@ LearninToPimpPips
Wow, i’m floored. I never would have seen all that. Great analysis.
ohhhhh Now I get it;)
I kept the browser Window with the first page of this thread open for the past few weeks, without refreshing it;) Now suddenly (after a refresh) I see all those lovely links to the new videos… and I was wondering what the hell all of you are talking about hahahaha;)
UPDATED: Created chart for potential turn around points. Given commercials are at many year extreme longs, I do expect a bottom to be forming. The chart at the bottom shows analysis to have a bias where this may occur.
Thanks.
My analysis was spot on. I was anticipating. But didn’t consider all variables like a stop run.
I’m trading demo still…but some big lessons as I took a huge loss on equity.
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I’ve learned to not do analysis on a cell phone. Have a computer and do more thoughtful analysis.
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Don’t be stupid on risk. I found myself using old failed techniques of overleveraging and paid the price. I’m thankful it happened though instead of it working out and feeling like I can beat the market. Better to reiterate the expensive lesson on demo versus live monry.
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You can be right, but at the wrong time. Pretty frustrated right now. I anticipated this. I saw it coming. I read price and what the market was telling me. But I didn’t get a successful entry to take advantage of the analysis.
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My main lesson here on entries is to have a little more flexibility on the OTE’s. You want them to line up…but have to have some flexibility for other considerations.
But darn it…I had it nailed. I feel like I am making progress reading price action and anticipating the market to have a bias. It is getting much easier to form a bias and seeking trade in the direction of my bias. The big turnaround for me was watching the long term analysis webinar. I’ve only watched the first part, but it made some things click. Concepts like a difference between market flow and market structure. Using ITH/ITL in analysis. Use the 1 hour chart mainly for analysis and only drill down to find entries or manage trades. Before the webinar, most of my time was spent on 15 minute charts. Now I’m mainly on 1 and 4 hour charts.
Since we are learning bias and using that bias to increase probability in trading…here is my view for Cable.
I am anticpating a down move to the 1.5480 level which is the 50% extension of the most recent ITH/ITL fib I drew in the charts below. If we do get there…there will be some juicy stop to run at the 1.5468, 1.5458, and 1.5429 for some STL on the 4 hour chart. Then the LTL at 1.5422.
This is either a leg down to form a retrace to form an OTE for a change in interim term sentiment to bullish and run higher. Or a leg down to extend the down trend.
If we’re looking at anticipation…given the commercials are at an extreme of longs…I do suspect this to be a retracement to change direction and run higher with an OTE in the . But as a technical analyst…will recat as the market tells me. But my guess at this point is a leg down to the 1.5500-1.5450 range the turn around and go up.
Thank you ICT…Getting much more comfortable putting myself out there with analysis. Hopefully the board is getting value of my longer posts documenting these thoughts and ICT is encouraged by thread members stepping out on the limb to express their view of the market. If more people do this…I wonder if ICT will bring back "PTC feedback’ videos where he discusses posts on the thread and provides commentary himeself.
per ICT tweet…
He made money today. And we’re going to learn a new technique called ‘search and destroy’
Poll…since we’re supposed to anticipate the market…let’s anticipate what “search and destroy” means.
What say you ICT thread members…what is “search and destroy” and how does it apply to today.
My guess…
“search and destory” is to build up excitement in a community of traders, then destroy their enthusiasm by slow releasing ForeXmas gifts. 
j/k
seriously…I bet its a buy day fakeout and gun higher for triggering stops before reversing…similar to my analysis below or something along those lines.
There were many tall wick 4 hour candles clustered together that, in hindsight, were just primed to be gunned out before turning lower.
Search and Destroy = we, now as smart money - search for the dumb money sits -and once big money guns those positions - we the smart money get on board and help with the destruction.
ICT - you do know that U R creating a whole slew of millionare mindsets don’t you:::
Just from the fact all the discussion(s) around here are on understanding what you teach - and no one lately has asked how your doing with your million dollar project:
We’re all to busy trying to duplicate it
So how are you doing with your project? (I guess I am the one who doesn’t have the correct mindset yet!) Dam.
Yeah…bet your right. I bet ICT went short on the cable at today’s R1 level just above the stops for the prior highs on the 4 hour chart.
Search and Destroy…smart money destroys dumb money.
Damn Damn Damn…I had the analysis…but missed the entry. In hindsight, it looks so clear now.
I think the first post says he’s taking a break to concentrate on ForeXmas and will resume it in Jan.
Yeah, it burns. I had the same trade as you at NYO, similar thinking. Stop loss was triggered - only by ~3 pips - then plummeted in my favor. Not sure what stings more, having the correct bias and finding you get stopped out, or being wrong altogether. It’s probably the former that frustrates me most, and I can totally empathize with you on this one. You feel like you did the work and should get paid, but don’t let it get you down. Remember, the market doesn’t owe anyone anything. Just keep “LearninToPimpPips” and you’ll get plenty of big pay days. :57:
I could not imagine under taking a project like the 25 days of ForeXmas; especially factoring in the personal responsibilities of family life with five kids. I know he is formatting some videos after releasing the first two, but does anyone know when he plans to release more of the videos. As a care provider myself, it takes some juggling to arrange study time. Also, I’m guessing tonight’s PTC won’t be a live class, as he is planning to post an overview of his trades rather than hold an actual class.
A question on this buy day and sell day template.
I’m trying to reconcile what appears to be a conflict of some guiding principles. One tenant is that the daily high or low is established in the first 5 hours after midnight GMT and can look to LO to establish the daily high/low.
WHen I look at these templates, it appears the daily hi/lo is established in LO (7:00 - 9:00 GMT) and then goes through the asian range to the other side.
What am I missing…
Not questioning the template…they appeared to work several days this week…but all the days this worked violated the guideline that the daily hi/low established after midnight GMT but brfore LO.
And another question…
In some of the early PTC videos, ICT talks about forming a bias for the range for the day. It’s either MS1 -> MR2 for a long bias or MR1 -> MS2 for a short day bias.
On the excel spreadsheet in the first post that ICT features…you manually enter the prior day hi/lo/close and it calculates the pivots. That much makes sense. I get the hi/lo/close of the 05:00 - 04:59 GMT range to get NY midnight pivots.
What I’m confused about is what to enter in the ‘open’ field on the s/s. If you look at the calculations on the s/s, the bias is determined…it compares cells B4 to B7. B7 is the close price. That makes sense. B4 is the open price.
If B4>B7 (open > close) its a MS2 -> MR1 day…otherwise, it’s a MR2-> MS1 day.
What do you enter for open…given most days the open equals the close…when I use the s/s…I always get MR2 -> MS1 becuase open equals close.
What value to you enter for the “open” to use this correctly? If you’re in the NYO kill zone…do you enter 12:00GMT (7:00 ET) as the open so that the trading between midnight NY time and NYO gives you the bias?
See attached for screen shot of the pivot calculator from the first page…with the cell focus on the cell calculating bias.
Does my question make sense? What do you enter in the “open” cell?
Hi Fellas, please can anyone help me with the “daily pivot lines” indicator? Would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
…Iyke
Anyone else take the same long LC trade today on Cable? I traded it based on the following: below ADR, crossed an S/R level, and formed an OTE with confluence of S1 pivot. I don’t trade the LC much, so I’d appreciate some feedback regarding my question below from those who have more experience with it.
My entry:
I see the trade has gone in my favor and traded back up into the Average Daily Range. However, I cut my profits short because after having my order filled at 1.5624, price was just ranging for more than a couple hours. [B]My question is, how long after making a typical LC counter-trend trade do you guys hold onto it for/expect to see it produce 20-30 pips on average?[/B]
As I treat LC trades as scalps, I don’t like to hold onto them very long on an intraday trade basis. 20-30 pips and I’m out, typically (or let a very small portion run). I would like to see LC trades go in my favor rather quickly since liquidity runs pretty thin after 18:00/19:00 GMT and I begin to get a bit antsy if I have an intraday position open past then.
Any feedback would be much appreciated, thanks.
he talks about 4 hrs from midnight New York (EST) time which is => 9am GMT the latest for High/Low of the day to be formed, you got your time zones mixed up a bit
Hi,
in one of the ‘‘session trading tactic’’ videos (LC I think…?), ICT says something along the lines: ‘’…at 18:00 GMT you want to get out, just pull the plug, unless you holding long term position…’'
hope this helps
Slight correction. I believe he states the daily high or low is established in the first 5 hours after midnight [B]NY time[/B]. This is one of the reasons the NY Open is supposedly easier to trade. There are high chances the high or low of the day is already on the chart by NY Open.
Edit: Looks like Kubio has already clarified this.
I took the same trade but was very unsure about it because of my lack of experience and problems of finding the correct setups.
I entered at the exact same price, took first profit @ 1.5641 (0,03 lot), took 2nd profit @ 1.5653 (0,03 lot) and the rest (0,02 lot) got stopped out @ 1.5636 which was the point i moved my SL to after 2nd TP.
Just like you i was wondering if the trade setup was still valid after that “long” period of ranging. But as i said i don’t have that much experience and make a lot of mistakes, so i just let the price do what it wanted to do. Don’t know if thats correct, but in the end we got some pips, so it was correct at least a little bit. 
Thanks kubio. However, if an LC trade is still ranging at this point, is it still advisable to just close the position? I’m aware of the 18:00 GMT cautionary advise, and that’s why I try and close any open intraday positions by around this time, but I’m curious to know how London Close traders handle their LC trades when they’re noticing it’s range-bound and 18:00/19:00 GMT is approaching.
Take my trade, for example. It didn’t really go anywhere until after 18:00 GMT. Was I wise to close it for a small profit just because 18:00 GMT was approaching?
I know there are many traders here who trade the LC quite regularly, and I’m interested to know how long they hold their LC positions for on average (obviously no two days are the same) before expecting to see 20-30 pips in profit.
First of all, if its said pull the plug at 18:00 GMT, doesnt necessary means close all trades bang on the minute… so if I was you would’ve waited another 30 to 60 mins and if not moving would close around BE+1… win is a win after all
there was a fellas ‘‘specialising’’ in LC scalps, so they might give a better advice, what I’m saying is more of a common sense really and a little bit of experience, I trade around after 18:00 gmt sometimes when get back from work I usually do what described above, if market not moving just close for a small profit or if slightly negative, tight up the stop and live it… I also check for reference some related markets (or indices) to see if there is any movement at all…
my 2 cents