With the news of Steve Jobs resigning and such good news being in the media about apple recently, how good their profits were etc etc it got me thinking if this translated with VSA.
Ok it’s not forex, but it illustrates very well how VSA works
So with all the good news the price was going up and the volume was increasing, which is fine, that shows a sustained move, but then there is a peak where my black vertical line is, and in actual fact the price went down on that day, it means sellers were coming in and there were plenty of buyers in the market buying on the back of all this good news like lambs to the slaughter.
I’d say it was more likely a booking of some profits by hedge funds, etc. once price approached $400 for the first time rather than smart money laying some trap. These have been heavily long Apple for a considerable period and are actually the smart money in this case as they’ve made a lot of money riding this up over the past year (+$150 in the past year alone). July 20th was the day after Apple posted some record earnings hence the gap up to near $400 which would have triggered the start of profit taking.
Two days later though the stock market started to crash and you can bet that hedge funds had to start liquidating some more profits to cover the losses they were making elsewhere. Smart money has been buying on dips towards 350 given what a massively profitable company this is. Let’s see what happens now that Jobs has resigned though…
Well same thing really, like you say Smart Money buying at 350, now that the bad news is out and everyone is running for the hills, there will be Smart money doing some buying, and with plenty of sellers for them.
But since he is still chairman nothing really changes fundamentally.
I heard about the apple news when I was driving to the office this morning, and instantly I wondered if it would be possible to profit from such news like the last time S. Jobs stepped out using short selling on CFDs.
The question is, which is the best source? the fastest? This information is very privileged I suppose.
Anyway, you see you’re missing the point, be I right or wrong, this is the point, when you get a bad news announcement you get amateur traders selling because of the gloom, but that’s the time to buy, they might go a bit lower before racing up again when all the amateurs are losing out and all the pros have bought lower and they will sell again at the height of good news.
Thing is I can’t find any Apple share price data for today, so I’m really curious as to where this 5% came from, I’m dying to find out if the theory proves itself in this instance.
It was on some news sites - after hours price of AAPL dropped about 5% after the announcement. It started to recover then and was -2.5% the last I heard as it was dropping into the support zone.
Ah yes it’s getting interesting now, so Bloomberg says they fell at 7:59pm, who’d 7:59pm? Assume it’s UK time, I’m sure there wouldn’t be much volume traded at that time so the 5% is just speculation and conjecture, and more scaremongering so that the pros can buy at as lower prices as possible today, so they’ll be opening about now, and there will be a drop and then at the close and the News will be ‘Apple shares recovered most of their initial losses by the close and were actually up on the day at one point’
We’ll see, anything could happen and it probably will.
What about the pros who actually got the 5%? Or are the pros moving the whole market? I´d suppose the market is moved by investment fonds, banks and etc, if you mean these are the pros, allright.
And who is actually saying that without Jobs the shares will recover so fast? I think actually the iphone is losing hegemony and this will be reflected in the shares. Google´s last movement is one of the cornerstones for such trends.
There is nothing concrete to say that any trades were traded at the 5% below, that could easily be pro traders telling porkies so that they can get the lowest possible prices.
The market is moved by investment funds, but and I’m no expert at this so anyone that knows better please feel free to comment. A stock has to be fundamentally strong for long term investment, for which you suggest it may not be anymore, which is a fair comment, so in the long term prices will decline if this is the case, but pro traders as opposed to long term investors will buy and dips and sell on peaks, it’s just that when the long term is bearish the peaks will be lower and the dips will be lower all the time.
The after hours markets aren’t speculation and conjecture - they’re the real prices. For the NASDAQ the after-hours is open until 8pm EST. There is obviously less liquidity and volume during these hours so you can see large spikes after some big news announcement - as such they’re not really all that great at predicting how the market will open the next day but they do give an idea of how the market has taken a bit of news initially.
There must have been some decent buying in the pre-market as price only gapped down 2% at the open and there looks to have been more buying again at the open itself with some pretty high volume. Probably to be expected - it’s still a very profitable company, has tons of cash on hand and it’s roadmap of development will be fully mapped out already for the next 2-3 years. No need to panic just yet.
I’d say there wasn’t many pros who get 5%. The price drop would’ve have been mostly instigated by large holders of AAPL dumping some stock in case there was an absolute rout the next day. Wouldn’t be surprised if the same guys bought it back again this morning once they saw it wasn’t getting slaughtered. Those hedge funds do love holding AAPL.
I would not be surprised… for example everyday the spanish press confuses the english billions with the spanish billions… a mere thousand fold difference…
Hey Purplepatch, good to see you are incorporating VSA into your analysis…
Though for those not familiar with it, they probably have no idea what you are talking about. VSA is more than just one bar, as you can see by your chart. High volume where buyers are being absorbed by sellers(big money), followed by low volume test on the 4th bar from the one you indicated… then was the time to go short…
that’s how I do it… look for high volume, followed by a low volume test and then buy/sell accordingly
Haha, no, I’ve been wondering if you’d turn up, it was you that got me interested in VSA, remember ‘Volumes Volumes Volumes’, that was about 8 months ago I think, and boy has it proved a strong trading plan.
But I don’t know about a junkie, I just stick to low volume trend continuation, hence my 15m Trend Continuation thread, that is the only VSA setup I trade, I find it the easiest and most reliable setup to trade, to be honest I still get confused bewteen No Supply and No demand, but I don’t care those tc setups are a gem and I don’t have to think too much about them.
Ok, looking at Apple’s price this morning it looked like it closed at the same price or close enough, so virtually no impact over the 24 hours after the announcement, interesting but I don’t think we can draw much from it really, and it’s not that relevant to Forex.
Anyway it’s been on the up all afternoon.