Can I play spot the box???
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So here is the last one before Monday, yup one hour, please take note of the Mean. Highs, Lows, and Means, so letâs look.
So there you have it, we will be paying attention to follow through tomorrow PM, and looking for positions Monday AM.
The Ever Informative VIPER
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Ha, you are half way around the world, and trade so close to what I am doing. So cool, and amazing. Box trading, a fine concept if I ever heard one. 
The Ever Loving The Box VIPER
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@anon46773462 termed it beautifully.
âSometimes to think outside the box means thinking inside the boxâ
Hi Bob!
Not sure that I said that, but thanks for the credit anyway! ⌠And I do like your box approach! 
This is what you actually said
But in my world that is what I read 
Haha! 
Now I remember!! Yes I do admire your boxes.
As for walking upside down in the spring, it really is a beautiful autumn here in the North this year - after such a wet summerâŚbut I am disturbing TVâs thread here so Iâll creep quietly away now before I get bit!
As a public service announcement, unless you understand this Market right now, STAY OUT.
The Ever Public Servant VIPER
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Well here is what I meant,
" Here we have that nasty range consolidation, well nasty for trend traders, but for the Wiley old Viper, a thing of beauty. This is why we have to be adaptable, a range like this will chop a trend trader to pieces, unless you are someone who never uses stops, yeah that guy, anyway Monday, starts another day."
Ok Thatâs Better VIPER
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How do FOREX (Spot Currency) Traders make money???
Well it ainât how most people think it is.
First I would like to blow up the misconception, and or lie that âhedge funds are too big to make the % returns a private trader canâ, we are going to discuss deep dark and even arcane trading of Big Bucks, Yards and Yards of liquidity, the kind of liquidity known on to the likes of _bob.
10 Billion dollars, 10 Yards, 10 Yuuuuuge, ones, (the last one I made up)
So you are a fund that manages 10 Billion dollars, due to the fact that you know proper money management, you are only going to put at risk 1% of your total fund at any one time, some funds risk even less, but you are a risk taking âcowboyâ so you are at 1%.
100 million, wow such a dilemma, what to do with 100 million? 
Well you could send it to me, or, lets theorize
Remember no leverage, 1:1
-
40 million Short EUR/USD hold till Jan 8th
A. Hedged with Option -
20 million Long USD/CHF same timeframe
-
20 million Long Dollar Futures contracts same time frame
-
19 million Long EUR/JPY same time frame
Iâm leaving out 1 million. because I am not going through the trouble of calculating the cost of the trades and the cost of the options, so 1 million in costs for the trade only.
So lets say we are in the right place at the right time, and by Jan, we are up 5%, now think about this, 1% risk, and 5% return, that is great yeeeeeeehaw.
Now look at the amounts, 40 million, 20 million, 20 million, 19 million, these numbers are easily tradable, and not going to move a market, they would be easily filled and covered. So maybe if you do this 4 times a year, you get 20%. So, the size of the fund does not limit the the percentage, it is the RISK modeling. This the one thing that new traders forget, RISK assessment, RISK modeling, RISK avoidance, but nobody wants to hear this, all they want hear is how a small trader can âbeatâ the big houses at the âgameâ, and that using massive leverage is the route to financial freedom, fame, and fortune.
So lets look at this in a practical way.
Account size 100k usd
Leverage 50/1
Risk % 2.5% Make It Cowboy Size
Trade Size Notional $ 2500.00 USD
Max Units 106471
PIP Value $10.65 at 1.1752
The calculations allow you to start at a baseline, so letsâ assume you are going to risk the whole $2500 per trade.
$10.65 PIP value, give you a stop potential of 250 PIPs, which is generally enough to go through some long term retraces, if you are swing trading.
Remember though there is one caveat here, some say to put at risk only x amount of your capital total at one time in one trade, others say risk only x percent per trade put on, so you donât look at the total risk, just risk per trade.
If you go by the Total Risk % Model, one trade at 2.5% capital, you cannot take another position and still be practicing your Risk Model. But if you use the Total Risk Model and tweak it, you will spread this risk through different pairs, either by tightening stops or what I recommend, taking smaller positions. This allows you to take full advantage of the market. You can be in a swing trade waiting for the market to start moving out of a consolidation, while taking short term trades on a 1-3 minute timeframe.
Now the per trade, no stop philosophy has always made me wonder. If you have taken 5 different positions, and each one has a 2.5% risk, well that to me is a 12% risk, and if someone could explain to me how it is not, I am willing to listen.
Of course you have heard of traders 'Giving It All Back" in other words the gains they made have been given back to the broker, how does this happen? Simple, the market shifts, and the trader is to stubborn to adapt, its as simple as that. The worst part is when someone is giving a clear warning, and folks donât even pause, to think about the possibility, so sad, too bad.
So, lets look at Trader 100k, they risked $2500 usd.
Entry 5/12/17 long 1.0776
Cover 7/03/17 1.1776
On thousand PIPs baby, swingin for the fences.
Profit not counting the spread $10,640 usd
So in 90 days you pulled down 10%, in a very favorable market, using your full at risk capital in one trade, so between one thing and another, IF you can do this 3 times a year, which is a big IF, you make a hair over 30k usd. This is phenom money, not your average hedge fund profit. But even though you are at 30%, at 100k you really are not making enough to live on. And that is the rub, you need money to make money, not more leverage, but more money.
So you can plug it in anyway youâd like to, but reality is reality, you can fantasize all you want, listening to the people who tell you what you want to hear. So be wary and cautious like the 'Ol viper, if it sounds to good to be trueâŚ
The Ever Cautious VIPER
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Viper, Judging from your recent psots you trade small positions daily and make a profit most days 
So why then would you sit with 1% - 2% risk ?
You mean total risk, 1-2%? Yeah got it. Because it is the responsible thing to do.
The Ever Resposible VIPER
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Yet you make profit most days ?
Why then 1% -2% ???
Number one rule, âDefend Your Capitalâ, use only what you need to and no more. Using small % allows for the unthinkable.
Because one day I might not,or for a period of time the system might break down, âmeaning my Brainâ, and it might take a bit for me to catch myself. âMost Daysâ hmmmmm, yes and no, some days I donât take a trade at all, I never do the really short, 5 sec stuff with OPM, only in my personal account.
Seriously, I cannot see myself doing it any other way. It is safe, hehehehe, or as safe as trading can be.I am generally on 15 min timeframe, 5 min entries. 50-60 pips in a trade, for me is an outlier, 22-40, 5 losses in a row tell me to stop and reevaluate.
I see what you are saying, but, I have seen too many traders get caught in unfavorable conditions, they canât stop at 5 losses the head goes crazy, and boom, all the money is gone, and goodby freedom. I prefer to be a Live Dog vs the alternative.
Thats Ever Giving The Reasoning VIPER
50 pips is one Helluva trade 
The quantity yes, the trade itself, not so much, setup, and ride, like I said, itâs an outlier. Really I canât say I take any credit for it when it happens. For example, unfortunately bad things happen and we can profit from them. The shooting of Rep Scalise was one of those large trades, there was a huge spike up, but, from what I know about the world, I knew it would revert to the mean, it did, and we made money. Itâs more of being in the right place, right time, right idea.
The Ever Working Hard VIPER
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Saw this in our local garage while having our winter tyres put on. For some reason it reminded me of youâŚ
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Hehehehe, the paint on that puppy is flawless, I like the plate. I love sweet rides like this.
Here is my goal
The Ever Teutonic VIPER
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Nice!
I think that car I saw is a Dodge Viper RT-10, probably from 1990âs. Nice conditionâŚnice badge:
But, yes, maybe the Porsche (Panamera?) is just a step ahead?
Well bless your heart.
The Ever Southern VIPER
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