The rule of thumb is that the high or low of the day is made at about 0800 - 0900 gmt 80% of the time. If its a trending day price should continue in that direction until LC or until the ADR is fulfilled
Actually, now you bring this up, this is another aspect that I am not clear on. If a high forms at, say, 0900, then the price continues to trend in that direction, upwards, the 0900 high will clearly not be the high of the day. Do you think ICT just meant the high or low of the day [I]so far [/I]when he talked about this? I always had assumed that he meant the high or low of the whole day.
He does mean the high or low of the whole day. If a low forms at 0800 then trades up all day then we made the low of the day at 0800. If it trades down from there then we made the high at 0800
That seems logical, but it doesnāt seem to agree with what you said earlier.
Latest post suggests reversal, earlier one suggests continuation. Confused now 
Well whatever the price is at that time of day, it will trade up or down from there.
If price trades up from that point then it was the low of the day, if price trades down from then, then it was the high of the day
I just scanned some of the last pages on the thread, and Iām seeing a general complaint about struggling to find direction on the higher TFs.
Letās take the marketās price action back to some logistical basicsā¦
What is the key factor in a [B]bullish[/B] trend? [B]New Highs[/B]
What is the key factor in a [B]bearish[/B] trend? [B]New Lows[/B]
Now thatās a simplification of the HH/HL and LL/HL definition I do use overall, but making new āextremesā in price is what TREND is all about. This simplification is what drives the Market Flow concept that ICT teachesā¦ itās all about breaking those fractals. The hard part really is waiting for the retrace to hunt out a low risk entry.
So just in case I lost anyone there, if you are struggling with 4H/Daily/Weekly biasesā¦ just ask yourself:
Is the market making fresh [B]Highs[/B] or [B]Lows[/B]?
If it is doing [B]Neither[/B], then be careful friendsā¦ you are in consolidation! Consolidation on higher TFs means [I]whippy[/I] price action on the lower timeframes!
Hope this helps, I know this higher TF bias can be very elusive when you are in the heat of battle on those 15m/5m charts 
Pajo,
Sorry I didnāt want you to take that the wrong way. I do find it nice that people help out and give us answers instead of saying look at posts 100-999 and the answer will be within these pages.
After re-reading my post it did make it sounds like I was bashing you but I didnāt mean it to sound like that at allā¦sorry I posted, I will shut up now so I donāt make it worse.
The low or high of the day is usually made before 04.00 EST, Lets say the low formed at 5650 at 03.00 EST and price rallied and made a high at 5780, price then fell off a bit and went to say 5730, If NY opens lower than the London high, you can expect that London high to be tested again, you want to see Asian session highs at 5730 and other confluences to get long and retest that high of 5780.
Price can then do 1 of 2 things.
They can then reverse the flows and sink price or price can carry on with its original direction until Ā± 18.00 GMT.
What they do depends on the state of the market, have we been going sideways? Have we been trending the past few days? Do you expect a large range day today?
Take last week for example, we clearly trended in just one direction, When the market is in that kind of state, I ask a lot more of my NY open trades, If we going sideways like this week, you want to take 70% off as soon as that London high is retested. If you look at yesterdays price action we had a high made in London, we opened lower, Cable then slightly made a new high while Fiber failed to do so, SMT bearish divergence(your early warning signal to cut your long) and the flows reversed. Personally I donāt like trading NY open when the market is consolidating but what I love doing is trading London Close when the market is consolidating, I donāt mind giving up the pips of the NY open trade and waiting for price to really get to the upper resistance level at 5850 and then shorting (look at London Close trade on Wednesday). That is what I call the trade for the week, that is the trade I wait for and If I donāt get it I will wait for the next week. Every week there is always one knight among the peasants and you want to be riding on his horse, not walking with the peasantsā¦
Shaun
Many thanks for attempting to clarify this. I do appreciate it very much.
My original question was whether the direction established during London open was repeated or reversed during New York open. I get the impression that the answer is just āmaybe, maybe notā, and I can live with that.
The discussion has since moved on to the subject of the early formation of a high or low. This is a slightly different thing from the very simple question I originally asked, but it is equally interesting, and thatās why I appreciate the assistance. I just want to be sure I follow this correctly.
You mention Asian session highs here just as an example of potential sources of support, I presume.
Price can then do 1 of 2 things.
They can then reverse the flows and sink price or price can carry on with its original direction until Ā± 18.00 GMT.What they do depends on the state of the market, have we been going sideways? Have we been trending the past few days? Do you expect a large range day today?
Take last week for example, we clearly trended in just one direction, When the market is in that kind of state, I ask a lot more of my NY open trades, If we going sideways like this week, you want to take 70% off as soon as that London high is retested. If you look at yesterdays price action we had a high made in London, we opened lower, Cable then slightly made a new high while Fiber failed to do so, SMT bearish divergence(your early warning signal to cut your long) and the flows reversed.
I think you are using the word āweā in two different ways here: firstly meaning the market in general, then meaning US-based traders, correct? And when you say you ask a lot more of your NY open trades, do you mean that you expect more pips, or that you want the trade to meet more entry criteria than usual?
Personally I donāt like trading NY open when the market is consolidating but what I love doing is trading London Close when the market is consolidating, I donāt mind giving up the pips of the NY open trade and waiting for price to really get to the upper resistance level at 5850 and then shorting (look at London Close trade on Wednesday). That is what I call the trade for the week, that is the trade I wait for and If I donāt get it I will wait for the next week. Every week there is always one knight among the peasants and you want to be riding on his horse, not walking with the peasantsā¦
I am trying to perfect my London close trades, as it happens, so this particularly interests me. Do you operate on the assumption that just before London close the price reaches an extreme for the day, and then moves strongly in the opposite direction? This seems to be a pattern that appears frequently, with price often moving beyond the dayās opening price.
Cheers, Pajo.
Yes, that is correct, Asian highs are often traded back to as support on trending days and then kick off again with the move, this pullback to support at the Asian highs is often during the NY open killzone.
When i used the word we in both instances i was referring to the general market.
If we are in a trending market I ask a lot more in terms of pips but I never take less than 50% off at the London high, If we are in a sideways market I will take off 70% at the London high
In a trending market I require less for an entry, in a consolidating market I require more. This is just how I trade but not to say you have to trade that way too.
When it comes to London Close trades I like to short at the top of a trading range, so in a consolidating market i want to short right at the extreme resistance of that trading range, the basic logic behind this is that It is extremely unlikely that we will break out of this trading range during the London close session. I will also ask for more in terms of pips. London Close trades donāt really fall below the days low, very uncommon but as Michael has said in the past, London close trades can get you into good swing trades, I like to think of LC trades in a consolidating market as potential mini swing trades as they can yield good returns. I would suggest going back 100 days and documenting LC trade setups. What pip returns did they on average yield in trending markets and consolidating market environments? Look for general setups requirements etc, This should give you a general idea of what you can expect.
Yes the trade is based on the assumption that the high of the day has been clocked in and you can expect a retracement. Michael suggests pulling a FIB from the high to the low of the retracement and then waiting for price to trade back up into 61.8% for OTE, Take profit is determined by pulling a FIB from the low to the high of the day and look for price to retrace 38% from the high of the day and pull back into its range for the day. If you get SMT bearish divergence between theses highs the trade becomes āgold statusā. Thereās no hard rules Itās more of a framework, I donāt want to alter his work but if you operating around this framework you should pip it.
You may have noticed this already, and if I wasnāt late for work already Iād post a chart to show you, but zoom out to the [B]1H[/B] timeframe and check out your entry from that perspectiveā¦ I think youāll see something interesting
It usually helps to zoom out to a higher TF when you are looking for those bigger swings, but you probably donāt need my advice lol 
Interesting nugget of information on the London Close in regards to consolidation in the market. When you enter at the top of the trading range, has the ADR usually been exceeded? I assume not. Iām hoping these fuzzy areas will become clear when ICT releases the London Close video.
I had the same question in regards to trading direction of the NY open. I sent that to ICT a few months ago and he asked if it was OK if he would answer it in a PTC video. Maybe he forgot because of the volume of questions he receives, or maybe I just missed it somehow. My question was is there a way to tell if it is likely that the NYO will reverse direction of the LOā¦conditions and/or patterns to look for. If anyone can answer, it would be appreciated.
Shaundd, thanks for your well written and thought provoking post. Iām already seeing how in the last week I could have turned my LC scalps into swing trades
Hey everybody,
Nice LC on Fiber Reasons for taking it:
- ADR exceeded
- Hit previous week resistance & this weeks high
- Monthly fairvalue area (failed to trade through)
- 30 pip swing away of resistance
didnāt need any more Entered @ 1.3890. Stop to BE at 20 pips profit, to 20 pips at previous low (40 pips profit) and closed @ 1.3830, 38.2 Fib retracement of the day lined up with previous days high, which I thought it would be tested again. Pretty much for a LC trade, but it went fast and easy with a 22 pips SL Let me know if youād like to see a picture, but I think the thread is full of them and I feel like Iām spamming it with pics of trades :S
greetings
At the end of the Day/Week, Iām always picking off those 20/20 Hindsight 100 pip movesā¦but you actually had the order in! Well Done really, but ouch on the actual turnout : P
LOL, Itās always these near misses that I remember never the ones I actually got, they compound on your psyche 
Actually it was your early post about making new highs/lows that brought me back my simple but effective trading senses.
Is it going to be 1. a trending day or 2. a consolidation day.
If 1. look for the s&r to buy/sell the dips/peaks.
If 2. look for the pivot zones, s&r and stop hunting stuff.
These are my hammer and saw tools of trading all the other stuff eg. CoT, TTās ect are specialties tools like a spirit level, philips head screwdriver ect Iām going to use them at some stage but most of the house is going to be built with the hammer and saw. ākeep it simpleā or in my case āsimple does as simple isā.
Wally
Yeah, I saw the 1H and I was so close to keeping some of the trade on. I guess in the heat of battle I was just happy to protect my gains for the week rather than extend them. The fact is, I shouldnāt have entered the first trade at all if I was concerned about that! Live and learn.