET and 14:30 ET the DXY index spiked lower, leaving it as the weakest of the majors. In US news, the final reading of US GDP was confirmed at -1.0 percent for Q2, which was in line with previous estimates. While this was actually better than forecasts that had called for a reading of -1.4 percent, the news failed to spur optimism in the markets, as evidenced by the subsequent drop in equities and carry trades. A breakdown in the GDP results showed mostly upward revisions, including personal consumption (-1.0 percent from -1.2 percent), exports (-5.0 percent from -7.0 percent), and government consumption (+6.4 percent from +5.6 percent). On the flip side, gross private investment was revised down to -24.4 percent from -20.4 percent, due mostly to steeper declines in nonresidential structures, while the change in inventories was revised down to -$159.2 billion from -$141.1 billion.
Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 during the week ending August 22 to 570,000 while continuing claims tumbled by 119,000 during the week ending August 15 to 6,133,000, the lowest since the second week of April. Ultimately, the data suggests that next week’s non-farm payrolls report could reflect another month of slowing job losses.
Upcoming income and consumption data for the US is projected to reflect fairly lackluster results on the economy. First, personal income in anticipated to rise by 0.1 percent for the month of July, but it is worth noting that past increases in income have been due purely to surging transfer payments, which include government benefits like unemployment, while wage and salary growth has fallen steadily (-4.7 percent in June from a year ago). Next, personal spending is forecasted to rise by 0.2 percent for the third straight month in July, but based on the steep decline we saw in consumer confidence during that period, this reading could be somewhat disappointing. If this is indeed the case, the US dollar could gain slightly on flight-to-safety. On the other hand, surprisingly strong results could hammer the currency even lower as carry trade demand rises.
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