USD/TRY: an incredible pair

Ah yes, thanks for clarifying. You are right in that I misunderstood it exactly the way you described. :sweat_smile:

This is the worst part. But I’m such a small trader perhaps I can ride along? Idk.

Perhaps next year! I should set a date and just do it with no excuses!

Eventually, I’d like to get into options also. Have you ever looked into that?

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No, only when trading EUR/USD last year: I started using the CME’s Options Heatmap for EUR/USD fx as it showed client order flow strength for calls and puts around the EUR/USD price points, which I thought would help me see where support/resistance may be based on clusters of big orders waiting at certain price.levels. However it was a bit random in the end, so it did not really strike me as a reliable.tool to try predicting EUR/USD’s reaction at various price levels.

Were you thinking about currency/fx options?

I also wanted to ask: do you have money to trade or are you putting some aside for it, little by little?

More equity options really. What I’d like is to be a bit more well-versed in fx so I can appreciate/know more about macroeconomics or maybe even just global news you know? It keeps you in the loop of what’s going on in the world…because you have a trade on :rofl:

I’m putting aside money for it little by little, it’s just something I want to kind of keep as a mini hobby if that makes sense.

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Yes,it makes perfect sense…

We all find time for things that add value to our lives: trading can add value as something that opens our eyes to world economics, and/or as a purely money-making tool.

I went through the phase of using trading - having trades open - to motivate myself to study lots of areas of economics/finance previously unknown to me, but I then subsequently found myself realising that no amount of study of wider economics should become a substitute for bad profits, namely that we should not accept losses in the name of ‘personal enrichment’ or ‘appreciating economics’ and view trading for what it is, namely preserving capital and making money.

So I am now at the stage that after years (seven, exactly this month) since starting my forex journey I have used hundreds of hours on what was never initially going to be.more than, as you say, a mini-hobby: slowly I realised that this could not be justified in the long-term, because I started valuing my time with family and friends more than time spent pursuing a hobby that involved a lot of hours spent alone and losing real or virtual money overall.

Now I have reduced forex sim trading back down to where it belongs, a mini-hobby, just like you said: but it takes time and effort to not let it dominate many of your waking hours, especially at the start when you are high on enthusiasm and on the possibility of making some money out of money. Now I am much happier because I have found that balance between simplicity of approach to my trading and time spent on it, making it very low-maintenance and allowing me not to give to it more of my precious time.

What do you think about this, @ponponwei ?

The pair (EUR/TRY) is making excellent progress, moving away from the 200-day M.A.: it is now on the fourth straight day of downtrending, having travelled about 1300 pips south.

The last three days on the MSCI Turkey ETF have all been bullish (buying volume increasing each day while prices were rising):

It seems that there is a strong enough move forming to break out of a seventeen-day deadlock since the pair broke below the 200-day M.A. on 03/09.

@Pipersson Hello , are you still trading this?

Hello traders!

Quick update: since opening the last demo account to trade EurTry at the start of July I have done well, growing it by 14.5% in just under four months.

I took some larger profits when EurTry was moving faster then let a carry trade continue (so far it has collected about £450 in interest alone); I have taken intra-day long positions too, and with the recent large moves in EurUsd I added some short-term profits from that pair (it is the only other pair on my screen), because it is cheap to leverage it up for shorter targets.

I am now just keeping an almost hands-off attitude, given how well I have done. I would like this time round to make it to one year not only with an account that is intact but also in good profit, i.e. protect profits made in the early stages and just tie my hands if I have to!

HELLO TRADERS…

Six-month update: account up by 18.9% (balance) or 17.5% (equity, inclusive of current floating P/L).

20% of balance increase was made of interest/rollover.

Together with holding EurTry short I also traded short-term EurTry longs, and both longs and shorts on EurUsd - which has been quite the mover recently.

Very happy and now aiming to preserve these gains in the remaining six months, thus closing my first year in profit since I started learning about trading in September 2012.

Merry Christmas and a happy new year!!

PipMeHappy

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just my opinion… trading to Turkish Lira is really really gambling… thats all… i don’t think any indicator, any PA technique or any thing else can guess or define what the hell is going on in Turkish market and Turkish economy… in any time, the whole values, USDTRY, EURTRY or economic indicators can blown up…

Couldn’t that be said @tilden_katz of any currency?

Can anyone really say what EurUsd is going to do on a month by month basis or day to day?

How can the direction and momentum of this ten-year EurTry trend (2008-2018) seem unclear to anyone with eyes?

Hi @PipMeHappy

sure it can be said but not much as Turkish Lira…

why??

Goverment exist of one men, the president, so he’s deciding everything with zero knowledge of economy… Let’s say, tomorrow, national bank of Turkey will decide the rates… if the president says that “give lower rates because i need citizen’s sympathy even the most banks or investors needs high rates” than the National bank gives lower rates… Becaouse every one is afraid of him…

apart of that, whole Turkish economy is depends of building industry… They are always building large buildings, so many homes and always doing some big bridge or tunnel projecst which are actuaally done by foreign companies… so Turkey is not producing or selling any thing,… Goverment’s income source is only taxes and foreign investigtors whose coming to high rates…

as you follow, dollar was about 7.000 turkish liras once, when goverment arrested an American Priest… With that simple example, you can see how sensitive economy is… Now, nobody knows how Dolar is still about 5.500-6.00 Liras becaouse all economic values are bad… Even it’s forbidden, Economi President takes money of Central Bank and giving into the market by goverment oriented banks so they are keeping Turkish lira in 5.500-6.00 band but this is so obviosly not the real numbers…

ofcourse, you can not know where eurusd is going to, but you can guess… But for Turkish Lira, you can not… One morning, president can wake up with anger and he can deside, close all banks and takes the money for goverment in order to make some trade and earn money for Turkey…

it’s all up to him…

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Hi @PipMeHappy may be you can follow this channel in order to understand what’s going on in Turkey…

on youtube, search: real turkey channel

Atilla Yesilada, an economist is driving this channel…

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Six months, July 2019 to Jan. 2020, with some analytics to show how I have done:

Hello all!

As per.today, the account is up by 21.05%.

The net unrealized (floating) P/L is -1.1% of the account.

The use of CME futures volume for EUR/USD and of MSCi index.ETF volume for EUR/TRY continues to be a useful support in making decisions on spot fx trades on these two pairs.

@tilden_katz

Unfazed by lira's decline, Turkey persists with lowering interest rates

EurTry shooting up, backed by strong MSCI-Turkey selling volume, breaching 6.64.

I have gone long with £1.50/pip (£119k position). Target: 6.69.

PS: keeping short position for carry (current accrued interest is £1,167).

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Following along! I mean Watching!

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Account now up by 38.85%…

Do you worry about geopolitical issues when trading this pair? Big news over the last week with Turkey and Syrian conflict. I imagine that could affect fear and economy. Your thoughts?

@dudebro Finished closing all my short exposure to EurTry today as I was interested in buying.Liras to.fuel a carry trade. This worked as EurTry downtrended from Sep.2018 to Christmas but 2019 was a mixed bag and more.recently we have seen a resumption of the previous ten-year uptrend in EurTry. I.had accrued about 1100 Pounds in carry interest but the P/L from pip movement was negative by quite a lot.

I am not.interested in buying EurTry as it is very expensive: it only made sense.to.me as a.short trade given the high interest paid by.buying Liras.

I have been using EurUsd more and more.as it.has had some decent moves and.it is much cheaper.

So in answer to your question: the Turkish central bank has made its effective rate negative (,once.you.account for.inflation) so that investors in Lira have been selling.off,.seeking returns in other emerging economies.

The technical setup is that EurTry has broken back up above a significant, multi-month resistance/roof and looks untroubled in regaining its ascent to the all-time highs of August 2018… I may be buying EurTry if EurUsd goes flat but at the moment I feel no.need to.

What about you?