What do you think of these stats?

Trading Systems
1

I have been using forex tester quite extensively. What do you think about these stats on one of the systems?

Profit factor 1.4ish
Win probability 71%
Loss probability 29%
Average Profit 4.52
Average Loss 7.77
Gross profit 759.99
Gross loss 543.82
Return 21.62%
Profit trades consecutively 11
Loss trades consecutively 4
days processed 1981
Trades per day .15
Max profit 53.12
Max loss 12.49

It is a trend following system that takes half profits early then reduces risk to 0 on the second part of the trade. There is also a trailing stop im experimenting with for the second part of the position. Sometimes there is a full loss of 1% but often price closes outside of the signal and then i close it manually.

I also have the following i just dont know what they mean.

Restoration factor 3.31
Reliability factor .05

Id like to get the profit factor higher which i think i can do with tinkering with the first take profit and the trailing SL. Currently looking at ways of using the ATR for the trialing SL.

I know a higher profit factor is better but the win % is promising…

Thoughts?

2

Well i have made some changes to the system and reran it. The changes is usually the W timeframe with the same strategy and only taking positions on the D if they align. I figured this would act as a filter. I also now take profits on the first but try to let the winners run instead of using a trailing stop. I re ran it on EURUSD this time and i got the following:

Time:
Days processed 3566
Months processed 117.16
Trades:
Total trades 372
Profit trades 218
Loss trades 53
Profit trades cons. 9
Loss trades cons. 3
Trades / day 0.10
Trades / month 3
Profit trades / month 2
Loss trades / month 0
Max profit trade 199.92
Max loss trade 129.60
Income:
Net profit 3037.25
Gross profit 7655.30
Gross loss 4618.05
Profit / month 25.92
Average profit 35.12
Average loss 87.13
Max drawdown 478.71
Profit factor 1.66
Return, % 30.37
Other statistics:
Max lot used 1.80
Restoration factor 6.34
Reliability factor 0.05
Profit probability, % 80
Loss probability, % 20

This is successful in that my profit factor has jumped quite a bit. In real life i would be happy with a profit factor of 1.5. I am improving this but i still think there is more work to be done.

3

More testing completed. I have continued to use the W to align with the D which is where the trades take place. THis acts as a filter and makes me buy & sell only into strong trends rather than chop. Also i have moved to using the 1/2 the ATR for the first Tp and then derisking. The 2nd TP I use 2x the ATR and try and move the SL to lock in gains as the pair moves the right direction. Also if I see a trade go wrong i watch the candlesticks to look for signs my idea is invalid and then sell at a loss rather than the pair hit the full SL. My profit factor is increasing while the win % is mostly staying the same. I think i am getting there. Id be happy with a profit factor of 1.5 in real life.

AUDUSD

Time:
Days processed 3631
Months processed 119.30
Trades:
Total trades 410
Profit trades 266
Loss trades 50
Profit trades cons. 18
Loss trades cons. 3
Trades / day 0.11
Trades / month 3
Profit trades / month 2
Loss trades / month 0
Max profit trade 161.24
Max loss trade 123.00
Income:
Net profit 2965.52
Gross profit 7318.15
Gross loss 4352.63
Profit / month 24.86
Average profit 27.51
Average loss 87.05
Max drawdown 458.15
Profit factor 1.68
Return, % 29.66
Other statistics:
Max lot used 2.24
Restoration factor 6.47
Reliability factor 0.05
Profit probability, % 84
Loss probability, % 16

EURGBP

Time:
Days processed 3380
Months processed 111.08
Trades:
Total trades 396
Profit trades 250
Loss trades 66
Profit trades cons. 10
Loss trades cons. 4
Trades / day 0.12
Trades / month 4
Profit trades / month 2
Loss trades / month 1
Max profit trade 160.85
Max loss trade 135.57
Income:
Net profit 3506.82
Gross profit 9476.48
Gross loss 5969.66
Profit / month 31.57
Average profit 37.91
Average loss 90.45
Max drawdown 499.33
Profit factor 1.59
Return, % 35.07
Other statistics:
Max lot used 2.16
Restoration factor 7.02
Reliability factor 0.06
Profit probability, % 79
Loss probability, % 21

EURJPY

Time:
Days processed 3745
Months processed 123.07
Trades:
Total trades 472
Profit trades 293
Loss trades 50
Profit trades cons. 7
Loss trades cons. 2
Trades / day 0.13
Trades / month 4
Profit trades / month 2
Loss trades / month 0
Max profit trade 145.63
Max loss trade 143.24
Income:
Net profit 4147.01
Gross profit 9170.00
Gross loss 5022.99
Profit / month 33.70
Average profit 31.30
Average loss 100.46
Max drawdown 450.66
Profit factor 1.83
Return, % 41.47
Other statistics:
Max lot used 2.18
Restoration factor 9.20
Reliability factor 0.07
Profit probability, % 85
Loss probability, % 15
4

Seems like you’re still testing so cant really conclude anything till you try it live. But looking at the stats it doesnt make sense:

Your max profit is 145.63
You took 4 trades of which 2 were profit.

But your
Net profit is 4147.

What am I missing? The calculations don’t make sense.

5

Yeah look further up, total trades were 472. Those numbers are per month. I need to do more testing but record the indicator numbers for statistical analysis. Only way to increase profitability more i think…