Hi, YourFriend0. I´ll not solve your problem because my trading plan is really different, i trade with naked charts so i don´t know to tell you some concept to modify your trading plan. But i get an optimist message for you, retracement after a signal is produced it´s the key to trade markets. If you´ve arrived to this feature is just one step to solve your issues, doing this you´ll do have a profitable trading plan.
Just a suggestion, try to trade a liquidity pair, auddkk is strange. usdjpy and nzdusd aren´t runners but they are tidies, at least until you solve your issue.
Kamajafx, thank you for your reply.
What did you mean with: ''retracement after a signal is produced it´s the key to trade markets"
Did you mean I should wait for signal of whichever trustworthy indicator or pattern and then wait for trend to go into the opposite way comparing to what indicator or pattern is showing? What would be the point for this? As far as I can think of you are referring to Elliot Waves indicator (not supported by MT platform) which shows exactly this.
I trade where i see quality opportunities with ‘‘sufficient/acceptable’’ Spread, not what is ‘‘strange’’ and what ‘‘not strange’’. But it seems like i still have a lot of work to do to accurately estimate what opportunity is quality enough.
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Frecuently when a pattern shows me that a signal to change the trend is possible and i open a position, the first market reaction is an opposite movement to that signal. Many times my signals appear at a wave 4 so i wait the end of the wave 5 to open a position. Many times my signals appear before to touch a resistance/support area so i wait the pair touches that area to open a trade. About instrument you choose, just i tell you that to find a profitable trading plan should be easier to find it with instruments with more liquidity where the charts are neat and later you could change pair. Maybe the word “strange” wasn´t the best word so i´m apologize. i didn´t read exactly with what time frames you work. could you tell me?
@YourFriend0 no, it’s at resistance, I would expect it to turn down, as it did do, you need to study and figure out why, the trend may continue and break through resistance but had I anticipated the trade and gone long I would now be in a losing position.
Kamajafx: H4 but i found that several wasted weeks, probably wasted months, on few (unfortunately not all) positions could have been saved if I was analysing also D1 and not just H4. I wasted a LOT of time being eager to NOT loss the money: waiting almost endlessly for loss to come to zero and then further increase into profit to at least cover negative Swap.
BufferBloat: You misunderstood what i previously typed. The uptrend would be expected IF green candle upward crossed your blue resistance line (its closing above said line). But of course I am aware we need to give priority to the theory that on support/resistance lines, trend reversal happens and not upward/downward (in your case upward) cross.
Our trading plans are really differents but could you backtest your trading plan with H1, D and W charts? Forget H4. For me this was great. I post at nzdusd thread. Could you backtest the nzdusd and to post at that thread, too?
With high timeframes don´t decide what pair to trade by it spread. Spread isn´t important because you are not a scalper. Try to trade a pair more liquid like i told you, furthermore you could read posts about the analysis of that pair at this forum. You can post, too so you help traders at this forum. It´s difficult that somebody opens a thread about audnkk.
Spread surely is important just like Slippage is and most likely some other factor(s) too. When, after opening position, the current loss (as you are aware of, when position is opened, its almost always in loss first due to market instability) come to zero depends on all those factor(s).
What did you mean with ‘‘backtest’’? Not sure what are you asking me to type? I am definitely willing to but not understanding you what are you referring to what ‘‘should’’ i do?
My brief comment about current situation on NZDUSD would be the following (note: i still don’t understand what ‘‘backtest’’ is - not sure if ‘‘backtest’’ means ‘‘commenting the current happening on chart’’):
symbol: NZDUSD
time on chart: H4, D1
comment: Opportunity to open Short position if LIPS curve of Alligator indicator further downward crosses other two curves of the same indicator. Look for closest downward fractal to be completely downward crossed by red candle (if it occurs). First possible Take Profit could be considered at 0.69626 where major downtrend is.If that support line gets downward crossed, it is to be considered as resistance line. In this case expect a further downtrend all the way down to 0.68980. On D1 today (8th June), the currently formed candle must be in downtrend confirming previous bearish primary pattern.