USDCAD primed for a major long deal?

After several attempts, Usdcad has finally hit our all time demand zone and on Friday, went through the important psychological price of 1.0050 like a knife going through a piece of butter. Isn’t catching a falling knife the greatest mistake, some people might say? It could well be but the theory of demand and supply offers a good tonic. It says that when price gets too cheap, demand increases and conversely when price gets too dear, supply increases.
Another enduring tonic would be Newton’s First and Third Laws of Motion. Law of Motion 1: Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it. Law of Motion 3: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

I will see if these principles still work on current USDCAD.

Entry 1.0050
initial Stop loss 1.0019(Seems too tight as we have a bigger demand zone that could be well challenged)
I will be long again if initial stop gets hit on price action moves. My final stop on any more move lower would be 0.9947

Target: medium to longer term ranging from 1.0250 to 1.0650

Probability: 95%

Analysis: Price Action/technical
Signals of note: wolfe Wave theory on H4, 61.8% fibonacci retracement on daily chart, oversold stochastic on lower time frames.

Good luck if you are going long with me



I do not understand how you calculated 95%. Can you explain?

Holy **** you have a 35 pip spread?!?!

And no I think it can go lower, check out the older price.

One stop at .9900~
Next at 9800~
one around 9700~
A decent one at 9500~
and a really sweet one at 9300.

So what I’m saying is, its at a very old key level but not quite it still looks down 9988? maybe for a small rebound to get in the shorts?
Then 9881 etc.

Granted its a very slow moving pair and as I hear from ICT constantly, Sell the Rallies, Buy the dips.

“A currency pair at rest tends to stay at rest and a trending currency pair tends to stay in trend unless acted upon by an equal and opposite reaction or an unbalanced force.”

I’m pretty sure 35 points equates to 3.5 pips. That fifth digit is misleading.

That’s still a fairly high spread for the U/C.

I’m absolutely comfortable with that spread. And yes, it is 3.5pips.
Thanks

We shall see if Usdcad would be acted upon by an equal and opposite reaction or an unbalanced force. Let’s see if usdcad stays in current downtrend forever and let’s see if law of demand still holds sway. Good luck whatever you decide to do with this pair

No. that is misleading. It means 3.5pip spread. 10 points here represent 1 pip

Well you ICT could not have said it better. Sell the Rallies and Buy the dips. Those actions don’t occur in a vaccum. You buy when supply increases to push price down. You buy the dips in prices. The challenge is in determining what and where the dip is. On current usdcad, the demand zone spans between 0.9950 and 1.0050
And no, 0.9800 is not in focus based on current action nor anything lower. Below 0.9940, this analysis would be completely invalid and I will gladly take responsibility for my loss. And I see you tend to continue pricing in possible QE3. I’m afraid it might have already been priced in by the bigger dogs. So, if you are shorting this pair or wanna short, be careful too.

There is indeed no objective model to calculate this. This percentage is purely subjective and won’t have any impact on the viability of said long idea. It is my personal way of saying how much positive I am on the idea expressed.
Good luck