What Every New & Or Aspiring Forex Trader... Still Wants To Know

Beginner Questions
4331

Same, i managed to bank 46 pips from the spike. My original plan was that i thought they might try to take out the buy stops above 1.3960 but when i saw the spike i took profit manually. Lucky i did.

Unfortunately i had already entered earlier on when price retraced to the 62% fib level and formed a hammer on the 15 minute chart. Should have been patient and waited for the CPP entry. Anyway i got stopped out.

My 20 pip stop was to tight, it rested just above CPP, nooob mistake but hey, we all make em. Nevermind, the spike payed handsomely

4332

I also wanted to point out the 2nd eu OTE, the EU came back and touched the 3850 institutional line and s/r to the pip. Further proof those levels must be marked on your chart that you make your entry plans. I only saw it now after looking at the institutional level chart, I don’t have it on my pivot/fibs chart as too many lines.

4333

It bothers me a bit that there is such uncertainty over basic concepts such as average daily range. I’m perfectly able to accept that every dealer’s feed is different and that it is therefore quite impossible to guarantee that every trader gets the same information from indicators. But when it is clear (from the discussion between Clark, Alishijo and Clint, for example) that on top of these small feed discrepancies there is no real agreement about how many days there are in a week, when days open and what the formula is, then the whole argument that certain indicators work in a self-fulfilling way ‘because many traders watch them and react to them’ is undermined, it seems.

4334

Have you looked at a Cable [B]daily[/B] chart lately?

ICT is always saying (although he could never say it enough) that the path of least resistance is with the flows on the Daily/4H charts.

Of course you can short when the daily chart looks like that, but you gotta be nimble, and dare I say experienced :wink:

4335

Yes, I’ve been paying attention to the flows of the daily chart (which looks like it’s on a rise), but the reason I favored the short was due to the 1.6000 resistance. Regarding the daily chart, it looks like a large range day may be imminent considering the relative short ranges of recent days.

4336

With all due respect, Pajo, the ‘uncertainty’ would only bother you if you haven’t tested it over an extended number of trades and proved to yourself that regardless of discrepancies (just as there are between GMT and NY pivots), it does work. Maybe I misled you when I said I didn’t ‘trust ICT_ADR’ alone. I do trust it, but I am now trying to work out if my profitability will increase with the addition of NY close ADR. Clark has used ADR with Sunday candles and has been rewarded, and it seems ICT uses ADR on a platform with Sunday candles aswell. I use what works for me, and I would encourage all other traders to do their own due diligence.

4337

Clearly using due diligence is necessary. I am not unaware of that. I’m currently comparing three different sets of pivots. I am resigned to comparing multiple combinations of ADR day/time settings and formulae, too. I can foresee that there are going to be other areas of uncertainty as well. This proliferation of unanticipated variables simply multiplies the already protracted learning time and lends further uncertainty to an already uncertain process. I’ve been thinking about the best way of approaching the overall problem. At this stage the best idea I have is to invest in one of the back-testing programs, just to get access to sufficient volumes of data, and then start writing some code to run tests. Yes, it bothers me a bit that this now seems like something I have to do, because I am sure this is redundant, as all the same comparisons must have been done multiple times already. I just didn’t expect to have to do all this. I am sure there are a lot of beginners reading this and thinking the same thing.

And incidentally, I don’t think this should be confused with the question of personal preferences. Whether GMT or some other basis for pivot points gives the better performance (however that is measured) is not dependent on the trading style of whoever does the testing.

4338

I wonder if anyone went long on GBP/USD an hour ago (08:45-09:00 GMT). There was a very clear OTE (Fib pulled from yesterday’s low to today’s high), supported by NY central pivot. I didn’t, because there was no other support in the OTE zone, and I guess it was already outside the London open kill zone.

4339

Yeah I made the ‘mistake’ and went long at 15900, I think I saw the same ote retracement… also looking at higher tf… envisaged still aiming for 16200 area before ote to short…I think I am over analysing…someone help me!

4340

Kill zones extend 1hour either side.

Wait for the pivot buy/sell zone, look for confluencing factors, trade off the daily-4h charts, nothing shorter than 1h and enter on 5min-15min charts. And above all … wait. Wait for the price to come to your [B]sensible[/B] entry area.

Wally

4341

Kill zone this morning so far was the fiber. Had a nice OTE setup with EST DPV sandwitched right in the middle. I wasn’t down in time to take that but it went to the range top for a 30 pip profit if you exited when it failed near the range high 1hr s/r

Edit: GU went into late kill zone for 8am trade that was taken. Here the confirming s/r was GMT S1 and 1hr s/r ledge sitting there along with long term bias.

4343

I had a short bias on Cable this morning at London Open and was observing the previous day’s high price as a level for a potential short. I had my entry set for 1.60340 at an OTE measured from most recent swing high to most recent swing high, giving confluence of MR1, yesterday’s R1, and PDH. Price climbed up to around 1.60335 and then dropped, missing my entry by half a pip! I took a screenshot of the OTE at time of LO and what has happened since.

Click to enlarge:

4345

I just took a london close scalp on Cable and happy to report it went successfully. I used previous day low from 3 days ago - a very relevant level - to gauge my entry. Price was beyond ADR, in the buy zone, and counter-trend of the day. I went long at 1.58985 with a stop loss around 20 pips away. I probably should have scaled out, but I wasn’t sure if I would be around my computer after entry.

Click on charts to enlarge:

Edit: With my fib extensions it looks like there’s confluence of 261.8 level and S/R level of 1.5955 - could this be an area of ptential take profit: ?? I really should have scaled out!!

Edit #2: Now look at this reaction to the aforementioned confluence of 261.8 fib extension level and S/R price level of 1.5955. Just goes to show you how reliable these tools are. Price smacked right into it and dropped like it was hot. Zoomed in for clarity.

Edit #3: In addition to being at an S/R price level, isn’t it interesting how this 261.8% TP level just happens to be MS2 as well?

4346

I think the discussion of which pivot to use GMT or EST is really moot. Put them both on your chart (simply change the symbol use 249 for a box without filler). Notice how fiber likes to adhere to GMT pivots during london and EST during US. Today for example during london PA stayed above the GMT DPV. However, at 7am sharp PA touched the EST DPV to the pip before spiking high (and clearing all those stops) right to the EST R1 + ADR High. PA then feel all the way down to EST S2. GMT S2 was right below that level but since we were in US time we should look to the EST pivots as the controlling levels.

But you say that isn’t always the case! True, look at yesterday fiber and see how the PA spike short was to the GMT S1 with EST S1 below. The point is, put them both on and look for areas where they are close together, that is likely going to be an area of interest if you have other supporting factors. Pivots are just 1 factor even when EST and GMT agree it counts as one.

This point is proven by the fiber’s retrace. It spiked the GMT DPV and fell, then finally spiked the EST DPV and fell lower. But guess what else we have, we have a nice BRO 1.3900 which is a daily s/r level.

4347

Hey everybody,

what a day :slight_smile: changed my bias more often than my underwear! Maybe a bit noobish, but I think it went well for me. This week was a bit hard I think.

A picture tells more than thousand words :slight_smile: Nice to see the tourtlesoup on Fiber headed down exactly at 1.39800 - institutional work here? :stuck_out_tongue:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

greetings

4348

Really appreciate the thread ICT you make trading seem less gimicky and really intuitive, something that undoubtedly takes time to develop but definitely a good place to begin.

4349

Idk if it is supposed to be automatic after download but how in the world do you get the macros to work in mt4 i have been playing around for awhile and just cant get them to work.

4350

There was no discussion. I completely agree with your points here. I suggested that you can use either/or and still be profitable, or, use both. Using one pivot over the other is not going to send you to unprofitable hell because if you are using the pivots as they should be used, then you just aren’t going to get into as many trades. I have used both GMT and NY pivots during LC, and I don’t have any preference. The most important factors for me at LC are S&R and numbers, and if one of the pivots is a confluence, then great. What I am doing with ADR now is fine tuning to see if I am missing out on opportunities.

3 Double Tap LC scalps in 2 days. 4.5% or 75 (averaged) pips for those who can only trade that kill zone. USD/JPY, Cable, Swissy.

4351

I’m not surprised that you are confused by my previous post. My wording was confusing, to say the least. Let me try again.

There are countless ways to calculate an ADR, and they all purport to indicate the current “range” for a particular pair, on a particular time-frame, taking into account a particular amount of past history (the moving-average look-back period).

Some of these ADR’s are more useful (for ICT-style analysis) than others. What makes one ADR better than another? Only the degree to which it tells us something useful about the next day’s range. And there’s only one useful thing that it can tell us: What would be a “normal” range for the next day, and what would be an “extreme” range for the next day?

If “size didn’t matter” in the calculated ADR, then we could simply use a nice, flat, easy-to-read 200-day moving average of the true range — and be done with it. For the GBP/USD, the ATR(200) has been stuck around 138 - 140 for weeks. That’s an easy number to remember. No daily checking or calculating required — just use 140 pips as the magic number. If GBP/USD gets too far outside it’s 140-pip “normal” range, then trade accordingly.

Obviously, the ATR(200) would make a pretty crude ADR for our purposes here. So, obviously, fine-tuning the ADR to be more flexible and responsive, would be a good thing. How to define “flexible” and “responsive” is another matter, and that’s where I ran amuck in my previous post.

In an attempt to make my calculated ADR more flexible and responsive to the changing daily range of the GBP/USD, I have scrapped my previous algorithm, and am now trying something new. I’ll put off until later explaining the math, and my rationale for using it.

For now, I’ll post calculated ADR’s for the 12-day period that we have been discussing here. See whether you agree with me, that these figures are more useful for estimating a “normal” next-day price range.

4352

Clint,

Just for interest’s sake (seeing as, after mulling this over, I’ve decided that at this stage in my forex experience I have higher priorities than hair-splitting between ADR algorithms), I have two questions. Are you using 21:00 GMT for your daily framework? And do you weight the calculation for any particular day of the week towards the range demonstrated on previous like days (each Friday ADR weighted towards previous Fridays’ ranges, for example)?

Cheers, Pajo.