Take a look at the technical position of gold trend, it seems that gold will choose the direction in the near future…
However, I am not optimistic about the rise of gold in the “early stage of the election”, and there will be further correction in the near future. The reasons are as follows:
From CTA fund’s position in gold, we can see that the current long position is continuously decreasing, falling to a new low since April last year, and the capital is not optimistic about gold in the near future!
The plan of stimulating water release has been written for many days, but the view is that it can not be achieved before the general election! The bill shows that some progress has been made in the negotiations, which gives the people confidence, but there are many difficulties in practice! Some time ago, gold plummeted so much after the stimulus bill was called off. It can be seen that the current gold market is very concerned about the expectation of the bill!
As the first promoter of the stimulus plan, if the democratic party falls to the ground, all the credit will belong to the Democratic Party. Trump is not stupid. He will not let his enemies get election chips. Then he simply delays the bill, which is undoubtedly the best choice for his party! Of course, once the dust of the election is settled and the victory or defeat is known, no matter who is in power, the first factor is to save the economy, and there is no need to delay the water release bill. At this time, the benefits of gold will gradually appear!
2、 Readers’ questions and answers:
Some readers have asked why the US Federal Reserve is not indifferent to the fact that the current US economic expansion and water release measures are not over, but the US debt ratio has actually risen back to the 200 day average, which puts greater pressure on the US debt enterprises? As shown in the figure above, the reason is very simple. This shows that the Federal Reserve thinks that the current economy has not yet reached the level of dove. In fact, this is not conducive to the rise of gold. On the other hand, from the perspective of trading, it also shows that investors in the market choose stocks more than bonds.
As for the impact of the US election on precious metals, I will open a special course tomorrow night to help fans and readers explore more trading opportunities during the election with 11 years of derivatives trading experience!