USD/CHF Is Crowded

Capture
Data as of WED APR 14


Data as of THU APR 15

FXCM customers continue pressing shorts into EURUSD rally.
My preference here is to actually sell the Swissie, rather than buy Euros b/c of the CHF extreme readings.

As long as USDCHF stays under 9250, bears are in control.
A breach of 9260 likely negates any further near-term downside.
If 92 gets taken out, look-out below.

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Really like this! thanks for sharing :slight_smile:

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Cheers for sharing

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@CraigForex2020 @reece22 How are you guys trading the sell off? Have you moved your stops / booked profit / etc?

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Took down 1/3 of position @ .9140.
Still short 20k @ .9214.

Swissie buyers continue to outpace sellers, up to 6.8 now. The near term trend is still down, and this bounce off 9130 was profit taking. The correction pulled right back up into 9190 where the heavy selling came earlier this week and appears to be well defended so far this AM. I loaded back up on shorts @ 9190 targeting a retest of the recent lows. Would like to see some impulses to the downside here, or, I’ll prob take the trade down as a scratch or small winner.

Retail getting less long over night - SSI dropping from 6.8 to 5.32. This is the lowest reading in > 1 week.

Swissie also compressing / bouncing off 100/200 EMAs, so, don’t need to stay in this any longer.
Flat today- sold em at 9190 bought back at 9160.

Sitting tight for now.

Retail getting long again. Swissie is the most extreme of majors.
They’re more long than my original post 14 days ago- nearly 90% of flow has been on the ask.

Price failed @ 3 times @ 200MA, 100MA, and 236FIB.
And, 20EMA about to crossover?

Similar extremes on USDCAD, but, the risk to reward is better here. Loonie is already at yearly lows- Swissie clearly has more to potentially fall.

Fed induced rally likely trapped new buyers, and, sent some false confidence to those feeling the squeeze right now.

Rally + 100% reversal and new relative lows printed- closing on the lows of the day.
Sellers did not let up 1inch up through the close.

Point A- Key swing point
Point B- Breakout + retest of swing, plus base of leg that printed new highs
Point C- As stated above, key convergence of multiple MAs plus 382 FIB found sellers

It’s more likely we see a retest of the Point A/B level given the amount of impulsive selling and overall bearish dominance.

As the day went on, in just 10 hours time retail has continued to buy into this selling pressure.
Swis5

We’re back at a reading of 6.8, which is higher than the previous extreme I posted 2 weeks ago w/ a reading of 6.2. The highest YTD reading on the Swissie was back in Feb when it hit ~12. If we’re taking that as the level that retail will capitulate at, there is clearly more room to move.

The one thing I’ve noticed about the SSI data over the years, is that 70-90% of the time it is reliable at firing off a decent input value to your trading model for consideration on taking a new position in the direction of the near-term trend. However, when it hits relative extremes, retail is actually pretty good at defining tops and bottoms. Just something to be aware of- and, I’ve even heard FXCM analysts (back in the day) talk about this phenomenon.

I always book profit, i have a trader manager that closes 80% of my position when it hits 1R and then lets the remaining 20% go for 5R. Once it hits 1R it moves my SL to BE :slight_smile:

Booked another scalp today:

The current D1 candle is too indecisive for my liking, so I got flat.
Might see a pullback here, or, just continuation. Either way, I’m still short-biased as long as retail continues to buy into the weakness.

Will post another SSI reading soon.