The USDJPY tested the 122.17 breakout point (former resistance) as support this week. The next level of chart resistance is the December 2002 high at 125.73. A confluence of Fibonacci measurements suggests that strength will persist until the 128.00 figure.
The USDJPY tested the 122.17 breakout point (former resistance) as support this week. The next level of chart resistance is the December 2002 high at 125.73. A confluence of Fibonacci measurements suggests that strength will persist until the 128.00 figure. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67 is at 127.97. The 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 is at 128.70 and the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14 is at 128.33. Three long term Fibonacci measurements in close proximity to one another is rare. When this does happen, the level in question tends to act as a magnet.
Channel support has held this week and the decline from 124.13 is in 3 waves, which is corrective. 124.13 should be broken in the next few days while 122.09 remains intact.
[B]JPercentile:[/B] Price is valued as a percentile, measured against the last 21 days (roughly 1 month of trading) for intermediate tops and 52 weeks (1 year) for major tops. Minor tops use either 60 minute or 240 minute charts and the input is 120 (which is 5 days and 20 days). Probability increases that the pair is nearing a top when the JPC indicator reads 100%. A reading of 0% indicates the potential for a bottom. Every top has a reading of 100% but not every reading of 100% is a top. Besides the percent reading we also need to see a turn out of the extreme level (ie. If it reaches 100%, we need to have it pointing downwards and vice versa) to determine whether this is a top or bottom. The box is only checked when we see a turn off of extreme levels in the JPercentile reading.
[B]Elliott Wave:[/B] Standard Elliott Wave Theory, the box is checked when we see a possible 5 waves complete or 3 waves complete (correction).
[B]Significant Support or Resistance Levels:[/B] The box is checked if we have important monthly pivots, or Fibonacci levels capping gains in topping scenarios or providing a support in bottoming scenarios
[B]Volatility:[/B] The box is checked if the currency pair has a volatility level below 8%. If a currency pair has a volatility that is too high, then it has a greater likelihood of experiencing swings that may not be as conducive for top or bottom picking because the potential of spikes could cause stops to be taken out prematurely.
[B]Risk Reversals:[/B] Risk reversal is the difference in volatility (delta) between similar call and put options (1 month, 25 delta in this case). The risk reversal rate is often extreme before market turns.