UsdJpy: dollar tries to consolidate at 92.42

Yen strength right now is just like a double edge blade for Japan, hopefully the japan gov will take a concrete action. :). i allready took a long position for this USD/JPY. hopefully more gain soon.

my last position is more than 100 pips profit for my long position. hope for more pips commin up.

during the morning, as Japan the industry tertiary index was better than expected, the yen climbed 114 pips against the euro, while the RSI is in the oversold

As long as the USD is a Carry Trade currency and the YEN isn’t “messed” with by the BoJ you will see the YEN rise.

i agree with you cas, even now an important news release doesnt have strong effect on USDJPY.

The pair rebounded and broke 91.00. The good quarterly results from some US corporations are fueling the greenback… But yeap, I agree not good rallies from my dear currency pair

still moving up, this is still rebound movement, event if the US unemployment claims report is more then the forecasted the dollar keep gaining strenght. USD still a carry trade currencies. any other perception about USDJPY?

Yeah, USD JPY hit a new annual high at 91.70. I think we´ll have to wait and see if this is in fact a bottom in the US dollar before making any conclusions but it is fair to say that the typical USD JPY relationship has changed as the USD is just as much a carry currency these days as the JPY.

How can that be…? :slight_smile:

How can both currencies in a [B]major [/B]pair be used for Carry Trades…? :slight_smile:

[B][U]Dollar to Hit 50 Yen[/U], Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says (Update1)[/B]

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) – [U]The dollar may drop to 50 yen next year[/U] and eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.’s chief strategist said, citing trading patterns and a likely double dip in the U.S. economy.

“The U.S. economy will deteriorate into 2011 as the effects of excess consumption and the financial bubble linger,” said Daisuke Uno at Sumitomo Mitsui, a unit of Japan’s third- biggest bank. “The dollar’s fall won’t stop until there’s a change to the global currency system.”

The dollar last week dropped to the lowest in almost a year against the yen as record U.S. government borrowings and interest rates near zero sapped demand for the U.S. currency. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, has fallen 15 percent from its peak this year to as low as 75.211 today, the lowest since August 2008.

The gauge is about five points away from its record low in March 2008, and the dollar is 2.5 percent away from a 14-year low against the yen.

“We can no longer stop the big wave of dollar weakness,” said Uno, who correctly predicted the dollar would fall under 100 yen and the Dow Jones Industrial Average would sink below 7,000 after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last year. If the U.S. currency breaks through record levels, “there will be no downside limit, and even coordinated intervention won’t work,” he said.

China, India, Brazil and Russia this year called for a replacement to the dollar as the main reserve currency. Hossein Ghazavi, Iran’s deputy central bank chief, said on Sept. 13 the euro has overtaken the dollar as the main currency of Iran’s foreign reserves.

Elliott Wave

The greenback is heading for the trough of a super-cycle that started in August 1971, Uno said, referring to the Elliot Wave theory, which holds that market swings follow a predictable five-stage pattern of three steps forward, two steps back.

[U][I][B]The dollar is now at wave five of the 40-year cycle, Uno said. It dropped to 92 yen during wave one that ended in March 1973. The dollar will target 50 yen during the current wave, based on multiplying 92 with 0.764, a number in the Fibonacci sequence, and subtracting from the 123.17 yen level seen in the second quarter of 2007, according to Uno.[/B][/I][/U]

The Elliot Wave was developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. Wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who discerned them from proportions found in nature.

Uno said after the dollar loses its reserve currency status, the U.S., Europe and Asia will form separate economic blocs. The International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights may be used as a temporary measure, and global currency trading will shrink in the long run, he said.

The pair is rebounding after getting closer to the 94.70 yens per dollar support. For now, we’re not seeing the currency appreciating as it should after the China’s National Bank said it’s diversifying its dollar reserves into euros and yens. However, the MACD and Stochastic could give selling signals in the next hour. The RSI shows the pair is in a neutral zone, while the bands of Bollinger show a 70 pips volatility in the hour.

today USDJPY is flat, i think it still waiting for some real action from US gov before it make a real trend shape. US CB Consumer Confidence news will be released at 14:00 GMT. not much effect i think. but let just take attention to any gov movement. :slight_smile:

It seems the price has turned on the dotted line. The price could try to go the top of the downwards channel. If it continues seeking new lows, the will first break 90 and then try to get to the year low at 87.107 yens per dollar.

After the US GDP data were published, the pair rebounded 150 pips, trading at 91.33 yens per dollar, right now. Pay attention to the pair, as it’s showing a great indecision right now, after being near the resistance at 91.50.

With the sharp sell-off in USDJPY after CIT bankruptcy news, USDJPY broke below the head-and-shoulders neckline and key support at 90.10

The USD has been slowly falling in the Asian session as risk appetite increases and equities rally. USDJPY climbed to 90.90 from 90.20.
Didn’t expect it :frowning: who did???

the japan company start to feel the effect of the strength of yen it self. form this wave i get 70 pip profit :slight_smile: and still have some long transaction open.

Below there 89.30 provides support in the form of a new trend channel that has formed over the last month so the risk reward at that level favours the long side. A break there and we are looking at 88.60 for major support

Finance Minister Noda said it’s too early to start unwinding fiscal stimulus measures aimed at turning around the economy. It’s not in a stage that the exit strategy can be implemented.

I expect that JPY will remain as the safe haven with the most demand, even if the current trend is caused by the dollar’s weakness, after the G20 summit in Scotland.

The JPY seems to be holding to the psychological 90 point. Core Machinery Orders late Tuesday night EST should provide some impetus in moving traders one way or the other. I’m watching this closely as it could lead to some volatility over the next few days.