Is it possible to pick this one? There is no indication of any real trend change on any time frame.
I watched this from about 17:55, realized the uptrend on several time frames and went long at about 18:25 GMT thinking the retracement was over and we’re going back up. 10 minutes later it hit my 6 pip SL. Next candle moved north at a pretty good pace, and still confident in my decision I go long again, with a larger SL. 15 minutes later I’m out again, this time for 16 pips. I only made 12 pips the whole day yesterday.
How did/would other folks handle that situation, or is that just one of those surprises that nobody can see?
Needless to say I’m a glutten for punishment, as I just went long again at 19:00 after it went 30 pips the other way. This time without a stop. I see two candlesticks going up, so maybe this time it is making the turn. I know it’s going up. If it doesn’t, I’m going to have a pda stylus sticking out of my eyeball.
I takes me hours to make a dozen pips, while price barely peeps over 0 pips, then -1, -2, 0 -3, on and on, candle after candle, but I can lose pips 10, 20 at a time in a quarter of the time. Sometimes I don’t get it. I guess I should go have my eyeball looked at…
This is my favorite trade where I’m past the point of no return in the hole, and all I can do is wait it out. No more trades for me this week I wager. I have another bad trade I’m waiting out as well, thats -230 in the hole. I was only looking for 10 pips profit. Thats all I ever look for.
It appears (judging by your comments on this post anyhow) that you�re trading blind, without any concrete structure or action plan.
You�re also trying to pick off trades at a time of day (post London close) where most of the heavy volumes have subsided & shut up shop for the day.
6 & 16 pip stop-loss back-up on Dollar/Yen?? You kidding me?
No wonder you�re getting smoked.
You said yourself, the charts on this pair are a mess. So why are you even attempting to trade it?
You absolutely got to get some structure otherwise you�re a dead man walking out there buddy.
I�d close your live account down now if I were you & clear the decks. Don�t go anywhere near another live account until you can put together at least a 6 mth (consistently successful) PnL run together.
If you want to pick a strategy off the shelf to demo, you could do worse than get your head round either of the 1st 2 options. My sisters thread will introduce you to the concepts & benefits of support & resistance observation. All 3 will get you on a base level to at least offer some structure & foundation to your trading.
Forget pissing around with indicators, EA�s, amateur hedging crap, moving average crossover nonsense or any other comical garbage. You�re wasting your time & money on all that horse siht.
Simple, price action based activity will offer you a leg up into what really goes on out there.
Work smart, not hard�.& stay the hell away from these ridiculous, complicated, goof ball systems based around nothing more than hot air.
Not sure I can see your reasoning here for taking this trade on?
As I look at it we are at a quiet time of the day, plus all the yen
pairs are in turmoil, stuck in a sideways trend. The stochs were in very
oversold territory, over 80 on the 15M timeframe.
The percentage play was to go short, but even for that there was no
clear signal, so stay out.
I have though just taken a trade to illustrate a greater percentage
chance, as you can see in the thumbnail, there is an ob at my SR line
of 155.64, stochs are crossing up just above 20.
EUR/JPY
long 155.602
S/L is the last swing low 155.372. (This point will prove me wrong)
T/P take your pick, conservative, 26 pips, 1:1
or at this time of day as much as can be taken.
This is just to illustrate the cognetive process which goes into any
trade.
PS whoops Jos & I must have been answering your post at the
same time, mine took a lot longer to pull together though, but I
can only second her opinion.
I do have an action plan, although I do make my share of mistakes. This time though I actually saw price going up and was dumbfounded it was going down. Otherwise I’m up 7% for the last 30 days. I could be doing better if it wasn’t for my careless moves.
6 & 16 pip stop-loss back-up on Dollar/Yen?? You kidding me?
No wonder you�re getting smoked.
I’m only going for 6-10 pips at a time. 16 pips S/L is way too much for my profit expectations?
You said yourself, the charts on this pair are a mess. So why are you even attempting to trade it?
I don’t get to choose my trading times, so I have to make the best out of when I do get time.
You absolutely got to get some structure otherwise you�re a dead man walking out there buddy.
I�d close your live account down now if I were you & clear the decks. Don�t go anywhere near another live account until you can put together at least a 6 mth (consistently successful) PnL run together.
I agree. My account is tiny though and I moved to live to see the difference between demo and live as far as execution behavior.
If you want to pick a strategy off the shelf to demo, you could do worse than get your head round either of the 1st 2 options. My sisters thread will introduce you to the concepts & benefits of support & resistance observation. All 3 will get you on a base level to at least offer some structure & foundation to your trading.
I’ve read James thread a couple of times now. Great stuff in that thread, for sure. If the conditions ever line up for that system when I have time to trade I think I’d jump for joy.
I’ve been reading alternative technical templates - slowly. I seem to get lost in that thread a bit.
I’m taking what systems I’ve read about and trying to mash everything up into something I can use when I have time to trade. If I open my platform right now, it’s either long or short. I don’t have the luxury to trade during London/New York overlap except maybe a minute or two here and there. I do manage to catch the Sydney/Tokyo, but that is hit or miss as well.
Aside from that, I’m basically scalping for single digit pips.
Forget pissing around with indicators, EA�s, amateur hedging crap, moving average crossover nonsense or any other comical garbage. You�re wasting your time & money on all that horse siht.
I do have a 5 and 10 ma cross on my charts. I don’t really use to open a trade since it’s never crossing when I open a chart, but in hindsight, it’s always right. I do use support and resistance, but the more I watch, the more that picking correct support and resistance is very subjective. I don’t think I can master s/r all that quickly. Stochs are on my chart since I watch for IB’s, and I keep a MACD on there since I notice bigger moves happen when the MACD crosses 0.
Simple, price action based activity will offer you a leg up into what really goes on out there.
Work smart, not hard�.& stay the hell away from these ridiculous, complicated, goof ball systems based around nothing more than hot air.
I do, there is still a bit of mystery in trading for me though.
It’s funny, while I’ve been typing my reply I missed profit on my bad trade. lol…
Thanks Sweet Pip. It’s not that much pain, I’m just overly sensitive to failure. I was hoping to get feedback on what some other folks might have seen if they where even looking at that pair at the particular time.
Yes I was just responding to the stylus in the eye comment…LOL…
It’s unfortunate that you’re restricted to less than optimal trading sessions. I suppose if you can manage to eventually do well in that case, then you’ll be a better trader for it in the end. Just as long as you realize why it’s more of a challenge.
I guess if this is merely your hobby then it�s no big deal. After all, how many hobbies out there are actually designed, or taken up, to make money? most hobbies are a money pit.
However, if this exercise is part of some long term plan to generate a second, or hopefully primary income stream, then it begins to take on a whole new perspective.
Everything Jos say�s is straight up. If you persist in continuing along this strategy path, you�re going to burn account after account & put yourself through a whole world of slow bleed pain.
You�re most certainly not ready for a live account. Not practically or psychologically. You�re not even at first base. Your broker is rubbing his hands, & will bend over backwards to accommodate & encourage you. Why wouldn�t he? He knows he�s onto a winner.
You say you don�t have the luxury to trade when the conditions are most favorable? Then I�m afraid if you�re looking to trade FX exclusively, you�re wasting your time & money.
Unfortunately, in this business anyhow, you have to adapt to it�s conditions. Not the other way round. If you can�t or won�t facilitate that basic principle, then it�s time to find another hobby or income stream.
The learning curve for a new, totally green entrant is huge. And I mean HUGE. You mentioned that the content on the 301 Moved Permanently thread was a little heavy? That content is as basic as they can make it. They could have gotten a whole lot heavier than that if they chose to, believe me.
That�s basic entry stuff on there. If you can�t get your head around those simple concepts, you�re going to find it awful tough to sniff out & assimilate the other necessary information you need going forward.
Listen to what these guys are telling you. She�s worked a broker (dealing) desk, so too has another of their sisters. We�ve seen this gig at real close quarters for a number of years now, & I can tell you without any shadow of doubt � you�re pissing in the wind adopting these tactics.
Broker desks will eat you for breakfast. They won�t even have to try too hard to earn their commissions, you�ll do it for them. They love you guy�s. Why do you suppose they allow you to open accounts with a couple thousand dollars & 200:1 leverage stacks?
Get real & start setting out your table with realistic goals & expectations. Don�t be another sucker.
This is part of a long term plan and I have no delusions of mastering it in the short term.
Everything Jos say�s is straight up. If you persist in continuing along this strategy path, you�re going to burn account after account & put yourself through a whole world of slow bleed pain.
You�re most certainly not ready for a live account. Not practically or psychologically. You�re not even at first base. Your broker is rubbing his hands, & will bend over backwards to accommodate & encourage you. Why wouldn�t he? He knows he�s onto a winner.
Unfortunately, in this business anyhow, you have to adapt to it�s conditions. Not the other way round. If you can�t or won�t facilitate that basic principle, then it�s time to find another hobby or income stream.
I agree and I feel quite privileged to receive responses from professionals. I take the advice quite seriously. If my account stays positive, I’ll probably still keep it going though.
You say you don�t have the luxury to trade when the conditions are most favorable? Then I�m afraid if you�re looking to trade FX exclusively, you�re wasting your time & money.
Exclusively some day maybe. Right now I’m giving it all the time that is practical.
Are the Tokyo/Sydney sessions worthless?
Right now I’m stuck in a scalping mentality for fear of risk. Demo or live, I have the same fear, so in and out quick is comfortable right now. When I sit down in front of the computer I hang on every pip movement. If I’m up 10 pips I jump for joy, if I’m down 10 pips I feel like a failure. My thoughts are to become comfortable on longer time frames and hopefully set myself up to ride through the London/NY session, maybe on H1 and D1 charts.
The learning curve for a new, totally green entrant is huge. And I mean HUGE. You mentioned that the content on the 301 Moved Permanently thread was a little heavy? That content is as basic as they can make it. They could have gotten a whole lot heavier than that if they chose to, believe me.
That�s basic entry stuff on there. If you can�t get your head around those simple concepts, you�re going to find it awful tough to sniff out & assimilate the other necessary information you need going forward.
It’s not too heavy, it just takes time to digest. I’ve only been here for a couple of months and there are a lot of new concepts to understand. Lot’s of different ideas from one thread to the next. What I do keep close are the concepts of the v-system (I just read through that one on Jocelyns advice and find it similar to other systems finding reversals), the IB system, the cowabunga system, candlestick patterns and the whole idea of reversals. A pretty common theme is found throughout these systems.
I think I may have confused myself by following [I]some[/I] threads to closely though…
So far I’ve payed little attention to fundamental analysis or how the crowd is moving the market. I will most likely re-read the thread several times. I’m reading it now while taken a moment to reply to this thread.
Listen to what these guys are telling you. She�s worked a broker (dealing) desk, so too has another of their sisters. We�ve seen this gig at real close quarters for a number of years now, & I can tell you without any shadow of doubt � you�re pissing in the wind adopting these tactics.
Broker desks will eat you for breakfast. They won�t even have to try too hard to earn their commissions, you�ll do it for them. They love you guy�s. Why do you suppose they allow you to open accounts with a couple thousand dollars & 200:1 leverage stacks?
Get real & start setting out your table with realistic goals & expectations. Don�t be another sucker.
I am listening and appreciate the information. My goals right now are very small. 100 pips a week consistently, while consistently spending less time in front of the screen (by this I mean eventually engaging in longer trades and not hanging on every pip) and make the most out of the time I regularly have available. I think that is a reasonable expectation at this stage of my learning.
The Tokyo shift doesn�t attract any meaningful volumes whatsoever.
Outside of London business hours, any technical measures one utilizes such as support & resistance becomes diluted. Time of day is very important in spot FX when establishing & reacting to key technical levels.
A test of support or resistance will be much more reliable inside the main European trading shift when the participation is in full flow, than it will during the low volume windows of late NY & Tokyo activity.
[I]Those are classic symptoms of someone who doesn�t possess a confident or structured game plan.
You�re �hitting & hoping� & the reason you�re fearful & anxious is because you don�t completely trust your analysis or research info.
I�m not being disrespectful or discouraging when I say this; but you don�t know what you�re doing. That�s why you�re trading under stress, snatching & grabbing at the scraps the market is apparently throwing your way.
Eventually, you�re going to go broke chasing your butt all over the playground.
You�re not going to make it to second base because you don�t have anything structured from which to work from.
Unless you pull the shutters down on what you�re doing now, you�re simply going to make the problem worse. [/I]
