USD/CHF may continue to give back the advance from the December low (0.8736) as a descending channel takes shape.
By : David Song, Strategist
US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF
USD/CHF clears the February low (0.8913) after failing to trade back above the 50-Day (0.9054), and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the December low (0.8736) as a descending channel takes shape.
USD/CHF Holds Below 50-Day SMA to Form Descending Channel
USD/CHF extends the decline from the start of the week to register a fresh yearly low (0.8556), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back at its lowest level since September amid the weakness in the exchange rate.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
In turn, the RSI may show the bearish momentum gathering pace should it continue to approach oversold territory, and a move below 30 in the oscillator is likely to be accompanied by a further decline in USD/CHF like the price action from last year.
With that said, USD/CHF may attempt to test the December low (0.8736) as it carves a series of lower highs and lows, but the exchange rate may consolidate over the remainder of the week as it comes up against channel support.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView
- USD/CHF seems to be trading within a descending channel as it clears the February low (0.8913), with a close below the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone raising the scope for a move towards the 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension) region.
- Next area of interest comes in around the December low (0.8736), but USD/CHF may struggle to extend the recent series of lower highs and lows as it comes up against channel support.
- Lack of momentum to close below 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone may push USD/CHF back towards the weekly high (0.9031), with a break/close above the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region negating the descending channel.
Additional Market Outlooks
GBP/USD Eyes December High as Ascending Channel Remains Intact
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Rally Persists with Trump Tariffs on Track
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Vulnerable to ECB Rate Cut
US Dollar Forecast: USD/JPY Rebound Retrained by Slowdown in US PCE
— Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
Click the website link below to read our Guide to central banks and interest rates in 2025
https://www.cityindex.com/en-au/market-outlooks-2025/FY-central-banks-outlook/
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.