ICT showed us a piece of data from a company called “Moore” something or other showing seasonal data on the Cable. Haven’t been able to locate it since. It’s all falling right in line with the data too! Should bottom out in the Middle of the month.
I posted a screen shot of the seasonal tendencies in this thread a while back. I don’t post a lot so if you search my previous posts you should have no trouble finding it
Cheers
Its the Moore Research Center, google it, its the first one listed in the search
Awesome! All the other combinations I tried didn’t work for whatever reason.
Hello all,
I am still in the process of checking my understanding of ICT’s overall approach to the market. Some time ago, he posted (301 Moved Permanently) the following - an explanation of why the optimal trade entry works. I’ve read this over and over again, and I admit that I just [U]do not[/U] understand what he is saying. Could someone with sufficient patience and knowledge please help with a clarification?
I know where the OTE will sit in relation to recent highs and lows; what I am trying to understand is the reasoning behind it.
Cheers, Pajo.
Today took my first trade of the month on cable, London open, keeping in mind the TT was only looking at longs.
bought at 15935 half off at +20 was at b/e before news so now at +80 was setting my tp at R2 16090 maybe expecting to much with Fiber not wanting to make h/highs. not sure where to get to be honest?
taken profit at 16070 more than happy 
OK, so price is going up for a period of time, and all the people watching their nice indicators and not paying attention to support and resistance think that it is just going to keep going up and up. The smart money, i.e. the banks, play off support and resistance so they know what is fair value and what is not, and they will turn price down when it gets to a certain level. Not all of the bears will get on board at that first resistance level, and so to give themselves a second chance they push price higher again to suck in the dumb money that thinks this is a continuation of the trend up. Once they have got the dumb money on board, they take the other side of the trade and push price down.
The very bold entry would be to trust your judgement when it comes to S&R and short with the very smart money. This could catch you out a lot unless you know the pairs inside out. The next best think is to wait until there has been a reaction at the S&R level, and wait for a retracement to go short - this is the OTE entry. Another way to enter might be to look for certain bar formations - pin bars, outside bars, inside bars etc, but I don’t believe this catches as much of the move as ICT’s entries do.
I don’t know if that has made it any clearer!
OK. And I assume this is an upward trend. So it will have established a previous low and will be pushing towards new highs (Thanks for jumping in and trying to explain this).
The price hit resistance where the banks want to start going short. This results in a retracement against the trend, I assume. I presume that, since a high has now been formed, it is possible to draw in the Fibonacci, using the latest salient low and high, to see where the OTE will lie.
So, to me, this suggests that the OTE is a marker for where the price will begin to rise once more. That is, when the retracement is over and the trend resumes. I think I have got that, but what I am not so sure of is the bit where you say the banks give themselves a second chance. This appears to mean a second chance to get others to give up their long positions. I am not sure what this has to do with where the OTE appears.
I am not sure, either 
Beautiful London close on Fiber today;)
[quote=“Pajo,post:3596,topic:35718”]
OK. And I assume this is an upward trend. So it will have established a previous low and will be pushing towards new highs (Thanks for jumping in and trying to explain this).[QUOTE=Pajo;278841] Correct
[QUOTE=Pajo;278841]
The price hit resistance where the banks want to start going short. This results in a retracement against the trend, I assume. I presume that, since a high has now been formed, it is possible to draw in the Fibonacci, using the latest salient low and high, to see where the OTE will lie.[QUOTE=Pajo;278841] Fibonnaci from the high that has just been formed, to the retracement low.
[QUOTE=Pajo;278841]
So, to me, this suggests that the OTE is a marker for where the price will begin to rise once more. That is, when the retracement is over and the trend resumes. [QUOTE=Pajo;278841] Bear in mind that the last resistance point to be hit is a major resistance point. This ends the trend. Price is not going past this point, at least not if we are in touch with the smart money. The retracement that you are concerned with here is not a retracement but the start of the new trend. The retracement is when the banks push price back up.
[QUOTE=Pajo;278841]I think I have got that, but what I am not so sure of is the bit where you say the banks give themselves a second chance. This appears to mean a second chance to get others to give up their long positions. I am not sure what this has to do with where the OTE appears.[QUOTE=Pajo;278841] The banks are going short…they need to take the price up one more time to get a good price to go short. They just need to push price high enough to fool people into thinking the original trend is resuming.
Turn all of your thinking on its head. You think that the first pull back is just a retracement in the original trend. This is exactly what the smart money is banking on (excuse the pun!) If you know your S&R levels you will know that the trend is most likely NOT resuming.
signal came in before LC KillZone started, didn’t take this one
Cable seems to bottom at 1.5920, tested 3 times on the 1h chart, so I assume that it’s the leading part now and fiber is likely to follow up for a while. Maybe I’ll enter long in tomorrows LO, but I’d like to watch a bit and see what price is doing. Could be a good oppurtunity as we’ve seen strong down pressure and we need a retrace to continue the trend. Last day was a short range day and today’s is not that great, but expanding. Let’s see
greetings
Alishijo,
I’m sorry, but I am no clearer about this than before, then. I appreciate your attempts to help, but I do not have a clear picture of the price movements, the machinations of the banks at each point, and how the OTE relates to it all. In other words, if I had to explain this to someone else, I would be completely unable to make a start at it. I wonder if someone else would like to have a go?
Cheers, Pajo.
[quote=“Pajo,post:3600,topic:35718”]
That’s my interpretation of it:
Let’s assume we’re looking for a short. Price moves up to a resistance and institutionals decide to enter short, but they enter with large amounts so the price drops, but they want to get in with even more positions. They would like to get the best price and wait for the price to trade up to the resistance again, offering the possibilty to add more positions.
Dumb money is now looking at the charts after the bounce of the resistance and sees price is going up. They react to this and go long, hoping that they can break the resistance or want to take profits at the resistance. But before they come to their targets, institutionals destroy their plans and enter at the OTE, move the price down, change the trend and clear out the longs of dumb money.
Maybe it’s a bit simplified, but I hope I can help a bit 
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greetings
The OTE is brilliant. Here’s my simple understanding of it. When you take an OTE at confluence, first of all you’re at a level where price is likely to turn around, ie key s/r, and since the OTE is a deep retracement entry, price has already turned around there! So it doesn’t get any more high-probability than that.
And I like what everyone else said about how the different traders are (re-) acting. That was very helpful.
I’m totally confused about the bond yield overlay chart. What does the failure swing tell us about the dollar?
For example, suppose the bond yields are going up and one doesn’t. What does that tell you about interest rates and the dollar?
Thanks.
Also, is there any relationship between stocks and currency? Like, when the Dow and Nasdaq go up, there are more investment flows into the US, strengthening the dollar. Does that make sense? Or is there not alot of correlation there? I tried googling it but couldn’t really find anything, maybe that means there’s not alot of correlation. Not sure. Thanks for any insight you can share.
I’ve noticed a slight inverse correlation, actually.
Nice pip-taking there, slowman. Can you post the chart with your entry/exit points and where OTE was in all this, if it’s not too much trouble? Would really help visualize. Thanks.
Alishijo,
Thanks for your perseverance! Your latest post certainly helped, because it clarified that we were talking at cross-purposes (to some extent). I follow what you say about the banks driving the price back to the point at which they want to enter. However, now that we have separated out the various parts of this question, I can be more specific about what I am asking.
The OTE is situated on a retracement, 62-79% of the distance between a recent salient high and low. My question was: why there, exactly? You see, ICT’s original email was described by him as an explanation of why OTE worked - at least that is how I read his post.
Thanks again, Pajo.