And may we be a nation once again 
1 Like
It will be very sad if any of the home countries leaves the UK. But not so sad that they should not have the option.
As far as NI is concerned, it is doubly tragic that UK governments have repeatedly dealt with the issues in such a ham-fisted way. Not talking about Brexit, I’m going back centuries. But we are where we are - so if NI thinks it should be out of the UK, just as Scotland might, they have the right to leave.
It would be interesting if there were some sort of independence race going on here. Imagine what would be the situation if one country left the UK, say either Scotland or NI, and the second to leave the UK was England. How would the remaining two countries feel about that?
An unlikely scenario but not impossible. Stranger things have happened. A few years back Breton separatists were calling for a unified Breton nation comprising Brittany, Wales and Scotland.
116.000 poles left the UK in 2018. Seems many more to follow soon. So the brexiteers get exactly what they want. Skilled people with jobs, Phd’s and degrees are leaving the country.
I wonder what happens to real estate prices when a city in the size of Sheffield leaves the country and gets replaced by unskilled labourforce that needs years of training just to resume standards held years before as the normal.
As estimates suggest half of the polish UK population will be leaving the UK after brexit.
Could the UK lose a million or two of its population after brexit if other citizen of other nationalities also chose to leave?
No doubt the Polish government would rather that hard-working tax-paying Poles in the UK were hard-working and tax-paying in Poland. He might be expected to have concerns apart from the best interests of his Polish compatriots in the UK.
I hope nobody who is hard-working and tax-paying in the UK needs to leave due to Brexit.
That is true and an oft cited situation regarding “immigrant workers” - and clearly in this case the uk’s gain of young workers is Eastern Europes loss domestically.
However if you drive thrugh Poland as we did a few years ago, you will notice teh Plethora of new and part built houses at the side of semi derelict old dwellings. - One may surmise as we did, that the young people who were working in teh uk and elsewhere were sending money home, to finance this building work. This is perfectly logical action if the young people were intending in the fullness of time, to return as locally wealthy residents.
What the “working and paying tax in the uk” argument fails to recognise is that the action of sending money home effectively equates to invisible “import costs” to the uk, which are not recognised or accounted for either in the official figures or by those extolling the virtues of “immigrant labour” as net contributors to the uk economy.
Similarly, the same actions are bringing money into Poland and therefore can be equated to “invisible exports” of great benefit to local tradesmen and builders suppliers etc.
Plus I certainly don’t accept the value of any argument that Poles or anyone else are “taking all our jobs”.
If a foreign national lives and works in the UK he is contributing to it’s economy with the rent/rates/paye/Nat Insurance/ electricity/phones/clothing and all the other costs of living.
If he is able to send money home then that must represent his savings - he has 3 choices, either to put it in a bank, put it under the mattress or send it home.
Only the first choice marginally affects the UK economy, the rest have no impact.
In my city there is a huge re-cycling plant operated on a 24hr schedule, I often see the busses pick up the workers all of whom are foreign nationals.
I often wonder what exactly does the Govt do with the extra PAYE/Nat Ins that these guys pay - I do know it didnt go into healthcare.
Does it just go into the pot and then we grumble when we cannot get a GP appointment.
Anyways, I know I wouldn’t like to work in that plant - it’s the rats you see…
Fair points.
Common criticisms of (especially) Eastern European workers in the UK are hard to square up. Firstly they take jobs from British workers by taking low pay, secondly they send piles of money home rather than spend it here.
If they’re on such low wages, how can they be sending vast sums of money home?
Aye and it’s funny how these things can work out in the long term.
My father worked in England, he lived a frugal life there saving and sending money home, then eventually coming back.
Because of his hard work my parents were able to ensure that i got a grammar school education (not private but still costly).
Because of that education I was able to get a job in business management as a 17yr old.
Because of that first job I was able to start up in business and have since paid a lot in corporation taxes/rates/vat etc back to the UK. Also have been lucky enough to employ others who likewise have paid their taxes over the years.
BTW - the sky news story this evening has a certain substance - the Irish PM is to meet Boris next week in NY - the Taoiseach was overheard to say that the ‘mood music is good’ (although the official line is that the gaps are wide).
Anyways, more pound buying up ahead methinks.
2 Likes
Well certainly the recent figures for UK are significantly better than for EU and today the BoE held interest rates again whereas the EU reduced theirs and spoke again of QE.
Coupled with the more placatory rhetoric coming from Barnier and Verhofstatt yesterday and today - That is a possible - unless the “Supreme Court” situation is decided on an ‘unusual’ basis next week - we shall see 
sorry about my absence in the talk about “guest workers”
i thought of making a long post, but i fear it will anyways fall on deaf ears.
so here ill just post a few numbers
cost of rasing a child in the western world: 0-18 years = parents average $210.000 / government = 110.000
cost of rasing a child with higher education in the western world: 0-24 years = average $290.000 / government = 150.000
cost of rasing a child with high education (phd) in the western world = parents: $290.000 government = $320.000
if we count the polish guestworker population in the UK as 75% normal educated, 22% higher education and 3% high education then the united kingdon owes poland the amount of 389 billion USD
or if you want to look at it in different way: every polish worker needs to send aroun 700 USD home to poland every month to make up for that economic loss, taken into acount he works 35 years in the UK.
i highly doubt anybody does manage to send 750 home a month with the jokes of a paycheck they can earn in the UK and especially after deducting the cost of living, and even less so reliably every month for 35 years.
in fact 95% never send any money home from day one.
whoever think that any building in poland has been build by money sent from the UK, simpy lives in the 1990ies. as poland is the fastest growing economy in europe. the GDP has risen by 400% in the last 25 years. i hardly believe poland needs any money beeing send by workers abroad to build any houses.
and the statement of the polish prime minister saying “people come back, we need you to work here as we have almost no unemplyment and high wages” supports the idea that poland is not interest in any way in money beeing send from abroad by any polish guest workers.
And here:
1 Like
People not educated in higher economy do not understand what a huge benefit it is to recieve guest workers from developed economies. Its like using steroids for your own economy. The effects are hugely positive in several factors. and the negative effects for the country out of which they emmigrate is much worse than the positives that immigration/emmigration creates for the beneficiary country (the one they immigrate to).
Taking in workers from undeveloped countries is less beneficiary as they need years of schooling before they can contribute and usually they can contribute a smaller amount of time as they need extensive and expensive schooling in ordee to be able to contribute.
But poland is a developed country and anybody out of poland has enough education to start a job in his/her field on the very first day after arrival.
Here this research of a oxford professor might shock you:
https://www.ft.com/content/f1ca7b14-b1d6-11e8-87e0-d84e0d934341
It is conducted on immigrants from developed economies (europe, america, japan) immigrating
to US and UK.
2 Likes
The market views the court case as a side show - the outcome should not affect the greater picture (except that the PM does something silly).
Likewise the market is ignoring numbers on Eur/Gbp - the turning point was mid August - daily a H&S had begun to form - the breakdown came with the Merkel and Macron meeting with the PM and the positive comments from all parties. (see down candle Aug 22).
Overnight the Asians bought some more again on the positive notes - maybe a little rest today but off to work again Monday.
Btw Irish Foreign min still on about gaps which is actually positive, means he’s following the official line - keep it quiet.
1 Like
Well it looks as though “the market” seems to be considering SOMETHING !
IF as you say the weakness of the EU Figures compared to the relative strength of the UK Economy, in spite of the huge efforts made in “Project fear” over the last months is being ‘ignored’ - they’ve certainly got SOMETHING on their minds
[Perhaps - just Perhaps the Traders are beginning to see through all the Propaganda Hype and realising that that is just what it is ! - As Uk Voters did in 2016 and still do ! ]
UK reject EU deadline. Theres just one issue with UKs rejection: The UK has no voice in this and in EU internal affairds or deadlines. Luxembourg with its roughly 600k citizen has more to say than the UK.
It takes only 1 EU country to say “no extensions anymore” and the UK is out, with or without a “deal”. France already barely allowed the first 2 extensions, a third is unlikely to be approved by Macron.
So BoJos refusal isnt worth a dime. But just a thing he always does: “seek publicity, hold big talks and gets nothing done”
Your analysis is clouded by that very thing - hype lives in the short term - mostly being reacted to by day traders - it’s there to be used.
Look again at your EG weekly it’s rangebound reacting to the ups and downs of Brexit news.
Go a little the left, i.e. before the Brexit vote where the numbers are at play.
Anyways - short term traders maybe caught out today as the ‘hype’ has swung the other way, i.e. the talk of the gaps between the sides.
Like I said early this morning
That is pretty much the definition of “Forex trading” - (For obvious reasons) - In fact it’s one of the main reasons I came over here in the first place ! 
The trick is in deciding WHICH range it is “Bound” in ! 
That chart seems to have lost 600 pips in the last couple of months and only has another 300 to go to the bottom of the “Range” - unless of course it breaks out into the next range up size wise !
Money leaving the country = Import
Money flowing into the country = Export
As I went on to expand, in the rest of my post.
You’re not discussing this with ME @peterma - it is simple economic FACT ! as per all the textbooks !
I posted on BP a few years back, someone was talking about books.
One evening I was reading one of these books - whatever it was I had read it caused a sudden realization.
I dumped almost my entire collection (into recycle of course ).
Only Murphy, Wyckoff and Livermore survived - the rest in my mind are like that court case or indeed that guy that is always trying to kill Bart Simpson.
I’ll likely get ticked off for multiple posting by discourse but just thought I’d mention the importance of levels combined with FA and TA.
Over the years I’ve gotten to learn where the banks place their holding lines - just like the backs do in soccer.
Most my lines are yellow, but the odd time they become like the Brexit negotiations - they become red.
I posted this back in June 2018:
This is that same red line today.
Edit: the up arrow was some discussion or other earlier this year.