USD/CAD Dips to Be Used As Position Build Opportunity (Daily Classical)

• Euro likely to stall above 1.4400
• Dollar/Yen seen towards 91.75
• Cable rallies to be sold
• Dollar/Swiss well supported
• Dollar/Cad dips to be bought

EUR/USDNo change from Monday…The pair remains well supported above 50-Day SMA for now and any pullbacks have been met with solid buying back into the familiar multi-day range between 1.4200 and 1.4400. While our bearish outlook for the pair is being tested at present, we continue to hold onto the idea that the market will eventually roll over and establish below the 50-Day SMA to force a shift in the structure. As such, any rallies above 1.4400 should be met with solid offers ahead of a resumption of declines. Only a sustained break above 1.4445 would give reason for pause. STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE; LOOK TO SELL

USD/JPY – Our overall outlook for the pair remains bearish, with the market locked in a well defined medium-term downtrend. Three days of a short-term corrective rally appear to be at an end, with the market once again rolling back over on Tuesday to take out Monday’s low. A lower top is now sought out by 93.30 ahead of the next drop towards 91.75 over the coming hours. Below 91.75 will expose the critical multi-year trend lows at 87.15. STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE; LOOK TO SELL

GBP/USDNo change from Monday…Rallies should be limited to the 1.6500-1.6600 area with the market in the process of attempting to carve out a major head & shoulders-like top on the daily chart that would ultimately project a measured move drop back towards 1.5000 over the medium-term. Look for a break below 1.6115 to help confirm bearish bias, while only back above 1.6700 gives reason for concern. STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE; LOOK TO SELL

USD/CHFNo change from Monday…Continues to chop around within a very well defined multi-week range with the price currently residing at the lower end of the range. We like the idea of looking to keep playing the multi-week range with any breaks to fresh 2009 lows seen as limited. Ultimately, only a close back below psychological barriers at 1.0500 would give reason for re-think. Back above 1.0715 should help to reaffirm constructive outlook and accelerate gains to next resistance by 1.0835. STRATEGY: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO BUY

USD/CAD – We entered a long position on Friday and price action has not been favorable with the market dropping back towards the recent trend lows by 1.0630. While it is not our custom to remove stops, our core view on the currency remains intensely bullish and any dips should be limited from here. As such, we have removed our 1.0695 stop-loss and will instead look to increase our exposure on a dip to 1.0640 today. We will re-issue a fresh stop-loss for the position into the New York close and for now will keep it open (no stop-loss temporarily). [B]POSITION: LONG @1.0895 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE, STOP OPEN FOR NOW. STRATEGY: INCREASE EXPOSURE AND BUY AT 1.0640 TODAY. REMOVE 1.0640 BUY RECOMMENDATION IF NOT TRIGGERED BY CLOSE (5PM NY TIME).


Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for
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