After a busy week with five major banks’ policy meetings, this week’s economic calendar is relatively light. The greenback suffered heavy sell-off last week before and after Fed’s interest rates decision and Yellen’s implication for only two rate hikes this year from four that had planned in December. The British pound recovered some of its earlier losses following BoE policy meeting that kept the monetary policy unchanged, but the weekly performance remained in the negative territory. The euro was traded mixed during the whole week while the Japanese Yen rose as the BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned that theoretically there is more room to slash interest rates further and the central bank will revise this possibility.
[B]THE WEEK AHEAD: Mar 21 - Mar 25[/B]
On [B]Monday [/B]morning, Eurozone’s Current Account for January will be released. The German Buba Monthly Report is scheduled to be published. Later in the day, the U.S. Existing Home Sales for February are expected to be 5.40M from 5.47M before. In Australia, the CB Leading Indicator will be eyed, as well as the preliminary Consumer Confidence in Eurozone as a whole. Early on Tuesday’s European morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will give a speech. Early on Tuesday’s European morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will give a speech.
On [B]Tuesday[/B], expect from the UK Inflation Report, the Markit PMIs, the German IFO and ZEW Surveys will attract market’s attention. Firstly, during the morning, the German IFO Survey will be released. The Business Climate and the Expectations are predicted to have improved in March while the Current Assessment to have declined slightly, compared to the last month. Shortly afterwards, investors will keep an eye on the flash Markit Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for March. Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 51.4 from 51.2 while the Services PMI to remain unchanged at 53.3.
Meanwhile, going to the UK, February’s final inflation report will be published. The year-over-year Inflation Rate for February is forecasted to have remained at 0.3% and to rise by 0.4% from -0.8% before. The month-over-month indicator is expected to turn back to positive at 0.4% from the tumble of -0.8% in January. The Producer Price and Retail Price Indexes will be out as well. A while later, the ZEW Current Situation and Economic Sentiment for March are predicted to come out and improve to 53.0 from 52.3 before and 5.9 versus 1.0 prior, respectively.
The Producer Price and Retail Price Indexes will be out as well. A while later, the ZEW Current Situation and Economic Sentiment for March are predicted to come out and improve to 53.0 from 52.3 before and 5.9 versus 1.0 prior, respectively.
We then turn to Unites States, the economic calendar is very quiet yesterday with only a smattering low-level data out scheduled. The preliminary Markit Manufacturing is forecasted to rise at 51.8 from 51.3 before. Other indicators regarding manufacturing and housing sectors will be released.
On [B]Wednesday[/B], no major events or speeches are expected that will affect the market importantly across the Europe. In U.S., the New Home Sales for February will be released and later in the day, New Zealand’s trade balance is scheduled to be out.
On [B]Thursday[/B], early in the morning, the German Gfk Consumer Confidence survey for April will be released – no changes are expected. In Eurozone, the Economic Bulletin and later, the Targeted LTRO will be released. In UK, the Retail Sales for February are coming out. Compared to the last month, the Retail Sales are predicted to slump by 1.0% from an increase of 2.3% prior.
Moving in U.S., the weekly Jobless Claims will be out as usual. The Durable Goods Orders for February, are expected to have decreased by 2.3% versus an increase of 4.7% the flash figure. Overnight, Japanese Inflation Report will hog the limelight.
[B]Friday [/B]is a bank holiday in most European countries and the commodity countries so liquidity will be thin although, the U.S. final GDP for Q4 may well cause some ripples in the market if the forecasts do not be met. The forecasts suggest the figure to remain unchanged at 1.0% quarter-over-quarter.