Conclusions I draw about trading/traders from this thread.
In general, the goal is always the same
In general, the route taken is always different
The only right is consistent profit
The only wrong is consistent loss
We will never all agree
To each his own
It doesnt matter how you arrive, as long as you arrive.
Great thread Manxx. I’ve enjoyed reading everyone’s thoughts so far
Thanks PanchoV and thanks for your other encouragements.
Unfortunately this thread has already been destroyed by ego-cravers who have no intention of either respecting its purpose or contributing to it. So let’s call it a day. As you know, I am not a great forum-lover, they always attract people who just want to fight with others whilst hiding behind their internet anonymity. They just get a kick out of it, usually because something else is missing from their lives - in this case, I suspect it is a trading failure frustration.
Keep it up Manxx - always enjoyable reading your degenerate comments on what you think of others. Even though nothing has been said about you? Well done.
Unfortunately though, you’ve manged to show everyone here your instability and spontaneity towards outbursts. I’ve received PMs from other members here pointing this out too.
I just went to pick up your dummy which you spat out, but I think I’ll leave it for a while longer on the floor.
Good luck Manxx - it is what it is
A successful trader rely on a good working Forex Strategy. Without a Forex system or strategy, a trader cannot succeed. So the strategy is more important here. However, a forex trader without the proper knowledge cannot make use of a Good strategy if presented with it. Still, he needs a strategy to succeed.
On no! Not the Babypips nursery school gang! Anything but that!
Well, I obviously agree with you there Billywhyte.
But the whole point of this thread was to try and probe into what actually makes a strategy good. It is very easy to say that we need a good strategy, but it seems most people agree that a strategy should be personal and not just an off-the-shelf “try it and see” - and when it doesn’t work just go and get another one and try that.
But the BP vigilantes destroyed the chance to even get started on the topic.
I agree that both the trader and strategy are important.
But if its true that being a good trader is a requisite for developing a good strategy, and a good strategy wont make you a good trader, doesnt that mean that being a good trader is more important.
The strategy is the result, not the cause
And if thats the case, we’re back to Manxx’s main question. What makes a good trader good?
Hi Manxx
If your stil willing to contribute to this thread, whats your definative answer to what makes a good trader good?
Something like this: you’re sitting in this chair…
and a guy comes in and says, “I’ve never really studied dentistry but I’ve watched a few videos and I spent a fortune on this set of tools - the best you can get”
…would you open your mouth?
Lol. My mouth would remain closed as I ran for the nearest exit.
So are you saying its experience?
Hi PanchoVIlla,
Actually, I am not trying to “say” anything. I just thought it would be/could be useful for Newbies to dig a bit deeper into what their trading methods are made of, what the components are, why they are there and what they are actually telling the trader. It seems to me that a lot of Newbies are content with having only a superficial understanding of what these components are and assume that if someone says “this” or “that” works, then it is sufficient to just copy it onto one’s own charts and obey a set of given rules, and they will make money. OK, maybe that is is all we need to do - but somehow the intensity of the interest in threads about how many people fail suggests this is not so…
I think the popular “3 Ducks” method is an example of this. It clearly is a good method because it has stood the test of time but it is a discretionary method and does require input from the trader. So my question would be is it sufficient simply to blindly place a 60 period ma on a 4H, 1H and 5min chart and mechanically trade the rules? Maybe, maybe not - that is what I wanted to talk about here.
The 4H, 1H and 5min candles are just arbitrary segmentations of what is actually an almost continuing price flow. They break up the price movements into convenient time capsules in order to smooth out some of the price “noise” and allow some form of analytical identification of some underlying core direction.
So the MA is the method used in 3 Ducks strategy to identify these directions. I think it would be useful then for a trader using this to understand, for example, how an MA works, what it actually shows and why 60 periods. I am not doubting this, I am only suggesting that a new trader will learn a lot about their charts if they understand what is on it.
Although it is called the 3 Ducks, there are not really 3 separate components at all. They are all part of the same move. Some traders look to trade whole moves from a 4H chart and ride out the pullpacks, whereas the 3 Ducks follows the same trend but looks to identify the separate legs within the trend and in the same trend direction. This is the 1H chart. But the method goes even further in dissecting the main trend by only entering those parts within the 1H leg that are identified on the 5 min chart
This is maybe clearer if we think that the same process could be approximated purely on a 5 min chart by adding there, on the same chart, a 60 ma and a 720ma (approx 1H 60ma) and a 2880 ma (approx to 4H 60ma) (if my maths is correct!). And we see that we really have here a sound strategy that is simply a typical multiple ma system looking for the short term trades within an identified ongoing trend. The edge being that the trend is likely to continue and one is sailing with the current.
So what is my point here?
I think this particular strategy is good because it is built on sound foundations of trading the trend whilst minimising losses by only trading small sections of that trend. But we all know that trends end and that the end is usually accompanied by a lot of erratic volatility which can endure for long periods before a new trend starts. This is the period where this kind of method can suffer a lot of whipsaw action.
But if a trader is aware of that and understands how to read ma’s then it is possible to identify when the trend is ripe and juicy and when it is worth just leaving for the birds. This, I think, helps to generate lonegevity in consistency rather than simply placing the line and following a set of rules.
But, like I said, I am not trying to “state” anything here. I just thought that this might stir up some worthwhile discussion that might offer some hints or pointers for the benefit of our Newer traders to take into account when putting together a personal strategy for themselves. But if that is of no interest or value then that is OK, we just let this disappear into those archives like all other threads do eventually 
BTW, the analogy with the “dentist” is that the dentist is the inexperienced trader lacking knowledge of the tools he wants to use even though they are potetntially excellent tools. And the “patient” in the chair is the same trader’s wallet.
As you rightly point out it would not be wise to open your mouth for this type of dentist, but that is exactly what many Newbies do with their own wallets whilst they are traders at a similar stage of development…and the inevitable result is that all their “teeth” are removed.
In a wider platform it’s a combination of emotions patience knowledge and skill of the person and also good control of money to create or grow even more amount with confidence by having both ups and downs in the downline while learning new things and adapting to it.
Certainly, we can agree all those ingredients are important in achieving success, but in this thread I am mainly interested in trading methods.
You obviously have a personal trading method yourself - what in you opinion makes it work for you? What components do you use? why? and what do they tell you in order for you to make a trading decision?
These are things I am interested here in discussing here. I don’t mean anyone should post here their entire trading method - just what is it that makes it work for them.
FA is my thing, the charts perform a means of getting in our out.
Right now I remain bullish Euro, various reasons including a sense that Weidmann’s influence will be felt even more in the coming months in the ECB.
So what to trade it against?
Gbp has been an obvious choice, but right now USD is offering some favour, politics is getting in the way of economics in America which often is a sell scenario.
This is where the charts come into play, there is a clear breakout setting up on Eur/Usd, the selling in Eur/Gbp may only be holding the break back, that selling is not likely to continue, when it stops then…
Hi Peterma!
I think there is a lot of add-on value in your approach of following what is actually going on in the markets but using charts for getting in and out of trades. Some people feel that it is unnecesaary to also monitor fundamental news as the charts tell it all, and maybe this is true - but I also feel that following the news not only adds some structure and depth to one’s charts but makes it a whole lot more interesting too! 
I would guess that you maintain charts with longer TFs but I would be interested to hear whether you use indicators or just support/resistance areas, etc. You mention a clear breakout setting up on EURUSD, what do you use to measure or identify a breakout and why?
I am not being nosey and I am not asking that you describe your charts in great detail, I just think there is a lot of value for Newbies to hear how more seasoned traders use their charts and what they lean on for clues about possible moves.
When I think about it, it would also be useful to hear what regular traders have tried and rejected!
I could imagine that you include very little on your charts, but that you may have experimented in the past with some interesting things?
It seems to me that there are two influences at play in the market.
First is the ‘fundamentals’ or maybe better named the ‘what is’. Difficult to explain, but it reflects the reality, e.g. when a person reads that the Euro is doomed and maybe a chart shows some selling - it’s not reality, reality is that EZ is doing ok, even the Greek problem is being managed.
The first, imo, determines direction, the second determines price movement.
The second is where it all happens, the false breakouts, the stop hunts etc etc, it’s short term and it’s just guys making or losing money.
It’s right here that the indicators are of use - one example - Eur/Gbp - FA saying to buy, on Tue past a push up, then on Wed some more, yet the hr1 oscillator indie that I use was saying Wed absolutely no way, either sell this short term, or wait before buying if adding more.
Sounds like a rather mixed answer, Peterma. Crossing between both TA and FA, if you’ll excuse the shorthand. No doubt that it works, I’m certainly not questioning that.
Manxx, the truth is, although you don’t want to know anyone’s full trading approach, a partial explanation of what works for people is irrelevant without knowing the complete story? Therefore without someone opening up to the ‘complete story’ we have little value here? Surely you see the logic, or perhaps not? I hope the latter isn’t the case.
It’s clear what answer you’re targeting, but you’ll not get it here.
[quote=“peterma, post:38, topic:107339, full:true”] It seems to me that there are two influences at play in the market.
First is the ‘fundamentals’ or maybe better named the ‘what is’. Difficult to explain, but it reflects the reality, e.g. when a person reads that the Euro is doomed and maybe a chart shows some selling - it’s not reality, reality is that EZ is doing ok, even the Greek problem is being managed.
The first, imo, determines direction…[/quote]
Thanks, Peterma, this is precisely the kind of discussion and input I was hoping to achieve here.
I don’t see TA and FA and being separate, mutually exclusive techniques either. But they are very different ways of studying the markets. It is not an issue of whether they should be mixed or not. The decision here for any Newbie is how much to focus actual trading decisions on FA opinion and how to apply TA to the same decisions.
I think you dedicate a lot of time to following developments in the markets you are interested in, partly from a general interest perspective but also to form a view on where your chosen instruments are going.
However, there are complications with FA that a Newbie trader should bear in mind. You make a very valid point in saying, “when you read that the Euro is doomed”. It is worth remembering that all published commentators are writing 2nd-hand news and that they are paid to “comment” and so write in a manner that tends to exaggerate and overstate, using such words as “doomed”, “surged” “collapsed” etc.
But it is very difficult to find more accurate, 1st-hand, news oneself. It is also very time-consuming to try to personally plough through various govt and institutional releases, etc. This becomes even more of a headache if someone is planning to trade a selection of different currency pairs.
In addition, economic releases are also based on historic data which is also incomplete and even monthly releases often contain adjustments to the previous month’s data.
But, there is little that sharpens one’s interest in the events occuring in world around them than looking for opportunities to invest in them…
But underlying all this is the fact that it is the fundamentals that are the reality of this world, the, as you put it, “what is”. These are the factors that drive the markets…our problem is a) not knowing all the fundamentals, b) not knowing how the major participants are going to react to them c) how to allow for deliberate interference in the “normal” commercial course of events from sources such as Central Banks and government individuals, etc.
[quote=“peterma, post:38, topic:107339, full:true”] … the second determines price movement.
The second is where it all happens, the false breakouts, the stop hunts etc etc, it’s short term and it’s just guys making or losing money.
It’s right here that the indicators are of use - one example - Eur/Gbp - FA saying to buy, on Tue past a push up, then on Wed some more, yet the hr1 oscillator indie that I use was saying Wed absolutely no way, either sell this short term, or wait before buying if adding more.[/quote]
Yes, I agree with this entirely. I think it is important for a Newbie to realise that FA tends to be a long term view and evolves over weeks, months, even years, and that during that period the price is going to do a lot of movement in both directions. But is also important to keep in mind that even fundamentals can be changed in an instance - often with dramatic results.
We have seen on the site some very open and honest accounts of how some long-term positional traders have gained and lost significant sums as a result of actions such as the Swiss Bank unpegging its currency and the Brexit decision to leave the EU. The impact can be immediate and the repercussions far-reaching…and a lot of uncertainty as the reactions slowly unfold…
The difficulty with this second influence is that it fluctuates in a seemingly totally irrational manner. It is clear from many Newbie comments on various threads that the market often does precisely the opposite of what was expected - even to the extent of suggesting a trading method that would unknowingly always set the opposite position to what was intended!
But it is clear that this is a big problem for many. Inevitably, many Newbies are drawn to trading very short-term, partly because it suggests quick profits, but maybe mainly because it allows close stops, which is critical if one’s capital is very small. But that means they are the inexperienced players in perhaps the most fickle areas of price movement. It is inevitable that, being human, we form some kind of view of where we think the price is going, but it so often turns out to be the opposite of what the market “thinks”!
As you have identified, there is a shorter term timeframe that is alternately in and out of synch with the underlying fundamentals and, I think, you are also agreeing that the technical price analysis is about the only way that one can “read” anything sensible into these short term moves.
Thank you for mentioning oscillators. I haven’t personally used these, although I guess my use of ribbons does have a very similar application and purpose, I hadn’t really thought about it from that perspective before. If one is looking to trade longer term trends and seeking a tool that will help to identify entry points then I guess oscillators may be useful. But we are not looking here to do people’s homework for them by specifying anything here. If we post indicators and settings here then we know that some will just go away and set it up without thinking if it is the right indicator for their personal requirements. There is stacks of info on internet about different types and applications of oscillators and it is for each trader to investigate and test whether and what fits with their own objectives.
The point here is that it is useful to hear what actual seasoned traders are doing rather than just reading theory and listening to marketers and promoters! As was commonly agreed at the start of this thread, every trader is different and has a unique trading objective and therefore requires a tailor-made trading method. What we are looking at here is what kind of factors should be taken into account in selecting what to implement when setting up one’s method.
A last word (for now ) on TA and FA:
It is in some ways like watching an F1 race:
The FA guys will study the state of the various stables, the technology being used, the performance of the drivers, weather conditions and so on - and may well pick the winning team for the season
The TA guys will judge the actual race in progress - and may well pick the winner of the race…
I agree that FA is obviously valid and of value, esp if used the way Peterma outlined. A better understanding of FA is one of the many areas I would like to improve on as a trader.
However… at the moment, im one of those people you mentioned that find it unnecessary for the exact reason you stated.
I see fundamentals as “the cause” and PA as “the result”. Right or wrong, Im not interested in “why” price is moving, or in using FA to “project” future price.
Its not a strength of mine and it doesnt fit my style.
I prefer to use TA to gauge the net result of price after fundamentals and all other variables have been factored in.
Regardless, I respect everyone’s opinion and im always open to learning and to the thoughts and advice of all members, esp those with more experience and more skins on the wall.
