In the last few weeks we have seen the TRY pairs heavily reversing from all-time highs after a decade-long bull run; they have already reversed about 50% of their 2017-2018 uptrend, having dropped about 20,000 pips; in the following day chart from FXCM you can see EUR/TRY now leaning against the 200-day (simple) moving average:
Currently, as you can see in the screesnhot, this pair sells at FXCM with a positive overnight rollover of over £8 whereas buying would incur an overnight penalty of over £ -30 (both quotes refer to 10k positions, worth about £0.12/pip).
If a break of the 200-day MA were to occur, there would be unknown downward potential, potentially over 40,000 pips down to the 2007-2008 levels.
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PS: I sometimes hear that some people (including myself) are here to tell lies about themselves, are ‘cat-fish’ and pretend to be someone that they are not…
I have been very honest and fairly regularly posted my struggles with trading…
The fact that sometimes I like to ‘give advice’ to newbies is not because I portray myself as a ‘successful’ trader but because I know what works and what does not, and I am talking about common sense stuff, like do not start trading with $10 and expect to turn it to $1000000 into a few weeks… or, do not expect to make huge progress if you have a full time job, are a parent, etc. and do this in small cuts of time… You do not have to be Linda Raschke or Paul Tudor Jones to be able to answer these points well… Even an amateur musician knows what works and what does not when it comes to learning a musical instrument… Otherwise only millionaire traders should post anything ever and nobody else should say a word. . . Or only world-famous musicians should give private tuition and ordinary music tutors should be banned.
Let us be a bit less judgmental of people giving their free time on here.
Stop the haters affecting civil dialogue on here.
Thank you
Well,.after.a.few.days of uncertainty, EurTry is now attempting a break of the 200-day moving average:
The MSCI Turkey index was.quite flat today after some good buying volume yesterday, so the Turkish Lira may not have enough strength to make this Friday afternoon break of the 200-day moving average a lasting one:
The 200-day MA break is holding, two days after the event, with two bullish candles retreating below the 200-day MA:
We do not yet know the volume figures for the MSCI Turkey index as it does not open until 9.30am New York time (2.30pm London time) today.
However, the XU100 BIST (the Turkish Borsa index) is on the up today, although volume figures are not available:
A great rise in TRY today meant that pairs like EURTRY and USDTRY have made significant losses.
I have opened a few short-term sells but my end-November/early-December shorts
are still running and gathering carry, currently about £330 one of them entered positive territory today and is up about £100.
Turkey’s MSCI ETF index is up with decent volume and the BIST XU 100 is also running up.
TRY futures at CME Group are too scant to gather data but on 11th Dec. the March expiry contracts show a huge buy spike, which helped propelling the currency.
Happy trading.
One whole trading week since the break below the 200-day moving average, EurTry failed a bid above it today:
I did not take my short trades off the table because there is good buying volume and trending on the MSCI Turkey ETF and good technical uptrending on the XU100 Instanbul Borse index: Lira is cheap and still high-yielding, thus buying it remains attractive for investors.
I am just following in their footsteps and building my carry yield, currently around the £360 mark.
EurTry is now on the third day of retreating from the 200-day moving average, having now fallen just short of 2000 pips since then.
Currently, this pair trades at 68k/pip, meaning that for 1 pip to be worth £1 you need to open a 68k position; thus, a 34k position will be worth £0.5/pip and a 17k position £0.25/pip.
XU 100 Bist index has been on the rise since the beginning of January 2019:
Since the massive drop in August 2018, when the Lira fell to all-time lows,
this index has first peaked in October and in the last month has shot past that peak.
Looking at the volume peaks above the purple line in the MSCI Turkey ETF index below,
you can see that all but one (28th Jan.) have been buying volume (green) and, like the
XU 100, this index has been on a steady rise since the beginning of 2019:
The Lira has risen more than 20,000 pips against the Euro since the all-time bottom
of August 2018, but if it were allowed to continue in its appreciation it would have at
least another 20,000 pips to go.
Turkey’s central bank has held rates in January, which has allowed the Lira to continue
undisturbed; the next interest rate decision will be just before the local elections (31st March)
so it is expected to be a non-event:
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Closed one trade yesterday.
Account update:
EUR/TRY at big level (around 5.88) which is a multi-month support area:
closed one trade and left the other one open; should a break occur and
be sustained, I will look to re-enter, and if not, will seek short-term longs
(intraday) or re-enter short at next level, e.g. 200-day moving average
(EUR/TRY has been below the 200-day moving average now for two trading weeks).
I appreciate your effort to trade exotics. You need to become a real expert on TRY to successfully trade it. Just keep in mind that currently that currency is driven by politics not actual state of economy. Much reliance on FDI in basis
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After a week and a half of TRY ranging in a narrow space above the aforementioned long-term support level, and two small longs that I closed down for a total loss of about £100, I went long again today after EUR/TRY broke above the level where I had closed my last order, which was also a level that the pair found resistance in for the last few days.
The last orders were about 1/8 of £1 per pip; the current long is 1/2 of £1 per pip: the possible target is about 1000 pips (and is below the 200-day moving average). I will do this over several trades, as the negative swap/carry per day on EUR/TRY makes holding the same trade overnight over several days financially unattractive.
I will continue to monitor the Turkish Borsa index (XU100 BIST) and the ETF MSCI for Turkey to check for sign of Lira bulls regaining the upper hand.
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Xu100 has beenin decline and Lira pairs such as EurTry have spent two trading weeks gathering pace for pulling up off what became a trendline (white line with dotted ending) and indicating Lira sellers moving in.
I closed one small long at good profit and entered a larger one, aiming for the red broken line; the solid line resistance (formerly a blue line) has now been broken.
The broken white line below all of this seems to have held as a long-term support for this pair.
I continue holding one short to collect carry.
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The bulls are making significant progress: third day on the up…
MSCI Turkey index is starting to shape a small down-trending move,
which in my chart here I marked from the last two days in January 2019:
Strong selling volume on 20/02/2019 although not a large move intra-day,
however spot TRY did make a deliberate move and all seems set to continue.
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Hi PipMeHappy and Co
The last three weeks have been indeed bullish. I have short positions EURTRY and USDTRY.
With the TCMB press release on interest rates next week 6th March 2019, I have been thinking a lot lately about whether to hold on or close those short positions…
My 5 cents: Since October 2018 the TCMB has been sticking with the rate of 24%. Press releases were similar. The macroeconomics have not changed significantly during this period. Inflation ist still way above the TCMB aim of 5% - so one could expect that the TCMB will hold on to the rate of 24% which should be at least neutral for the TYR or maybe a bit bearish for the pairs USDTRY and EURTRY (compared to how the pairs reactes after the last TCMB decisions to keep the rate at 24%).
On the other side one could say that the macroeconomic risks for a slow down have a bit increased, which would maybe push the TCMB in the direction of a easier monetary policy. However the macroeconomic risk are not much worse now than they were in October 2018 in my opinion: US-China sill batteling trade wise, but there is progress. Brexit: risks for a no deal seem smaller no with a possible extension looming. Especially Eurozone and China are showing signs of weakness though.
Its a tough one … in my opinion the probability is a bit higher that the TCMB will keep rates compared to the probability that the TCMB will lower rates again. I do not see a rate hike.
What do you guys think?
Cheers
Pipersson
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Pipersson,
I agree. The TCMB’s March rate decision will come just over three weeks before regional elections, so they will be unlikely to rock the boat and announce rate hikes.
I am going short-term long while holding on to a longer-term short for carry… I am not sure if this would suit your game…
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Hi there
Your not worried about a rate cut then?
Yes, holding positions “long” - which means in my case weeks to month - is what I usually do. TRY pairs I am only trading short, since holding on to the pairs long does not make sende considering the carry.
I normally trade major pairs - here the carry does not matter much, so I am holding both short an long positions for longer times.
The shorts on EURTRY and USDTRY are “experiments” in my case. The carry is really appealing though. I like to keep this experiment up, so I will try to keep sharing my thoughts herewith you.
See ya
Pipersson
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