The significance of this is that it is confirming everything that you are standing by! CST is Chicago Standard Time which means the Futures are trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. If they are trading on the CME, then you are right to look at the ‘official CME webiste’. If you are looking at the official site and think ‘which times should I be following here?’, then the answer is in the fact that my barchart.com data becomes active at 7:20CST which is when ‘Openoutcry’ starts. In my reply I was stating the time that it showed on my chart as I posted. The point I wanted to make was not that it started at 8:52 CST, but that it was active after 7:20 CST, and not active prior to that.
Did you think I wanted to jump into trading Futures or something? No way, man! I am also more than happy with what ICT is sharing, and I am not expecting more than 30 or 40 pips a week. I guess I have put myself in the gallows these last few weeks for telling the truth and saying that I have started to lose consistency with the multiple pairs, but I am definitely not chasing other areas to harvest. The truth is, the tools that I am able to work with (OTE on Cable and Fiber) in the kill zone I am able to work with would not have given me 30 pips a week, every week, for the month of May. They gave me 30 pips in the month. Consistent in terms of accuracy, yes, but not consistent in terms of their frequency.
What I can’t understand is when you say you accept things without having a full grasp of why they work. Don’t take that as a criticism, it is just a difference in the way that you and I think. I don’t have the confidence to suggest that my observation regarding Futures opening closing time is correct, I just know that it seems logically right. The fact that we have no confirmation on that, and then no real understanding of why that would affect New York open…well that just seems like ‘soaking up the information’ on blind faith. It is one thing running with a hint or tip, but I think it is another basing trading decisions on something you think you know (…and that ‘you’ is not you personally, but people in general).
Anyone notice that today’s central pivot lays on 1.4345, the exact high of the last top fractal. Market flow is bullish on hour, 4 hour, and daily charts. Might be some nice support in there should price retrace down a bit
Edit: This is on Fiber (I think obviously, but still…)
Hi all! I have a question for the daily high low. Does it start at 8AM GMT meaning asian open is the start of the new day, or would the close of NY be the start of new day when plotting our daily high and lows?
Date: May 30, 2011
Time Started (Local): 10:46 PM
Time (GMT): 4:46 AM
[B]Fundamentals:[/B]
USDX had hit a resistance level at 76.25 a few days ago, and closed with a large bearish candle at 74.57. On the hourly USDX chart, the dollar tried to break the 75.00 level twice but failed and ultimately fell, gapping down to 74.439 for the low of the day. Seems like the dollar is bearish, which may signal a bullish bias for the Cable and Fiber for the long term. Bond yields continue to fall as today seems to have consolidated a bit more. We see a failure low on the 30-year while the others have made lower lows on the prevailing downtrend. This, as stated in the top down analysis segment, indicates that the dollar may be looking to slide down lower; further signalling a bullish sentiment for the Cable and Fiber. COT data shows that the Cable is now positive at 12 229.00 and Fiber is now up at -22 818.00 from last week of -51 803.00. COT data shows a bullish bias as well. There is currently backwardation occuring on all Pound and Euro futures contracts. OI for Pound is at 108 868 and 258 509 for the Euro. Pound OI is favouring more of a bullish signal, but OI seems to have increased slightly for the Euro.
[B]Technicals:[/B]
Cable market flow is bullish on all 3 time frames, as well as the Euro. Both opened above NY CPP as well as the GMT CPP. We may see some resistance at 1.6600 and 1.6620 levels. For the Fiber, we may see some resistance at the 1.4520 and 1.4755 levels. Support at 1.4250 and 1.4330
[B]Possible Entries and Other Notes:[/B]
No major news releases are coming today except the CB Consumer Confidence report at 10:00am local. A rate higher than 66.3 signals dollar strength, while lower shows signs of weakness for the dollar. Overall, the market is favouring a long entry, the resistance at 1.6600 seems strong for the Cable, we may be looking for a long entry into the Fiber as it has more “breathing space” before hitting any major resistance levels. Cable is currently faced with resistance at 1.6550 which it has been consolidating around for a while now. Not too sure if Cable will break it. Can’t quite clearly make a pending order yet so we’ll have to see what happens once LO starts.
Time Completed (Local): 11:11 PM
And I’m done, it’s been a while since I’ve done this, hopefully I’m not too sloppy. Let’s see what LO brings us! Good luck!
I am glad you didn’t take my comments as a negative criticism. They weren’t meant to be such, and if anything they are a reflection on my own limitations. Ever heard of analysis paralysis?! Like you say, your NY puzzle was probably closer to completion than mine, and in that sense it wasn’t such a leap of faith for you.
Some nights I can get a window of time that spans 7:30 am NY time through London Close, but other nights I am getting to the charts at about 8:30am. The reason I discounted NY open was because London Close gives me the opportunity to wind down from the day job before sitting down at the charts, and it also gives me time to prepare. Who knows, I might just find a way to get some analysis in an hour prior, and then jump right into the NY open. Watch this space!
So for those that were not in on the chat last night/this morning, big flows enter the market at New York Open. CME Futures start trading at 7:20 CST and that means not just the trading of CURRENCY futures, but also BONDS. Basically from 7am NY you can start to see the set-up of an OTE that will likely come to fruition at around 8:20/8:30am. News releases that come around that time will likely toss fuel on the fire of any successful move. I think that is what we got from ICT, if you have anything to add AK, then please do so.
I am not sure how a negative news event that takes PA in a direction opposite to the previously determined daily direction and invalidate OTE might play out, but I’ll leave that for now. OK, that’s me out of here…I will be monitoring price on my iPhone now that I know ICT is a fan;)
Hi fartist. I think Wally means either chose to use NY (EST) time zone or the GMT time zone. If you decide to use NY midnight as your open, then you should also use NY close for your closing. Hope this helps!
Usually there will not be any difference as the daily high or low will be made in the London session and the opposite low or high will be made in NY session, there is always the exception but if you scroll back though the charts you’ll find this holds up nicely.
But it all comes down to what your comfortable with.
Sorry but i have another qns, i noticed at times ICT uses the previous day’s low to draw up his fibbs and sometimes the current day itself.
Why’s that? Could it be the current day range is small thus he uses the previous day?
it looks to me that when ICT incorporates pivot buy/sell zones into trade he’s looking at PDH/PDL else, he is taking trend trade and looking for OTE in last significant swing retrace.
This is just my observation so it would be nice to hear others as well.
ICT is using what he thinks is the most significant low, usually the previous day but an intraday low might be better also if looking for an OTE on a kill-zone trade its better to use a smaller range (around 40 pips) so the stops are smaller and closer to the entry.
Who was in the live session with ICT the other day when we covered ‘Z’ day? Can you remember I got him onto London Close trade for a while? Can you remember him saying that the JPY crosses generally set up earlier than the others? It hasn’t been my experience thus far, but I can see what he is talking about tonight. Check out USDJPY, EURJPY, and AUDJPY. All over their ADRs but 30 minutes short of London Close Kill Zone they all put in tradeable OTEs with great R:Rs
AUDJPY : 2.2R
EURJPY: 2.68R
USDJPY: 2.22R
If these are the kind of insights ICT has in store for us, BRING IT ON!
EDIT: Looking at the Fiber trade at LC tonight…nice OTE just before kill zone, and nice OTE on that just into kill zone, but it hadn’t traded up to R1 and I usually like to take them off a pivot. There was however yesterday’s pivot that hadn’t been traded to, and there was resistance at the 1.4420 figure. SMT showed divergence on 5M but the peaks weren’t totally lined up i.e. Fiber was leading slightly.
N.B. Extended kill zone of 3 hours starting at 10am EDT.
