yes,I think so.
I`ve just checked with Manta Market Flow indicator on 1M chart and this is correct.
Okay, and that logically makes sense to me that it would shift to an upward trend after it breaks a swing high, but I was sure ICT had said there had to be a new fractal high formed above an old fractal high to shift the flow upward.
Nice trade, Matty. I was done trading for the day, and the week for that matter, and so didnāt take this one, but I can safely say you followed all the rules. As Jaroon pointed out, you should ignore Market Flow with an LC trade that is over the ADR. It is counter trend and will always be against 1 hour flows, and most probably 4 hour flows aswell.
The reason why you should aim for 38% retracement on THIS trade is that price has been trading over its central daily pivot for 3 days in a row now, and traders will be looking to take some decent profits if it sets up at London Close. 38% is a typical Take Profit Fib retracementā¦it captures a consolidation, but does not go as far as to say it is a trend change. In this case you shot for the 38% of the daily up move, but if you thought there might be a stronger consolidation of the larger 3 day trend then you might like to draw your Fib from the low of the previous day. Regardless, you should of course take 1st TP early (20 or 30 pips), and hold tight on the rest once you have taken the risk out of your trade (i.e. brought up the stop loss).
Regards
Ali
Thanks Ali. I appreciate it.
Matty
London Open trade for today
Looking to go long at 1.5633ā¦
Reasons for trade:
- MF on 4h up
- OTE
- S/R from previous day R1(1.5632),1.5632 (previous support), and 1.5627 (previous resistance turned support)
Reasons not to trade:
- not getting much info from SMT or US Bond overlay
- daily and 1h MF down
- price opened around CPP
So I sat and watched as price went down to 1.5632 but didnāt trigger my entry (I guess due to the spread???). I then did an amateur move and panicked and bought at 1.5643 outside the OTE :o because I was scared to miss a move that I thought was playing out just how I anticipated. I justified it to myself because I had originally place only a 20 pip S/L below the CPP so Iām still only risking 30 pips. I assume this is a big no no for the disciplined traderā¦Had I gone to bed while my order was pending, I simply wouldāve woken up to see that the order hadnāt been triggered and just have had to deal with it.
Now I wait for to TP at 30 pips and then set a pending TP and adjust my stop loss so I can go to bed. Which reminds me, does anyone have a good EA for mt4 Alpari that I can use to take partial profits so I can perhaps get some more sleep : ) Only one I have found online wasnāt compatible with my software.
Curious if anyone else took this trade, or if they thought it was not a good trade since price opened up so close to the CPP.
Thanks
Matty
PS - I feel like Iām hogging this thread with posts and I apologize if Iām annoying anyone, I just think that its such a fantastic resource to be able to bounce ideas off each other and have other, more experienced people give me feedback on my trades. So thanks again, you all rock!
last evening //london time// this set up took place,was liking the failure on EU candles, was late hour for me to take it,maybe i will next time,one might say 5 minute is too small to look at. SMT is an addition.
once again, 30 pips,perfect close,sometimes its perfect,sometimes just falls with a grin on a face,
but as i mentioned,this is just additional ammunition which happened to b yesterday high EU and r1
//price falls again,still happy//
I stayed out for today. I couldnāt get a handle on things or be convinced of a trading bias in todayās LO so just sat on my hands. No trades for me, and it can be a bit frustrating when youāre looking for some direction but donāt want to force the trade either.
Anyway, youāre not being annoying by posting your trades and ideas. This is how everyone can learn to spot setups, learn from mistakes, and bounce ideas around ultimately bringing more clarity to the concepts taught. Good luck.
Thanks sladha, looking back now I definitely feel like I was forcing it. I got stopped out with my LO trade, and then I woke up to the NY open and saw price trading right back down to the same support lines I had drawn and there was another OTE, so I couldnāt help myself but to get in. I took 1/3 off at 30 pips before price hit the daily high and slammed back down. Took out the other 2/3 around 25+ pips partly because I was just mad at myself for even taking the trade in the first place and because I thought it was gonna go all the way back to my entry. Anyways, I can definitely see that I like to be in a trade more often than not and thatās something I gotta work on. I think the fact that I was concerned about price opening at the CPP, and didnāt have a good grasp on the directional bias (and I even mentioned it in my trade post!), that shouldāve been enough to keep me out of the trade in the first placeā¦not to mention I was trying to buy in the sell zone. I just gotta take it as a learning experience and press on.
Matty
I took 2 trades today.One loss and one win.
The first one was in LO,sell fiber at 1.3583.Reasons:
MF down(1H and D1 down),sell zone,fib between daily high and daily lowā¦stopped out at 1.3620=>-37 pipsā¦0.33%.
The second one was on LC,sell fiber at 1.3625.Reasons:
I`ve found a divergence between previous day highs and daily highs,between fiber and cable,HH/LH =>bearish divengence.I took profit after 2 pivots,MR1 and CPP at 1.3570=>+55 pipsā¦0.54%
Any thoughts,comments pleaseā¦
Nice London close trade.
I have two newbie commentsā¦so take 'em with a grain of salt.
First, in the E/U short you took, you say that MF was down based off daily and 1h, but I remember ICT saying that if there isnāt agreement with the 4h market flow from either the daily or 1h (which is the case here), then you should trade in the direction of the 4h. Additionally, the day opened up at, and was right around the CPP at LO, and I believe I also remember ICT stating that those are not ideal conditions for a trade.
Just my two cents. Someone who knows better PLEASE correct me if Iām wrong. Thanks
Matty
Thank you for your comments,Matty,thank you very much!
Youāre welcome, but I honestly donāt know for sure if those would nullify the trade setups according to ICTs methods. Would love to hear other peoples thoughts. Thanks
Matty
London open short on the cable tonight
Reasons for trade:
1)MR1 1.5648
2)Institutional 1.5650
3)Support and Resistance level from the last two days at 1.5645
4)Sell zone
5)OTE from previous days hi/lo
Down on 15m TF to find OTE at 1.5641
Take profit plan:
- 1/3 off at +30pips just below CPP
- if price breaks below 1.5600 level I think it will shoot for yesterdays/Asian session low just beneath 1.5550 institutional level (which also happens to be todayās S1)ā¦so i plan on taking another 1/3 off at 1.5555
- If price moves past 1.5550 I would shoot to take the remaining 1/3 off near MS2/127.2 retracement, looking for 1.5510
- I think thereās a chance for a large swing today as we have had some smaller range days to start the week and we are also in part of a OTE type retracement from a fib on the 4h charts.
So yeah, thatās my trade. Its against 4hr market flow (PipARush) but S/R trumps market flow right : )
Matty
Update: Well, moved down to the CPP and then shot up and stopped me out. SOOOO frustrated right now. Going to bed so I donāt try and make up for it by taking another trade. I just donāt get where I was wrong with my analysis. Maybe the 4h MF? Did I miss something obvious? Should I have paid more attention to the previous days highs? Is there reason to ASSUME price would move up above those highs to take out stops? Ugh.
Hi Matty,
As well as MF, try to analyze the balance of power between bulls and bears, aka, are we in a buy program or a sell program?
Dont forget the trend is your friend.
Your absolutely right, SR does trump market flow, but if you look at price action on the daily and four hour time frames its been bullish since the 22nd sep.
As i read somewhere, āif your team has won every game so far this season, you donāt bet on them losing the next gameā
I took the same trade, technically we where right but the freight train ran us over. Very hard to read it atm.
The best bet was the 5700 and the inter week high fade as a lot of the battery was used up very quickly getting up there, I didnāt take that one because i get a little disspondent straight after a wrongin sometimes but it was on my mind.
Wally
Well that makes me feel a bit better Wally. After kind of an up an down first 7 days with more losers than winners, I had reserved myself to only taking trades in the kill zones at the appropriate buy or sell zone. Perhaps now I should narrow it down to the right buy and sell zone, kill zone, and inline with 4h and 1h market flow?
On a side note, Iām not sure if Iām using ADR correctly. Should I be calculating it using the same time frame that my pivots are being calculated from, or just use ADR from midnight GMT to midnight GMT regardless? This is what my chart currently looks like:
If its correct, it wouldāve worked nicely for a LC tradeā¦but is it? Or do I need to adjust it for EST? Thanks
Matty
Thanks Hunter. So I knew I was going against the 4h, but the amateur in me liked my S/R levels a bit too much perhaps? Should I just always try to go with 4h flow almost no matter what? (excluding LC trades) And maybe Iām too obsessed with fractals, but on the daily TF, the previous fractal high, which formed 8-29, is no where near being broken, so isnāt market flow still bearish on the daily charts? How did you determine it was up like the 4h? Thanks!
Matty
Hello guys!
I took a trade today,sell fiber at 1.3660
Reasons for trade:
-found a divergence between PDHs(previous day highs) and daily highs,fiber/cable
-MF down
-MR1
-previous R1
-sell zone
I set the initial SL 10 pips above the ADR high at 1.3690 and TP at 1.3570,previous day CPP.
After the price has moved 50 pips in my favor I changed the SL to BE+1ā¦and stopped out at this level :29:(1.3659)
ā¦so I changed SL too earlyā¦nice :)!
Your right, market flow is down on the daily, i just meant that the market had been trading up since the 22nd, making higher highs and higher lows.
I try to only trade when the four hour is in sync with the higher time frames, that generally keeps me the right side of the action