Weekly Outlook: Mar 28 - Apr 01; U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, EU Inflation and UK GDP Ahea

Even though no major indicators came out in the week just past and the traders were preparing for Easter holidays, the major currencies enjoyed some volatile sessions. The greenback ended higher after Fed officials claimed that rates may rise in April. The strength of the dollar acts heavy pressure at the stocks and the commodities driving the commodity currencies to record severe sell-off. The pound was severely depreciated against the major currencies as the terror attacks in Brussels set the risk in the continental Europe extremely high and the number of British citizens will vote for Brexit in June increased, driving sterling to fall heavily in all fronts. The euro has been choppy the whole week and has been range-bounded against most of the currencies.

[B]THE WEEK AHEAD: Mar 28 - Apr 01[/B]
After a muted week in terms of fundamental economic updates, the week ahead will be pretty busy as we head to the first week of April on Friday and the Non-Farm Payroll Report will be released. In Eurozone, March’s final Inflation Rate. In UK, final GDP growth for the fourth quarter, coming out on Thursday, will be eyed.

[B]Today [/B]there are no major indicators or speeches scheduled for Eurozone and I expect a quiet day driven largely by technical factors during the morning session. In the second half of the trading session, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures for February and the Pending Home Sales for the same month are coming out. Overnight, the Japanese Unemployment Rate for February is expected to come out at 3.2% as the month before. Retail Sales are forecasted to have risen by 1.7% in February from a decline of 0.1% the previous month.

The economic calendar looks like on [B]Tuesday[/B], with limited macroeconomic news. Especially during the morning, no major events are expected that will affect the market importantly. Later in the day, the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence for March is predicted to rise to 94.0 from 92.2 in February. During the night, the Japanese flash Industrial Production for February will be out.

Early on [B]Wednesday[/B], traders will eye sentiment indicators coming from Eurozone for March. The Consumer Confidence is expected to decrease further in the negative territory, to -10.0 from -8.8 the month before.

Services and Industrial sentiments are forecasted to show a small improvement. In Germany, Inflation Rate is scheduled for release. Two days ahead of the U.S. Job Report, the ADP Employment Change is coming out and is forecasted that that the U.S. non-farm, the private sector added 194k jobs in February from 214k jobs prior.

Later in the day, the UK Gfk Consumer Confidence for March is predicted to show a decline in the negative territory at -1.0 from a 14-month low February at 0.0. Nothing surprising as the sentiment in UK declines due to the Brexit fears. The last time, the confidence among the investors was below zero was the last quarter of 2014. Overnight, in Australia, the ANZ Business Confidence for February will be out as well as the New Home Sales.

On [B]Thursday[/B], various significant indicators will dominate the agenda. During the morning, in Germany, the Retail Sales for February and the Unemployment Rate for March will be released. Shortly afterwards, investors will shift their focus to UK. The final GDP growth for the fourth quarter is coming out but no changes to the preliminary figures are expected. The qoq indicator is forecasted to remain at 0.5% and the yoy at 1.9%.

The Business Investments for Q4 and the Mortgage Approvals for February will be released as well. A while later, Eurozone’s final Inflation Rate for March is predicted to improve to -0.1% yoy from the first estimation of -0.2%.

Going to [B]Friday[/B], the final Markit Manufacturing PMIs for Eurozone as a whole, Germany and UK will be out. The highlight of the day is the Non-Farm Payrolls report. The U.S. economy is estimated to add 197k jobs in the non-farm private and public sector, from a robust 230k in February. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at the record low level of 4.9% and the hourly wages to have risen by 0.2% from a slight decline of 0.1% before.

The final Markit Manufacturing PMI for March is also coming out as well as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment which is expected to have improved slightly to 90.5 from 90.0 before.