[B]Oil Seeps Lower; CAD Spurts Higher:[/B]
Oil prices seeped to their lowest level in over 6 years, breaking swing lows as oversupply was confirmed as not being abated any time soon. OPEC meetings ended with no resolution on production cuts and lacked any reference to output ceilings which was the big kicker in sending Oil to new lows.
As Oil Seeps Lower and CAD Spurts Higher, read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Unconventional Policies and the CAD:[/B]
While Speaking at the Empire Club of Canada in Toronto, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz delivered the alternate idea that BOC policymakers still have the fire-power to spur growth even with interest rates currently at near zero levels.
Are you trading the BOC’s Unconventional Policies and the CAD? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Central Banks in Abundance:[/B]
“NZD Official Cash Rate (Cut from 2.75% to 2.50% as expected)”
So with the Kiwi rallying, we again see the phenomenon we seem to now be calling a ‘hawkish rate cut’. With the RBNZ ‘expecting to reach inflation goals at current rate settings’, the market has interpreted Wheeler as not looking to lower rates again any time soon and duly obliged with a rally.
With releases via Central Banks in Abundance, read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Australian Employment Data Wrong? What Matters to Traders:[/B]
Yesterday’s Employment figures out of Australia were what can only be described as marvellous! …if taken on face value that is. As Peter Martin of the SMH hilariously pointed out, our stubborn Minister for Employment had no problems doing.
“The minister was asked whether she had concerns about the reliability of the figures. She said she did not.”
See how to Trade the Australian Employment Data in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]FOMC and Trader Expectations:[/B]
And here we are, FINALLY the Monday before the December FOMC meeting. The week before Christmas: the traders version. The biggest, most anticipated meeting (really this time) since… well the last time the Fed raised back in June 2006. As widely expected, we are likely to see a 0.25% hike in the short term interest rate, lifting rates off the current near zero levels.
Think about Trader Expectations into FOMC. Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]FOMC Lead Up: The Sounds of Silence:[/B]
Can you hear that? That is the sound of silence, with quiet market action expected as we lead into Thursday morning’s FOMC decision. All I can say is enjoy the peace while it lasts!
With only 2 and a bit more days left before the Fed finally pushes the button on an interest rate liftoff, any strong directional moves in the US Dollar seem to have already been played out. Barring any market thinning as traders uninterested in a volatility play in the last calendar month of the year take their money to the sidelines, the squeeze has played out and we are going to head into FOMC with value in a move either way pending just how hawkish Yellen sounds.
Are you trading the FOMC Lead Up? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Forget Conventional Economics, You’re a Trader Now:[/B]
I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but tomorrow’s FOMC meeting is most probably going to be the least volatile, biggest non-event of all time. I mean lets be honest, markets and traders have been speaking about, and planning for this Christmas present for what, 5 years now?
Are you trading FOMC? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Fed Hikes Interest Rates; Dovish Hike:[/B]
“FOMC hikes interest rates by 25bps to 0.25%-0.50% as expected.”
The US Federal Reserve has this morning raised interest rates for the first time in almost 10 years. With the move was widely expected by economists and market participants alike, all interested eyes were focused on the pace of subsequent rate increases now that a new cycle had begun.
The Fed Hikes Interest Rates. Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Time to Consider Divergent Monetary Policies?:[/B]
Following the initial equities euphoria, the stops above swing highs survived and sanity prevailed. Interest rates up – Stocks down… Yes, that’s how it’s meant to go!
Today’s blog asks is it Time to Consider Divergent Monetary Policies? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Saudi/Iran Tensions Spike; A Look at OIL:[/B]
Welcome back to your trading desks for the new year, now let’s make sure it’s a good one! Well, it didn’t take long to set up a massive new spin on an old theme, did it!
Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr was executed by Saudi Arabia over the weekend, beheaded for terrorism offences along with 46 others. The execution has pushed Shia/Sunni tensions over the edge with the two sectarian powerhouses set to lock horns in more way than one.
How will the rise in Saudi/Iran tensions affect Oil? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]2016 Market Pessimism:[/B]
And exhale!
We’ve only had two full trading days of 2016 and already the financial world is shrouded in pessimism. Monday’s feature story was the dramatic flare-up in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran after sectarian issues threatened to send oil sky-rocketing.
Don’t let 2016 Market Pessimism cloud your trading judgement. Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Brace Yourselves:[/B]
The bears are coming…
“USD Non-Farm Employment Change: +292K v +203K expected.”
After raising rates at the beginning of the month, for the Fed to see an excellent headline number like that must have felt good. On the surface that might have been the case, but digging a little deeper into the numbers maybe suggest that things aren’t quite as rosy as they might seem.
Brace Yourselves. The Bears are Coming. Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Daily Headline Jaw-boning:[/B]
There are two major headlines flicking through our News Terminal screens today, with the first continuing to keep China in the news and the second back with our old friend the Fed.
Get your dose of Forex Jaw-boning. Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]When to get Contrarian?:[/B]
With the Chinese onshore RMB fix still the big Asian session focus, the fact that yesterday’s number came in 200 points below expectation was huge. Chinese authorities are flexing their muscles and showing they have very deep pockets in a bid to prove that the market is able to trade in both directions.
Are you a contrarian Forex trader? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Australian Employment Data: Why it Can’t be Trusted & Why it Doesn’t Matter:[/B]
Here we are again on the morning of one of the most highly anticipated data releases on the Australian economic calendar, employment data day!
“AUD Employment Change: -11.0K expected, 71.4K previously.”
“AUD Unemployment Rate 5.9% expected, 5.8% previously.”
Does Australian employment data matter? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Friday Optimism:[/B]
Another day and another terrorist attack that doesn’t even cause a blip in markets. Welcome to 2016!
But hey, how about we keep the tone reflecting US stocks last night and be a little more upbeat to end the week. Remember in Wednesday’s when to get contrarian blog, we talked about the click bait headline from RBS telling us to sell everything?
“Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”
Need some Friday optimism? Trading the BoE? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
[B]Chinese Data Dump: In Which Direction Does the Market See the Greatest Risk?:[/B]
The US Martin Luther King Day saw holiday trading conditions continue today, with North American traders enjoying the rest of their day off and Asian traders coping with the liquidity vacuum that has been left.
How to trade the Chinese data? Read more in the Daily Market Update on the Vantage FX News Centre.
More Chinese Stimulus on the Way?:
With Chinese GDP coming in at an expected 6.9%, the emerging economy officially grew at the slowest pace since 1990. That is a 25 year low and opens up fresh expectations of new rounds of economic stimulus from the PBOC.
Trade FX with Chinese Data? Read more on Vantage FX News Centre.
BoC Holds:
The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady at 0.5% last night. After cutting rates twice in 2015 and huge uncertainties around commodity prices and sagging economic growth off the back of them, this decision polarised both economist opinion and markets themselves.
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Focus on Canadian Data Click here for more information
Mario Draghi: The Boy who Cried Wolf:
What did you learn from the stories that you were told as a child? Do you trust people that say one thing and then do another?
If you’re interested in human behaviour, and you should be if you are a trader, then the polarising interpretations of Mario Draghi’s comments overnight between the economist notes and traders via EUR/USD price action is fascinating!
Following Draghi’s monthly speech in Frankfurt overnight, we heard once again that the ECB was ‘ready to take action’ in March (their next decision, with no February meeting) as global risks escalate and inflation goals slip further away.
See more information about EUR/USD price. Check out here.