[B]The Data Front:[/B]
I remember that we were panicking about something to start the week? Something about a Black Monday? Oh well never mind, looks like we’re all good now with US equity markets bouncing back to actually head into Friday UP on the week! Yes that’s right, overnight the S&P 500 Index surged to its biggest 2 day rally since 2009. What a week!
Read the full Asian Session Morning on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]Jackson Hole Recap:[/B]
The consensus out of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium seems to be that central banks need to take a step back and view last week’s market turmoil from the bigger picture. Yes markets experienced a correction (that could be construed as healthy by many), but with employment and economic growth numbers still delivering, the Fed is still in a position to forge on with plans to hike rates.
Read the full Asian Session Morning on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
Trend lines are a subjective tool. Depending on how you’ve drawn your trend line, price could have either broken the level in question or given a signal that support has actually held. Do you use the most recent, subsequent lows? Do you skip a single, unnatural wick? There are almost endless variations across every single chart.
Read the full Technical Analysis Post on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]RBA Preview:[/B]
Here we go with another big RBA Tuesday on the cards today!
Not only do we get an RBA rate decision, but also a deluge of AUD sensitive data including Aussie Building Approvals and multiple Chinese Manufacturing PMI’s.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold through this meeting and into the near future, with US and Chinese market turmoil not seen as enough to tilt their hand from the current domestic data focus.
Read the full Asian Session Morning on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]RBA on Hold:[/B]
As economists and traders had widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.00%. This was the fourth consecutive meeting that Stevens has chosen to sit on his hands rather than be one of the first to act following a month of uncertainty around China and global equities markets.
Read the full Asian Session Morning on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
Inside Monday’s Daily Market Update, we featured EUR/GBP as our Chart of the Day. As we’ve progressed further into the week, price action has thrown a spanner in the works which we’ll go through below.
Read the full Technical Analysis Post on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]Notorious:[/B]
In the lead up to tomorrow’s all important NFP number, last night saw the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change come in below expectation at 190K v the 204K expected. The July revision was also to the downside from 185k to now 177k.
CEO of ADP, Carlos Rodriguez:
“The job growth numbers for August improved slightly from July.”
“The employment gains for the month are in line with the year to date average.”
Read the full Technical Analysis Post on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]Super Mario Draghi:[/B]
With China still on holidays in observance of Victory over Japan Day, we’re expecting a quiet Asian session in the lead up to Non-Farm Payrolls later tonight. Yesterday it was interesting to see markets such as the Australian SPI200 print a long red daily candle without having a Chinese lead to blame!
Read the full Technical Analysis Post on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]NFP Complicates:[/B]
Friday’s August US jobs report didn’t help clear the murky trading waters heading into the Fed’s September meeting, with a slight miss potentially complicating the decision.
“USD Non-Farm Employment Change (173K v 215K expected, with the previous month’s number being revised from 215K to 245K)”
It is interesting to note that the August NFP print historically misses expectations but is then often revised higher in the coming months.
Read the full Technical Analysis Post on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]Chinese Foreign Exchange Concerns:[/B]
With both the US and Canada enjoying their Labor Day long weekend, the Forex majors experienced a peaceful, sideways drift to begin the week. With North America out of action, Asia stepped up to the crease with China once again the focal point.
Read the full Technical Analysis Post on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
With ALL surveyed economists expecting the official cash rate out of New Zealand to be cut at Thursday’s meeting, we take a look at where price currently sits, compare it to what happened last time a rate cut was expected and then go through some trading scenarios.
Read the full Technical Analysis Post on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]Central Banks Galore:[/B]
A busy day/night for central bank meetings with the Bank of Canada tonight, into the Reserve Bank of New Zealand tomorrow morning. Throw in some Australian RBA board members speaking and the general endless commentary around the Federal Reserve and there is plenty to keep up with!
Read the full Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]Looking Back:[/B]
Asian markets woke up to news that as expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut its official cash rate by 0.25% to 2.75%.
With the cut widely expected and therefore largely priced into forex markets, NZD/USD had actually rallied all week into the decision. It was however the wording in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement that did all the damage once the announcement was made official, with the Kiwi losing almost all of the week’s gains!
Read the full Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]Cable’s Reaction to the BoE:[/B]
Overnight the Bank of England voted 1-0-8 (increase-decrease-hold) as expected and kept interest rates on hold at 0.5%.
Read Cable’s Reaction to the BoE on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]When September Comes:[/B]
The epic Janet Yellen cartoon from Bidness Etc welcomes you to September FOMC week! Yes, it’s finally here. Recent market turmoil has meant that markets are now only pricing in a 28% chance that the Fed raises rates on Thursday, but are up at 59% for the Fed to move in December.
Read Monday’s FOMC Week Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]Do the AUD Turnbull Bounce:[/B]
So just like that, Australia has new Prime Minister! Welcome ex Goldman Sachs executive director, Malcolm Turnbull.
Whether you agree that it is right for backroom politics to decide to oust a Prime Minister that has been voted in by the Australian people, Forex markets have reacted well to the coup that ousted Tony Abbott, with the Aussie Dollar rising to new weekly highs.
Read about the Australian leadership change’s effect on AUD/USD in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre here.
[B]A Face you can Trust:[/B]
As the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006, I cant help but laugh at the multitude of faces that Fed Chair Janet Yellen gives the media. Looking back at Big Ben Bernanke, he never gave us anything close to the now famous look! It’s the little things in life.
Well things finally come to a head tomorrow evening, as the FOMC sit down for their highly anticipated September meeting to decide on the path of monetary policy. There really hasn’t been this much conversation and polarised opinions surrounding a FOMC meeting for a very long time.
How is the US Dollar reacting heading into FOMC? Read about it in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]The Fed’s Inflation Complication:[/B]
What has been interesting as we head into the decision has been every single one of this week’s data releases from the US have missed expectation, just adding fuel to the ready made wait and see excuse that the Fed has at its disposal. Last night’s inflation figures saw CPI m/m come in at -0.1% v the 0.0% expected and have been blamed on falling energy costs.
With the Fed constantly repeating that weak inflation is a huge factor in why they are in no rush to hike, this number again pushes the economy further away from the 2% target and muddies the water just that little bit more.
Do you see inflation changing the Fed’s thought process? Read about it in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
FOMC Thursday has arrived. The day markets get a decision out of the most anticipated, divided and unknown Fed meeting in years!
Today the US Federal Reserve will make their call on whether to provide liftoff on interest rates, as well as fielding any questions from the press on changes to monetary policy and economic projections. With the futures market forecasting a less than 20% chance of a hike, there is immense trading opportunity in the case of a surprise from the Fed who is obviously still very undecided.
Read the FOMC Scenarios and what it means for the USD on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Fed Goes Cold, on Hold:[/B]
In a widely expected move, the US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged overnight, forgoing the opportunity to make its first increase in more than 9 years.
Instead the Fed decided to take a wait and see approach, focusing on the major domestic issue of low inflation and of course the global economic uncertainty that has sent shockwaves through world markets over the recent past to justify its decision.
The Fed kept interest rates on hold. Read about it in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.