I understand the whole SMT divergence concept. Just wondering what SMT stands for.
So if the high was not put in on the Tues/Wed sessions, does that mean that this week was actually a buy week all along? 
Especially since price is well above the opening price now⌠Ah anyway hope ICT will explain what happened 
SMT = Smart Money Tool
Iâm still waiting for that aha moment from the wife!!
I still get that look as if to say âyou on that site again?!â
Sorry for that, here is the right screendump, enter at 2776 and out at the cross, I was riding the Judas:(
and missed the nice move up, but still 32 pips in bank.
Me too hahaha
I got faked out on the bounce of the Asian range at NYO like some other people have. Iâm going to go over London Open templates again.
PM,
pull up a 1 hr chart of both pairs and look at this week as though it is 1 day. Cable is still in sell mode, Fiber is a Z Week.
Kudos to everyone who saw the buy day. I had a short bias and was too rigid in my bias to see we were in a buy pattern, even though I watched the buy pattern unfold. I thought something seemed peculiar when cable poked just above AR. I went to bed without an entry last night since price didnât go where I wanted to enter. Kudos to me for not forcing a trade.
Thanks lazydogs
Sigh, just when I thought I was beginning to understand these things, I get hit with an awful day like today⌠I think I was a bit too married to the sell week idea, and thatâs my mistake for being too stubborn 
On a brighter side of things, we have daily candle divergence. Big move ahead
Donât beat yourself up too bad. There was a lot of people that had the direction wrong including myself. Make sure you have a trade journal or something to write down what you were thinking at the time. Itâs helped me out a lot. I have a word doc that has why i entered, where, the result and if it wasnât profitable I write out why. I also date it and take a screenshot of the chart. We canât change the past but we can learn from our mistakes.
If you do that long enough youâll probably start to see a pattern with your losing trades. Then you can correct the problem and be much better off in the long run.
:57:
Both pairs formed classic buy days. EU continued the trend through NYO, but GU seems to have slowed into more of a z day/small range day. The ADR on the EU is exceeded, while the GU is significantly under the ADR.
I have a sell limit set for a LC scalp on the EU at 1.2820. waiting for price to drift back up there to retrace. Iâm somewhat expecting range bound movement through the rest of the day, and that appears to be the top end of the range that has formed at LC.
Also, in addition to being the top of the LC range, it is right in the middle of the OTE from the dayâs high to the most recent swing low. ANother confluence is 138 extension of the AR low to the high betweeen LO and NYO before the retrace at NYO to the CPP-AR high retest. A few other confluences is this is the MR2 level, and 20 institutional level, Williams percent R in oversold, and SMT bearish SMT divergence on the 15 m chart (although on the daily, we have some bullish divergence that could be signaling an uptrend forming, particularly given the daily candle formation on the EU).
But this is a short term scalp.
Note: as I was typing this, my sell limit was tripped.
After my NYO losing trade, im trading the LC. I cut risk into half, now only using 0.5%. OTE formed near some resistance levels and i projected my TP, using the recent swing height and the 127%, which seem to be identical.
What do you think about this LC - counter trend- trade?
Hmmm, but from what you guys are saying, price is going to finish this week even higher than where it is now, so a level which is way waaay higher than the opening price for the week, which, if Iâm not mistaken, was 1.2678 - this means that for the fiber at least, this was almost certainly a buy week⌠Or maybe a sell week that suddenly reversed and became a buy week? Haha, and now we are looking at a few buy weeks at least given the latest weekly candlesâŚ
I´m in the exact same trade with same profit target. One thing to add is that we have SMT supporting this trade. Let
s see how it goes.
I was a victim of bias-marriage as well. Need to broaden my horizon and burn the various templates into my mind. For those who went long at LO, job well done.
This is where the âHandling Losses and Inevitable Drawdownâ video has helped. Weâll all have our losses, but itâs how we handle them that will ensure our success.
Fiber yes, but I still think Cable is going to reach fresh lows, and that´s it. This might be the engineering of a mid term SMT and then boom!, buy program for the next weeks. At least that´s the scenario I´m looking at right now. Cable is still bearish and it will probably fulfill its weekly range at a TT´s extension.
But who knows, I might be very wrong.
Wow, didnât follow the thread for a day and had 23 pages to read this morning!
Itâs hard keeping up with movement like this, but at the same time all of these repeating questions just help to beat these rules into your brain.
The analysis has seriously gotten to the next level lately too!
Exactly the trade Iâm in right now. Although I used a 20 pip SL and sized my lots accordingly to the percentage I was willing to risk.
If it went up 20 pips, That would break the daily high, and I would see it as a failed trade at that point. I rationalized it if it drifts up 20 pips, it would likely drift up 30 pips to the R2 level.
That way, it only needs to retrace back to the 1.2800 inst level for me to take some off, move SL to break even, and let some more ride to the same TP projection you have. I did also allocate a thrid portionâŚin anticipation of a potential judas swing tomorrow morning for a move higher. My plan is to leave a little bit on the tableâŚexpecting a buy day tomorrow, to capture some of the judas.
Hehe, good luck to both of us. I saw the SMT divergence too but forgot to mention it. Thanks for that.