With all the stuff in the news between Iran and the US right now, historically, what would happen to the USD if things get hot?
The beginnind of the war means that expences of the country would increase substantially. These additional expences would be mostly covered with an additional money emmission that would probably lead to inflation. Some object of the country`s industry or infrastructure could be damaged or destroyed, so it could cause harm to the national economy in general. Plus,there could be internal migration and uneployment.
At the same time, if we speek about US, the situation seems to be different. First of all, there would be no military actions within the US territory. Additional governmental expences would be limited and directed to largest companies related with the defence like Boeing (BA), Lockheed (LMT), Kratos (KTOS) and other that would probably boost the growth of this sector. That is why it seems to be extremely difficult to assume the future of USD.
Initially, during the pre-war period of rising tension and the early military operations this would be very negative for the USD, while “safer” currencies might initially rise as capital is withdrawn from USD. So USD/JPY could fall hard, maybe USD/CHF also. However, investors might also wish to withdraw capital from more speculative currencies like AUD, CAD and NZD, and this or some of it could end up migrating into the USD, so AUD/USD, NZD/USD could fall, while USD/CAD rises. That said, any war or even threats of war in the Gulf region can interrupt oil supplies, which drivces the global price of oil higher which is positive for CAD, this country being a large oil producer: so I wouldn’t expect USD/CAD to rise much.
Once the progress of military operations is visible, the picture naturally changes. If the war progresses well for the US and shows no sign of expansion to include other major powers in the region or to disrupt major treaty organisations and alliances, expect the USD to rise.
Assuming a fairly short close to full-scale military operations (and the US is most unlikely to enter another war with not clear end-game, look back at Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan), much will depend on the success of infrastructure re-building, regime change and insurgency operations. If these go as badly as in Iraq, expect moderate negative pressure on the USD for years.
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Reviving this thread with Afghanistan’s craziness now happening. What do you all see will happen to the USD after this? 
The USD won’t be affected by the withdrawal no matter how well or badly it goes. But it will be hit hard if either the US decide to re-enter Afghanistan with a regime-change military objective, or if Al Qaida or Isis suddenly appear on TV this week as the puppet-masters behind the Taliban, or a hostile national power decide to enter Afghanistan to take over or replace the Taliban, i.e. Pakistan, Iran or China - all of which very unlikely.
Ah so only when bigger countries are involved will it mean something. I do wonder what the long-term effects are but I’m slightly relieved (although still v sad for the Afghans) that this issue is somehow “contained.”
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