No answer?
Why don’t we agree in that case that you continue to stay off my threads or respond to anything else that I post, and I will do the same. I have had a quick look at your posting history and I see that you are incorrigible with this stuff.
Wow that was very nice thank you. We will have to see if this plays out well or not i’ll keep you posted.
Sigma 3 = 3 Standard Deviations from the SMA. I am using Bollinger Bands for that so if the trend curve changes direction (SMA[1] - SMA[2] the change in the SMA crosses zero) and then the price breaks out of the Bollinger band @ 3 standard deviations soon after.
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I’ll try to do that, when I remember.
I want to add something else, though.
I apologise to you for the earlier, now-removed post I made. Having discussed it now in some detail both with Pipstradamus (who was very helpful) and Lukas (likewise) I now realise that my post came across as very critical and rude, and I’m sorry about that, Ropunzel.
Believe it or not, that honestly wasn’t my intention in writing it.
I think my intention when I originally posted it was a combination of “wanting to try to help to re-orientate your thinking” (perhaps not my business at all to try to do that!) and exasperation at my own inability to explain to you why I think you’re barking up the wrong tree with this.
No offence was intended. I accept from your reaction that some was taken, and that was my fault, not yours.
It frustrates me, after my 30 years in the markets in various different capacities, to see someone so highly intelligent and highly educated as you with general perspectives around trading (as far as I understand yours, from what you’ve posted here) which in my unsolicited and doubtless most unwelcome opinion aren’t particularly helpful ones.
Nevertheless, I shouldn’t have interfered, maybe shouldn’t have tried to say so at all, and certainly shouldn’t have done so in a way that (I now see) came across so rudely.
Good wishes and good luck to you, Ropunzel, and I’ll avoid your threads (as I long as I remember to, which I think I probably can), if you want.
Sorry!
Charles
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Shorted EurTry as at record highs and showing signs of turning, like UsdTry… Daily swap for selling is £3.9 for a £10k position with Fxcm, so if you invested, say, £100k (roughly £2/pip), it would be £39 daily swap plus x3 on a Wednesday night, so £39x3(Mon, Tue, Thu night) + £39x3(Wed night)= £39x6= £234/week.
If you held a £100k short trade for four trading weeks (roughly one month) it would then yield £234x4= £936.
Not bad…
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Looks interesting. The Sto 15,8,8 on D1 suggests now might be a good time to sell. I noticed that the spreads are very high - currently 102.7 pips with IC Markets although that might be because it is the weekend.
100k sounds very high, although I must say I am not sure exactly what you mean. Do you mean to have an SL that contains a 100k risk? What would be the balance of your account in that case. So far I have got a daily swap of £12.58 short with an SL of 1155 pips that contains just 1k risk.
So if you were working with a 10k prospective loss in an SL of 2310 pips that would yield roughly 440.3 a week.
I think that there are opportunities here, but I haven’t settled on a way to trade it yet: overnight scalp on Wednesday or trading a bearish trend or bearish correction over a few days. I think the latter has more risk. 10k in a 100k account is a hefty chunk of risk if the market moves against you, even if the positive swap provides additional edge in the trade.
Not sure.
Hello Ropunzel,
I just made a quick decision on EurTry and entered on a Friday afternoon, so my stop and target are yet to be set…I will set those on Monday.
Spreads are high at the weekend…as I said, on UsdZar for an Fxcm weekend spread you will see it as high as 600 sometimes. That is life with exotics!
In terms of balance I am demoing a 50k account… Swap varies for EurTry: Fxcm give 3.9 for a 10k position but other brokers offer different swaps.
Here are all of Fxcm’s:
https://www.forex.com/en-us/why-us/why-choose-us/value-and-reliability/rollover-rates.html#
I hope that you do find a way to trade the swap…
I am still new at this.
Happy Trading
Actually I think it is clear. I am just procrastinating. A forward test will pretty much sum everything up quickly, but I haven’t written the EA yet.
In fact I will do it right now.
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go for it!!
Which pair will you use the EA on?
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Just written it. Will use it on USDTRY. I will do it every day of the week just to test the win rates. It will record the spread variation from open to close to find the best answer for what the SL should be, starting with an initial value of 120 pips. I will be testing for an overnight scalp, with a view to get a higher win rate.
Although I would intend to only trade the triple Swap days of Wednesday, testing for everyday will give me more data more quickly.
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Super!!
Fantastic…
ATR and spread info combined will give you the best stop-positioning value…
That’s true, I will add that now.
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Euro FX futures on CME monthly chart (February 2018 expiration ) show three buying months in succession (Dec., Jan., Feb.) but retreating from 1.25 and with gradually falling volume, making selling at this level attractive:
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Looks good. I don’t know much about trading Futures and their correlation with the likely move in the underlying currency. I think there are a few Futures traders on here that could weigh in on that.
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Hey I am just looking at the info for FXCM, they don’t appear to be an ECN broker, why did you decide to use them.
How do you mean? They are a No Dealing Desk, if that helps. Anyway, been with them
since 2012, never had any problems.
http://www.theoptionsguide.com/covered-put-writing.aspx
Thinking of doing this trade when the market opens. It is a variation of a Covered Put. the vertical line to the right is the expiry of the option, the green line is the option strike price, the red horizontal line is the SL for the forex trade.
I am guessing the option delta will be about 50% close to expiry -that means that for every £1 gain in the underlying currency position where will be a £0.5 gain in the option price, so that means I can sell twice as many option lots compared to my trade in the underlying so that there is parity between how much I lose on the option versus how much I am making from the currency trade.
Using the setup like this, writing this option into the market will give me roughly £3,750 upfront, which is about half my risk on the currency trade if market goes up and stops be out at the SL. In that case I would lose -£7,500 (5% account balance) + £3,750. The only risk there is that after having closed my out on the currency trade, the market will then go on to move down and below 105 and make the option that I wrote in the money so I am losing on that also, to counter that the EA opens a limit order at 105 (strike price for option) for exactly the same lot size if my currency positions closes out at the SL before the expiry of the option.
The only way I can lose in that case is if the currency trade loses then the market moved down to make the option in the money at which time I have got in on another currency trade to counter that risk, but then the market moves up again after the second currency short has opened to lose more money on that still.
A lot of acrobatics I think probably not. But would have to find a way to work out the probability values for that event.
I think the most likely outcomes will be
- get the trade wrong so end up losing £3,750 (2.5% of account balance)
2)get the trade right in which case my PnL is capped at £17,700 on the trade + £3,750 from the option.
R:R 4000:20000 1:5 Rounded up.
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Payout here is equal to the risk within my SL so if the trade loses I lose nothing. But my upside is capped at £2,500 (PnL) + £7,500 (Premium paid to me) but the real risk is that I lose the currency trade then the market comes down to put the option in the money so I have to get in on another currency short trade to hedge the downside risk - then the market moves up again so my second currency trade loses money again.
I think that is unlikely, but I haven’t figured out how to quantify the odds yet.
Trend trading H1 on USDJPY seems pretty reliable at the moment. The Indicator on this chart (Green) looks at the change in the moving average from one period to another (it is smoothed 4 bars) so the idea is that when the line crosses zero the direction of the trend is changing as there is a turning point of the SMA (SMA 50 in this case).
If you look at the vertical line for the last 3 crosses, there does appear to be predictable trend trading opportunities with this pair.