USDJPY Breaking Down; Next Big Bear Leg Underway?

[B]• Euro Breaking Out
• Japanese Yen Breakout
• British Pound Longer Term Bull Channel
• Swiss Franc Completing Larger Move
• Canadian Dollar Working Towards .9800
• Australian Dollar Top at .8972?
• New Zealand Dollar More Complex Correction?
[/B]


Commentary: At this point, there are a number of patterns that may be playing out. A large correction may be playing from the 1.4281 high, perhaps a flat or a triangle. Under this scenario, price is likely to top soon and head lower - below 1.4015 in the case of the flat. However, the 3 wave correction from 1.4241-1.4144 suggests that upside potential remains. In summary, the count is not too clear at this point.

Strategy: Flat


Commentary: We were wrong yesterday in claiming that the correction higher had further to go. That obviously was not the case as the USDJPY has broken significantly lower. Wave 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 117.93 is underway. A short term bearish objective is at the 161.8% extension of 117.93-116.17/117.18 at 114.33. Longer term, we are very bearish and expect a drop below 111.59 in the next few weeks.

Strategy: Flat


Commentary: Bigger picture, the count is not too clear but Cable is testing the upper end of its range near 2.0494. A break through this level may give way to a big breakout. We are showing the daily chart today with the trend channel that dates to May 2006. A breakout could lead to a push much higher. However, be careful because the pair may be in a larger correction from 2.0654 (similar to the EURUSD).

Strategy: Flat


Commentary: We were wrong to turn bullish as it looke like the USDCHF is headed below 1.1623 to complete the larger decline (which is a terminal thrust from a triangle). A drop below 1.1623 would possibly complete 5 waves down from 1.2468 and give way to a reversal and much larger rally.
Strategy: Flat


Commentary: Although the USDCAD did drop below .9743, the .9706 low remains in place. It is possible that a larger correction is underway from .9706 as the decline from .9820 does not look like an impulse. Under this scenario, the rally should accelerate. The next level of chart resistance is .9894.
Strategy: Bullish, against .9706, target TBD


Commentary: Yesterday, we wrote that “the decline does look like a 5 and it also appears that an expanded flat is unfolding now. Potential resistance is at the 50% and 61.8% of .9077-.8822 at .8950 and .8980. Look for a top and reversal near there. The Aussie reversed at .8972 yesterday but a larger more complex correction appears to be underway. Still, a cautious bearish bias is warranted against .8972.

Strategy: Bearish, against .8972, target below .8822


Commentary: Kiwi is in the exact same position as the AUSUSD. A wave 2 may be complete at .7555 and a cautious bearish bias is warranted against that level. However, a more complex correction could also be unfolding which has the potential to reach the 61.8% of .7785-.7394 at .7635.

Strategy: Flat