US Election Day

Hi Everyone,

Tuesday is election day, and I trade the EUR/USD and my system depends most on volatility. Should I not trade from Tuesday to Friday??

Thanks everyone!!!

lol thats up to you. No one on here can predict the future and how volatile the market will be. For that pair one could expect a slow down in anticipation of the results of the election but there is no real telling.

If you have a system then follow your system. If your system says stay out then stay out.

Well my system tells me nothing, I see how it behaves, and for example, during the hurricane, it was a better option to close the system and not trade that week.

Thanks for your reply :slight_smile: :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

Well see what I was trying to get at is no one can answer your question because none of us know your system. Also most of the answers you get (including mine) will be pure speculation. Most of us here have not been trading over a few years. So not many on here would know from experience what US elections will bring. I will say though there was not a significant drop in volatility lead up to the Greece elections. Not sure if that makes a difference or not. Again though I would expect tomorrow to be slow as many in the USA (including me) go to the polls to vote.

Personally, I would stay out of the mix until the London session opens early Thursday morning. Unless the election has been called late Tuesday night…then I might kick it in at London open on Wednesday.

I’ve posted this before, but I’ll do so again. I think that this entire YEAR has been dampened by the upcoming elections. Pull open a EUR/USD chart and switch it to the Daily timeframe. Scroll back to 2008 and then start moving forward. What do you see? You see that the daily range, on average, was pretty large. Most days over 100 pips with many days in excess of 180 pips and more than a handful of 200+ days. Lots of intraday volitility.

Then, all of a sudden, as soon as we crossed into the new year in 2012, this four-year+ pattern dried up. Volititily has been down the entire year. Now, most days are BELOW 100 pips. You get very few 180 pip days and 200+ days come once in a blue moon. This in spite of the fact that there has been just as many problems in the various E/U countries as in the past 2 years.

Now, either all the big players got together and collectively decided that they were not going to be moving the market this year, or everyone decided that this election is more important to the world currency markets than we even give ourselves credit for and everyone just decided to take a year off until it’s known who’s going to be at the helm of the ship.

If that’s the case, then there is a lot of pend-up price movement that’s about to burst through once the election has been determined. If price starts moving heavily on intraday charts more in line with was we saw in 2009, 2010, and 2011 vs how things have been playing out in 2012…then we’ll know I was right.

So if volatility is where you make your money, then the sooner this election is over (regardless of who wins) the better. The worst-case-scenario would be the one found in this article here: How long will Election Day last in Ohio? - Yahoo! News

What I have read is:
Obama->printing [B]a lot[/B] more money->risk on
Romney->printing more money->risk off

As my experience and follow some news,

Obama win => USD would be DOWN
Romney win => USD would be UP

I’m not sure. :slight_smile:

That’s the answer to one of my question.
Can u explain a bit more please?

i DEFINITELY think the markets will be moving…Romney is not for printing\easing at all…and he will bring certainty, which is what has been missing these last almost 4 years. You just watch…of course if he loses, more of the same —

How will things be different under Romney? Romney the same guy who cant explain his tax plan? Politicians are all the same…

LOL Romney has no say in that, he’d only be the president.

I don’t know what you want me to explain more of. I just think that things have been moving a lot less this year than they have in the past 4 years. I think that the strange nature of this change happening right as soon as the new year came about has no logical explanation other than the most influential pairs are all tied to the dollar and the rest of the world is looking to America more than ever for some type of direction since the people over in Europe don’t seem to be all that “together” on stuff these days. Since the dollar dominate the biggest currency pairs and people want to know what tract America is going to take in the next 4 years, they just all have decided to sit on the sidelines for 2012 unless major news releases have come about like the QE3 thing, and whatever moved the markets south over the entire month of May and then the first few days of July.

Others will say that so many different things factor into price movement that something like the election could not have a dominant effect. I think those people are wrong and the election is THE reason why price has moved 100 pips or less more days than not this year.

My guess is that people have some type of bias already fixed in their minds as to which direction the market is going to move over the course of the next year depending on who wins and are just waiting to find out before they start placing their bets.

If this is the case, though, I have no idea which direction these people are going to move the market. I’m willing just to try and hitch a ride whichever direction it goes. Preferably, I’d like to see it go in BOTH directions every day. That is, I wish that price span 300 pips or more from low to high on the typical day with most of that action taking place between London open and the noon est each day. I wouldn’t care if the market ranged for years as long as the intraday movement was big.

I’ve been wondering what’s up since open this week. I’ve been paper trading for a few weeks, and things have been moving well enough to make some decent profits (or losses). Since Sunday, it seems like things are just sitting and not moving at all. So, I’ve been wondering if this is due to the election, or does the market have days/weeks where it just doesn’t move? I’m not talking 100 pips, I’m talking 20 pips - maybe. I’m in an open position right now with the EUR/USD and the EUR/GBP, and neither one is doing anything. It’s quite frustrating, and a stark contrast to last week.

Who really cares…?

What ever happens there will be an explanation after the event. Even I can analyse like a pro when looking over historical data.

Damn right all politicians are the same lying weasels… does not matter what country your from.

EUR/USD up 75 pips in just over 2 hours and holding now that the election’s been called. I’m just hoping this type of behavior continues and at the same pace. Big moves up or down every few hours…for years.

It happens routinely. Quiet days are one of the best times to setup pending orders and ride breakouts.

I would expect the USD to plummet… long-term, forever, into the deep, dark abyss. Under Obama the US will try to spend its way to prosperity and borrow its way out of debt. This is not a political commentary… just my analysis of long-term fundamentals which, essentially, drive the long-term direction of the USD.

I think the ECB has plans of equally spending on leverage … Read up on the OMT

I wish the same.I don’t care if the open and close of the market for the next year is the same.Literally,i have scrolled back the charts and i was shocked to see the intraday currency movement.I think 2 or 3 this type of years of trading will be enough to start dreaming about luxurious life. :wink: