Though the US calendar printed a number of top market-moving indicators Tuesday, USDJPY managed to hold its range. This suggests a breakout will be deferred until US GDP prints on Friday.
Event Risk UK and Japan
Trading Tip - The quiet conditions in USDJPY are very unusual. Before this congestion band solidified itself, the pair was either making strong breakout moves or moving through tediously, choppy channels. Considering the abnormal state the pair is in, there is considerable danger in betting on a sustained range. Whats more, the US calendar will be pocked by a number of top market-moving indicators that threaten to upset the markets calm. On the other hand, Tuesday saw a number of big surprises on the economic front, yet USDJPY held its range. While this may be partly attributed to where the pair was at during time of release, the lack of activity proved consistent throughout the majors. This suggests that the market is hesitant to take out big levels before US GDP due Friday.
US - The US faces a mixed economic calendar this week, with durable goods forecasted to rebound as the US consumer proves their resilience. However, US dollar trade may be subdued ahead of first quarter GDP. Growth is estimated to have eased back to 1.8 percent from 2.5 percent, which may only exacerbate concerns that the crunch of the housing sector has spread to the rest of the economy. Starting out the following week will be Personal Income, and although the release is predicted to hold at a solid 0.5 percent, price action may continue to ride the sentiment of the GDP figure. The next day, ISM manufacturing is forecasted to edge higher, as a weaker dollar likely helped exporters. However, traders will focus on the employment component along with Wednesdays ADP figure ahead of the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
Japan - There are a considerable number of economic releases scheduled to print this week. However, the top movers are all centered on one day and the real action begins Thursday evening GMT time (which is Friday morning in Tokyo). Employment, spending inflation and factory activity indicators are all due within 20 minutes of each other. The unemployment rate for March will likely draw little attention, since it has held consistently low for months and has yet to recharge growth. Retail sales, household spending, and wage growth, on the other hand, will be essential to fundamental traders outlooks. Tepid wages have given consumption little impetus to accelerate and inflation has failed to grow to levels the central bank deems necessary to consider more frequent rate hikes. However, the BoJ rate decision (which has no official time) still presents sizable event risk.
[B]Data for April 25 - May 2[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Data for April 25 - May 2[/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]US Economic Data[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]Japanese Economic Data[/B]
Apr 25
Durable Goods Orders (MAR)
Apr 26
Overall Hhold Spending (MAR)
Apr 27
GDP Annualized (1Q A)
Apr 26
National CPI (MAR)
Apr 30
Personal Income (MAR)
Apr 26
Retail Trade (MAR)
May 1
ISM Manufacturing (APR)
Apr 27
Bank of Japan Rate Decision
May 2
ADP Employment Change (APR)
Apr 30
Labor Cash Earnings (MAR)