What Every New & Or Aspiring Forex Trader... Still Wants To Know

hi guys,

wonderful thread, i found it today! thanks ict and everybody for this great help for newbies.

i have a question: i read a lot about market structure and market sentiment. what do these both terms mean exactly? where is the difference? are there postings or videos that explain both things?

thanks!
fx

FX freak
Have a look on the first page for all ICT videos ā€¦ treasures

[I]Market structure[/I] and [I]market sentiment[/I] are two very different things.

There are two different meanings to the term [I]market structure.[/I] One is: the overall organization of the forex market, from the interbank network (at the top of the forex food-chain) to the individual retail trader (at the bottom). This is [B]not[/B] the meaning of the term that you are asking about. Unfortunately, if you search google, or Investopedia, or even the Babypips School, for [I]market structure,[/I] just about everything you find will refer to this overall maket organization.

Hereā€™s my homemade definition of the kind of market structure that you are asking about:

If you study naked price charts, using only these tools: horizontal and vertical lines, trend-lines, pivot levels, and Fibonacci levels ā€” then, [B]the patterns[/B] which you see, and learn to anticipate, [B]constitute market structure.[/B]

In other words, market structure utilizes candlestick analysis, pattern analysis (flags, double tops, etc.), and support-and-resistance; it does not utilize moving averages, oscillators, Bollinger Bands, or other indicators. Some traders might include average true range and tick-volume in a market-structure approach to trading.

[I]Market sentiment,[/I] on the other hand, generally refers to how buying pressure and selling pressure are lining up against each other. It is generally measured [B]in places other than on price charts.[/B] One example of where it is measured: the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report in the [I]futures[/I] market can furnish valuable information to traders in the [I]forex[/I] market.

Here is an article which might point you in the right direction, as you begin to study market sentiment ā€”

Forex: Gauging Forex Market Sentiment With Open Interest

You may not be ready for an entire book on the subject of market sentiment, but you could download this one, and keep it in your library for when you are ready ā€”

SENTIMENT IN THE FOREX MARKET.pdf - 4shared.com - document sharing - download

Thanks for the latest PTC video, Michael.

hi clint,

thank your for your detailed answer which was VERY helpful.

so in a summary: i use the market sentiment to determine the direction. afterwards i use market structure to get the perfect entry and exit?

one question about the market sentiment: the last video from ict shows intraday trading. he only stayed some minutes/about an hour in a trade. for my understanding he (and we) are only trading specualtive intraday moves which arenā€™t primarily based on the correct direction from the market sentiment. i think this tool is perfect for longer position-trading but for intraday scalps it is not that important. perhaps you could clarify if iā€™m right at this point.

the better question is: how do i trade intraday in the correct direction? after reading ictā€™s postings and watching his videos i found out that he is uses fractals on the 4h-chart. if the upper fractals are penetrated than we trade long and vice versa.

on the other side i found that fractals are sometimes lagging indicators and that the direction based on the fractals is sometimes wrong. for example today: the next fractal down is at 1.5525 on gu. we might have an intraday retracement to this level which means only to trade short but we would look for a long the whole time which is (in my opinion) wrong.

so my questions are:
did i understand everything correct? :wink:
did i describe the method to find the trade direction with the helpf of fractals correct?
is it true that they might lag sometimes as described above?
are there ā€œfaster indicatorsā€/other methods than fractals to find the correct direction?

thank you!! i really appreciated your answer!!

enjoy the day :5:
fx

hi guys,

here is my trade from today:

i went long usdcad @ 1,0309 which was the 62%-retracement. i went long because market flow from the 4h is up. but if i look at the daily, the flows are down and in this big picture i trade a daily retracement. would you guys take this trade? if not, why?

please comment this trade that iā€™m able to understand what was wrong/right based on ictā€™s teachings.

thanks :50:


enjoy the day
fx

two other trades. both based on 62%-ret of the last moves in the direction of the h4-flow. the usdcad-trade earlier was stopped out. i donā€™t know if this is the correct thread for real-time examples. please tel me if it is ok to post my trades here. i donā€™t want to spam anything :wink:

comments are appreciated!!



Of course you can post trades here! You might want to add daily pivots into the mix for stronger confluences at your 62% retrace entry.

I like that previous days range/current days range indicator you got on the second chartā€¦care to share where you found it? :smiley:

akeakamai,

i cant upload files here, so you have to search on your own. it is called ā€œPivots.mql4ā€ and i think i found it on ff. just just google or the ff-search :wink:

I didnā€™t trade this as it was well within the ADR bounds, but Iā€™d like to know if the following setup would still constitute valid entry for an LC trade.

Long Entry @ 1.55851

Reasons for taking the trade:

  • Confluence of institutional level 80
  • Confluence of MS1
  • Countertrend
  • LC KillZone

Reason for not taking the trade:

  • Within ADR range

For the sole reason that it was within ADR range, I didnā€™t take this trade. According to ITCā€™s technique, should LC trades only be taken if they lie outside the ADR range? Or is it just a matter of greater probability that a winning trade would have more chances of unfolding at LC if itā€™s outside the ADR?


Would you guys/girls consider previous days price action on the fiber as a Z-day? I believe ICTs tools lined up pretty neatly on fiber @ 1.3625 this morning!

Confluences

  • Ins.level 20
  • OTE (barely on the 5min timeframe)
  • Bullish SMT
  • PP
  • @ the 50% drawing the fib from previous high to low
  • London Open kill zone
  • MF up

I think the market might try to challenge previous weeks high, weā€™ll see.

Not in the trade myself, but I saw it coming :21: Thumbs up ICT!

Yikes. I couldā€™ve sworn all the signs pointed to a bear day so I had shorted at around 1.3650 at around 3 AM. The news at the time was also bearish for the euro. Should I even pay attention to the news? I saw a bearish divergence form at 2 AM on the 5 minute chart. Should I only look for the divergences at a higher time frame? That was probably my biggest mistake.

Got blown out at the LO. Was a pretty disappointing trade. It looked like we had a solid OTE from yesterday on the daily chart that would continue down. Found an OTE during LO and took it short and went to bed and woke up to a 200pip movement up. Where did I go wrong, ICT? :frowning:

Daily chartā€¦ Daily chartā€¦ Daily chart

I think Iā€™m starting to get this Market direction thing, the weekly and daily are up and the four hour made a fractal above the most recent previous low.
Use daily for more long term direction and four hour for daily direction.
Unfortunately I wasnā€™t at the PC this morning so missed all of todayā€™s mega move on the cable. Ho Hum never mind.

I drew a fib from 10/10ā€™s high to low. Sure enough at 2 AM price was in the OTE (around 72% retracement) with confluence at institutional level 1.3620. Iā€™m just shaking my head at myself.

Maybe I shouldnā€™t type ā€œeuroā€ into google news as part of my analysisā€¦ :33:

Also, I used Mantaā€™s market flow indicator to determine Market Flow and it said bias was SHORT at the 4 HR time frame. That also contributed to my poor decision. Looking at the fractal indicator it was clear price was making higher lows on the 4 HR time frame at 2 AM. I didnā€™t remember there were recent posts about the indicator saying there may be a bug at the 4 HR time frameā€¦ OH WELL! I guess Iā€™ll just use the fractals to eyeball it from now on. :stuck_out_tongue:

I canā€™t figure out what youā€™re saying here.

Did you mean to say that you drew a fib from the [B]October 11[/B] high to low?

If you do that, you do indeed get an implied OTE sometime after 2am New York time.

[B]But, that OTE implies a sell signal, not a buy signal.[/B]

What am I missing here?

Please post a chart.

Donā€™t forget about S/R levels. If you had support/resistance in mind and examined the 4-hr and Daily chart, you would have noticed we were at a support level with Cable in the buy zone at around the 50 institutional level. I have it marked on
my chart but Iā€™m on my phone now, Iā€™ll try posting it when I get a chance.

SladhaFX,

Was this level around 1.5560? Just want to make sure I understand what price level you mean.

Thanks.

:confused:

These screenshots are taken from the daily charts to pose a question to ICT:

To clarify what you see here: This is NOT what I did last night, but rather regret not doing. I wouldā€™ve set up a fib from the 10/10 low to the 10/10 high because that is the direction of the swing of this candle, low to high.

I wouldā€™ve picked this candle over the 10/11 candle to take my fibs from because the 10/11 is a range candle.

Right? Do you take the fib levels from the prior dayā€™s candle or the prior ā€œmomentumā€ candle on the daily chart when beginning your analysis for the day? I donā€™t think ICT refers to momentum this way, so Iā€™m not sure where he would stand on that question, and I donā€™t claim to know the answer myself. Having said that, it appears to me that drawing the fib in this way would have signaled a buy to me.

Clint, did you think I meant to say this?

Or this?