The US dollar, and risk trends in general, showed little response to the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report this afternoon, despite the fact that ten of the twelve Fed districts reported “weaker conditions or declines in economic activity.” The sole exceptions were the Philadelphia and Chicago Fed districts, and even those reported that their respective economies “remained weak.”
Going forward, the districts said that the outlook for “near-term improvement in economic conditions” was “poor,” as growth is not anticipated to recover before late 2009 or early 2010. More specifically, the report said that consumer spending, tourist activity, and manufacturing activity were quite weak, while residential real estate markets “remained largely stagnant” and demand for commercial real estate “weakened significantly.” Furthermore, credit availability continued to be “tight” as banks indicated further drops in business loan demand and a “slight deterioration in credit quality for businesses and households.”
The labor market picture looked even worse, as the Beige Book said that unemployment has risen in all areas due to “rising layoffs and hiring freezes,” which has contributed to a reduction or elimination in “upward wage pressures.” The report went on to say that multiple “reports pointed to outright reductions in hourly compensation costs, through wage reductions and reduction or elimination of some employment benefits.”