[B]• Euro Decline Finally Underway?
• Japanese Yen Preparing to Break a Range
• British Pound Testing 1.9600
• Swiss Franc to 1.1375
• Canadian Dollar Testing Recent Low (USDCAD highs)
• Australian Dollar Failing at Resistance
• New Zealand Dollar Very Bearish Below .7791[/B]
SEE A DECRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR THE INDICATORS IN THE TABLE
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Commentary: There is no change to the call for a decline to come under 1.4569. In fact, price action from yesterday reinforces our near term bearish bias. Price seems to have put in a ceiling just below 1.4750. “The rally to 1.4823 is now viewed as wave b of an expanded flat within larger wave 2 of the 5 wave rally that began from 1.4310. Minimum expectations are for the decline to come under 1.4569 before the next bull leg begins. Resistance should be strong near 1.4750.”
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.4823, target TBD
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Commentary: The argument is strong that the decline from 114.65 is in 5 waves, and we must respect the bearish potential, which is great. The decline fom 114.65 could be the beginning of wave 3 of larger 3 within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13. A break below 107.20 warrants a breakout strategy. Subjectively speaking, we favor a rally to the 111.50 area (about the 50% retrace of 114.65-108.22) in order to complete wave 2 before the next bear leg begins. Near term, aggressive traders may adopt a bullish bias above 108.58 but look to flip near 111.50.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: We have continued to mention that “the decline from 2.0101 does not look complete. If the decline from 2.0101 is a 5th wave, then the fall should divide into 5 waves itself.” Still, the decline from 2.0101 is not in 5 waves. Also, the short term EURUSD bearish bias favors additional GBPUSD losses. Measured objectives are at 1.9525 (161.8% extension) and 1.9450 (wave v = wave i).
Strategy: Bearish, against 2.0101, target 1.9530
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Commentary: We maintain that the USDCHF will continue to rally in wave 2 (within the 5 wave bear cycle from 1.1594). Expect this rally to test the 1.1375 area (former 4th wave is at 1.1371 and 61.8% of 1.1594-1.1018 is at 1.1374). This fits with a EURUSD decline to the 1.4500 area before the next leg of dollar bearishness gets underway.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.1018, target 1.1370
Commentary: Either wave B within the A-B-C correction from 1.0248 (or wave 2 within a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse) is complete or close to complete at 1.0080. Even if price does exceed 1.0080, the next move of consequence is lower towards .9500. The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 1.0248.
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.0248, target .9500
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Commentary: We have favored recently that wave 3 within a 5 wave bull cycle from .8549 is underway but given the strong signs that the dollar will strengthen across the board for at least the next few days, we are abandoning the bullish bias (for now). Instead of wave 3 higher being underway, the recent top at .8859 could be a b wave top within a larger wave 2 correction. This means that wave c will bring the Aussie below .8682 (if only slightly) before the real bull leg begins.
Strategy: Exit bullish position
Commentary: We maintain that NZDUSD is about to drop below .7435 to complete a large C wave. The decline from .7937 to .7507 is a 5 wave decline and is either wave 1 down in a 5 wave bear cycle or wave A down in a 3 wave bear cycle (either way…a drop below .7507 is expected). The rally to .7791 is best counted as a 3 wave advance and the 61.8% retrace of .7937-.7507 has held twice.
Strategy: Bearish, from .7791, target below .7435
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ?: Slope of the 200 day SMA
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