•Euro trade remains choppy; stops trailed to cost on short
•Dollar/Yen confined to inside day price action
•Cable stalls shy of critical highs; keeps topping structure intact for now
•Dollar/Swiss surges to clear key barriers by 1.1000; confirms basing
EUR/USD – While we retain out bearish bias, it has become increasingly difficult to determine where we go from here. Key levels to watch over the coming sessions come in by 1.4175 and 1.3750 with a break above or below ultimately required to force a shift in the structure. Above 1.4175 exposes a retest of the 2009 highs by 1.4340, while back under 1.3750 will keep the medium-term topping prospects intact and potentially open deeper setbacks towards 1.3250 over the coming weeks. Position: SHORT @1.4010 FOR OPEN OBJECTIVE; REVISED STOP @1.4010.
USD/JPY – Price action in the pair has been extremely choppy with the latest sharp pullback forcing a shift in our bias and suggesting that deeper setbacks are now on the horizon. Look for a break below 94.90 to open a more significant drop towards the 93.55-85 area which has offered itself as a solid support zone in 2009. Back above Friday’s 97.20 highs will be required to delay bearish outlook. Strategy: STAND ASIDE; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
GBP/USD – The rally on Wednesday has stalled out ahead of the previous 1.6620 lower top to keep hopes for a topping formation intact, reaffirmed with the sharp pullback off of the 1.6605 daily highs to daily opening levels. Ultimately, the key levels to watch above and below now come in by 1.6665 and 1.6185, with a break above or below required for a clearer directional bias. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO SELL.
USD/CHF – Extremely bullish price action on Wednesday with the market surging by 3%, to clear critical short-term trend and psychological resistance by 1.1000. This helps to confirm prospects for medium-term basing and now opens the door to more significant upside over the coming days and weeks back towards the 1.1500 area. Look for setbacks to now be well supported ahead of 1.0750. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO BUY.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail [email protected] and you will be added to the “distribution” list.
Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:
“Tech Talk” – A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
“Morning Slices” – Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes “Trade of the Day”).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)
“Indicator of the Day” – A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)
“Cross Country” – A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)
“Scandi Daily” – A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact [email protected] if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)
“Daily Classical” – A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)