I kinda bet wrong today, and I wanna know when the reverse is gonna happen. Didn’t expect the euro to go so high, should I get out of my position now or wait out. I went short at around 1.588, any recommendations? (besides the usual demo trade advice)
also when do u think this reversal is going to happen if at all
i expect another test of 1.6000, but as the old saying says rather then be the first one in and pick tops and bottoms perhaps waiting for some confirmation?
From what im reading theres some element of guesswork going on, perhaps going acording to a trading plan would be better?
the worst thing you can do is take advise from people in a forum for your trades, you dont know if they are trading long term, short term, scalping etc will you come back and blame everybody for your loss, you need to learn to take them, manage them and close them based on your plan!!!
happy to advise on trading plans and anything else!
N
Depends. I’m short. But my position size is small enough to ride it out.
This is my personal analysis of the EURUSD that I post every day on my blog. I got stomped by admin for posting a link to my blog so I just copied and pasted most of the text here.
If you want to view my blog just google benjaminlfx
Babypips admin: I hope that this is an okay alternative to me posting a link to my blog… please send me a message if its not ok. Just trying to follow the rules here.
My blog also details all of the indicators that I use for my analysis. However, remember that indicators are only an aid. They are not the key to Forex.
Today we went ahead and made that move up that yesterdays analysis predicted. Much of it was on the heels of good US News. So we did not necessarily get the chop that I expected and my targets were actually surpassed.
We are now outside of the retracement levels from the previous swing down that can be seen on an hourly chart it now qualifies as a complete reversal of that swing, which is not surprising by any means since the last swing down reversed at a 50% retracement level of a bigger move up.
Don�t get too bullish yet though, price was stopped dead in its tracks by the top of the channel that I discussed in my previous post on the Daily chart. On Monday this pair will definitely be at a serious decision point. If it breaks this level, 1.6000 is less than 100 pips away which will be another huge area of resistance.
On the hourly chart, price momentum has started to move downward which can be seen by a lower moving average cross to the downside, I use a 5 EMA, 8 SMA. The 21 EMA has flattened out and started to descend. The hourly MACD histogram has crossed down with the MACD falling. This was expected after seeing MACD divergence to the downside as price neared the 1.5930 area. Some of this may be attributed to end of week profit taking though, which I would have expected to have seen already by now, especially from London traders. They have been at the pub for several hours now already.
If price decides to start a retracement before continuing upwards, I will be watching out for the 1.5860 level, where we have a 50% fib of today�s trading range along with a well respected area of horizontal support. If price can break that area on its own without a news catalyst, I would feel very bearish about this pair.
With Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking on Tuesday and Wednesday, I would not be a bit surprised to see price chop all day Monday and allow this event to be the catalyst to either break 1.6000 or respect the channel / psych level and head back down in the direction of US Dollar strength. Other news events to be especially watchful for will be PPI m/m and Retail sales m/m on Tuesday before the Chairman speaks.
My overall bias on this pair has moved from cautiously bullish yesterday to �wait and see.� We are at a decision point here and this pair will need to tell us what it wants to do next. However, note that I would have a much easier time believing a move down here than up, assuming that none of the fundamentals change, or we have a big news release. I doubt with all of the releases next week that we will not find one that will point this pair in one direction or the other. As for Monday though, I will be very cautious and will not be trying to enter any long term positions.
Keep the short. Just my opinion.
I wish I would have caught that last surge before IBFX closed. I would have grabbed a short too.
If it gaps open Sunday. I will have my shorting trigger ready to go.
I shorted EURUSD all last week and lost some money… looks like I am going to short again this week though, I can’t go against what the indicators are saying to me. Some people are saying it’s going to break resistance, but it just seems way too overbought.
thanks for all the replies, obviously I’m not going to hold anyone accountable. I don’t see what’s wrong in asking people what their predictions will be.
Either way i lost a little money since the Euro/Usd continues to go up, any new developments over the weekend? Let’s see how this one fares