Strap yourselves in because your USD/JPY stops aren’t going to help you make money today!
So. Can the BoJ Provide Anything but Disappointment for USD/JPY?
[B]BoJ Game Plan Recap[/B]
Leading into Friday’s Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, we questioned whether anything they could do wouldn’t disappoint markets. In short, the answer was always going to be, and subsequently was, no.
Check out our BoJ Game Plan Recap and be sure to follow the blog for more real time trading opportunities in the future.
[B]RBA: To Cut, or Not to Cut, That is the Question[/B]
There are no prizes for being right or wrong on a central bank call and just because you side with consensus and get it right, doesn’t mean the market will give your trade the strong directional move you’re looking for.
[B]Trading Misplaced Market Expectations: AUD/USD and USD/JPY[/B]
There you go. The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates to a record low level of 1.5%.
With the Aussie well off its highs heading into the release in a weak USD environment, the surveyed economists and the pre-release market ‘got it right’.
But other than an immediate post decision headline spike down, the Aussie rallied basically vertical for the day’s three trading sessions. Yes, the currency RALLIED on a rate cut.
Read more about trading misplaced market expectations.
[B]The Bank of England Delivers and Cable Drops[/B]
The Bank of England did as expected (although maybe one month later) and cut its official interest rate 25bps from 0.50% to 0.25%. The lowest level in it’s entire 322 year history.
GBP Official Bank Rate: 0.25% v 0.25% expected and 0.50% previous.
GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes: 0-9-0 v 0-9-0 expected and 0-1-8 previous.
Read the full Bank of England Analysis inside the Vantage FX Daily Market Update.
[B]NFP Pounds Expectations: USD Up, Gold Down[/B]
[B]USD Non-Farm Employment Change:[/B] 255K v 180K expected and 292K (revised up from 287K) previous.
[B]USD Unemployment Rate:[/B] 4.9% v 4.8% expected and 4.9% previous.
[B]USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m:[/B] 0.3% v 0.2% expected and 0.1% previous.
What a blowout! And for the second consecutive month too.
See the charts on today’s Vantage FX Daily Market Update.
[B]The Highly Technical NZD/USD[/B]
“With the RBNZ expected to cut on Thursday morning, direction will come from any forward guidance in the accompanying rate statement. Expectation seems to be that Wheeler will take a neutral stance heading into the decision and combined with the continual hunt for yield in a low interest rate environment, the pair has continued to rally whether the USD is or not.”
See how technical NZD/USD is moving.
[B]Pips in the Kiwi as RBNZ Cuts Rates[/B]
Following price bouncing out out of the higher time frame support zone, we were watching the intra-day levels for an entry to get long. With price never getting below the previous swing low, there were ample opportunities to take a long entry with a reasonably tight stop.
And following the RBNZ rally on a 0.25% rate cut (the new normal it would seem), NZD/USD longs got an extra potential +170 pips on the spike.
AUD/USD: The Hairy Bull
[B]A hairy bull.[/B]
I’m not sure how to describe a bullish Aussie Dollar that has been rejected off the next level of higher time frame resistance, so lets just go with that!
Trade AUD/USD with Australian Forex Broker, Vantage FX.
Six Consecutive Red Daily Candles for USD/CAD
Six consecutive red daily candles for USD/CAD and a spike up in Oil has caught the attention of Forex and Commodity traders alike.
Check out the full USD/CAD analysis in today’s Vantage FX Daily Market Update.
[B]Dudley Duds Stocks[/B]
The US S&P 500 index pulled back from yet further record highs after New York Fed president William Dudley dropped the latest piece of central bank rhetoric via the Fox Business Network.
Will this latest piece of Fed rhetoric really have an effect?
[B]A Split Fed Confusing USD Bulls[/B]
Just yesterday we had Dudley trying to commit to a 2016 rate hike… Then almost immediately Bullard goes the opposite direction with the FOMC Minutes!
That’s right. As expected, yesterday’s headlines of the Fed threatening to derail the US stock market rally were nothing but noise.
[B]Does Opportunity Lie with Playing USD from the Long Side?[/B]
The week kicks off with a distinct lack of market moving economic data from any of the major economic centres and attention therefore focuses solely on Fed Chair Janet Yellen to end the week.
With rhetoric changing, technicals hitting key zones and Janet Yellen hitting the microphone on Friday, see why you might play USD from the long side.
[B]AUD/JPY and the Broader Aussie Dollar[/B]
As you can see on the AUD/JPY daily, it is a nice, higher time frame trending pair that respects major support/resistance levels. As a technical trader, there’s not much more you can ask for in a currency pair you’re looking to trade.
Check out more AUD analysis on the Vantage FX Daily Market Update