You crack me up!!! LOL!!! Nice post.
Um EXCUSE me. Youāre supposed to be moseying on over to that EURHKD thread to tell us about Options!!!
We all agree Trump is a complete buffoon. Now tell me how you would make money off his instability? An opportunity has arisen like never before. Letās profit off his idiocy.
Hope that drives DAX down
He is well aware of how the tweets effect the markets. Iām sure there are āfriends, goodā¦ great friends! Iāve know for a long time. Good men!ā who are riding the "tweet trend rollercoaster of ārevenueā.
I think they used to call that ride the Gravy Train.
OK, So regarding forexā¦
The subject is SLs. So Iāve been āfreeballingā and not using them. Position sizing has allowed me to weather the storm. Not necessarily the best āstrategyā if it can be classified as on at all! Thank you @dpaterso
Yesā¦ IAM NOT THERE YET!! @bleemus_1 This is true! but I am on my way - Que home sweet home by Motely Crue!! Yeah Baby!! The Crue - actually Iām not a big fan we can make it work!!
Hereās my issue/thought process: Set the stop to give the trade room to develop in an area that more than likely wonāt get hit makes sense. But! And this is a BIG BUTT for me if it does hit that SL that is a confirmed wack to the backside and it hurts.
So if itās supposed to not get hit why have one? To save my butt by āpaying the wrong way ticketā Iāll just hold my now āundervaluedā position in my coin jar and take them out when theyāre worth more. I know this goes against all - ALL forex and trading logic! Every Author would have a freak show with this.
Given that I am considering the following, @Bleemus_1 suggested this route: Get my trigger, send out a .01 āscoutā, I would put a tight SL in place based on PA. if it hitsā¦ Wait. If it starts trending in my direction and develops LOAD for BEAR, or gator or dingos or whatever your national scary critter is! And scale/pyramid in using limit orders.
This is the direction that I am leaning. This Demo thread has been a great learning experience for me and a way to clarify my thoughts. Thanks to all who have contributed in suggestions, political rants, oneliners and likes!!!
I am not signing off still have to codify and post the final strategy, select a broker and make a deposit to my account which I am setting up a āGo Fund Meā page for and will post the link here soon!!! JK!!
KC
So what? If it works for you, it works for you
You are on your way! Formalizing your trading plan and never deviating from it is essential.
Suggestions (take them or leave them) . . .
Switch your leverage to 20:1.
Avoid major news events like the plague. Donāt trade pairs that are prone to Tweets from the orange buffoon. (MXN, CNY etc.)
Initial stop loss at 1.5 to 2 ATR. If as big as 2 ATR I will tend to make it a trailing stop. Position size below vomit level. Myfxbook app for my tablet has a great position size calculator.
Once I take my initial profit by closing a portion of initial position I like to widen stops on the ārunnerā to let it breathe but thatās just me. Getting more runners into the open position column is my number one goal.
Keep at it and you will be fine! Cheers!
Still researching brokers. As US citizen Iām somewhat limited.
Iāve been demoing on turnkey. Now they only open accounts with cryptocurrencies. I looked into the whole process. Have somewhat of an understanding and it seems like a lot of work for the amount of money I will be starting with.
Iāve also demod with lmfx. While their site says, and I had received confirmation of, the ability to transfer a balance with a debit Mastercard drawn on a u.s. bank, I was then told it is not the case unless I go through v load which is something Iām looking into.
Oanda has higher margin requirements. As Iāve stated prior, deposits and withdrawals would be a breeze using a debit card drawn on a local bank.
As a long-term trader Oanda seems as if it would work out for me. Iām not trying to scalp and beat the spread of a market maker. Iām really not concerned about them stop hunting my $20 trade either.
The other concern with Oanda and all other US based brokers is their need to abide by the regulation of FIFO, first in first out, regarding open positions.
On further research I found this applies to open positions of the same pair and the same size.
So if Iām using a grid system with limit orders, I may want to consider staggering lot size as well which would give me flexibility closing trades no matter when they were open.
I am getting closer to a decision on a broker and codifying, finalizing, actually writing down my strategy.
KC
Most of my big positions are consolidating.
Oil is just hovering. No locomotion.
Time and free margin, two things I can never have enough of.
KC
Closed Oil in the green. Was my first oil trade and my initial take is there is a lot more to it than simply TA/Chart reading as I have begun to follow Crude oil and oil markets thread.
Based on what @anon46773462 said in his Oil thread Iām may sit on my sit on my hands for now.
Congratulations!
Ironic that you would mention my oil thread. I took a forex position for the first time in ages today - and one that has virtually nothing to do with charts!!!
I was thinking that GBP has been gotten pummelled over the last few months with the Brexit/political mess. At the same time Mr Trump is keen on a weak USD and lower Fed rates.
So I have taken a long term play on GBPUSD that the pound will improve as the situation starts to clear there and the Fed will indeed behave with further rate cuts.
Looking at this āno indicatorsā daily chart of GU I have taken a ābuy and holdā with a stop below that down-spike in January and a target at 1.3150. Hmmm, has got off to a good start but a long way to go still!
Nice!
What a clean Chart! I bet you were an āinside the linesā drawer!!!
Currently I have both red and green positions on the GU
I have limit orders in place and have placed a larger limit order (for me) down near the bottom of the low spike you refer to on the chart above.
Want to be ready for a TTD (Trump Tweet Dive) just in case!!
KC
Remove the stop.
Close the trade manually if price ever closes below the low of that spike.
For even better results wait for a close below the low of that spike and then place your stop loss a few points (pips) below the low of the current bar.
The President, as much as he wants to, does not control the Fed. While Powell seems to try and appease him somewhat his statements today are contrary to the rate cuts Trump was begging for for ages. The orange idiot chastises Draghi for doing the same thing he has been begging for for months.
Slowing inflation, slowing growth, slowing corporate profits, bond yields diving. Recession is coming and no President or even a dovish Fed can prevent the economic cycle from doing itās thing. Long REITS (VNQ), Utilities (XLU), Treasuries (TLT) and short the Russell 2000 (RWM). Have been for weeks. Forex is just a hobby.
Hi KC
This got off to a much faster and higher start than I expected So my long term play has become a short term overnight trade and Iāve banked the money! Nice āhobbyā!
I also want to stay focused on oil at the moment, things are happening thereā¦
Good luck!
Thatās great! I know when I looked at the chart I wished I had gotten in at your level but the time zone and my desire to sleep prevented me!..
However, I could have set limit orders if I was more aware.
Forex has a draw few can resist!! You may be back!
As former Sec. of State John Kerry said during his run for president in 2004 - āItās time for a gut checkā.
Itās ugly!
I thought I was close. I have learned a lot. Actually started owning/implementing what Iāve learned. Seen some great returns and some horrific drawdown, open to and willing to try suggestionsā¦
I thought I had thisā¦
However, using the āCostanza Maximā my gut says I have thisā¦
My focus seems to be too narrow and I am only looking at parts of my strategy. I have to actually write it down and work it.
The two critical areas I need to address are TPs and SLs. I am never getting off the forex roller coaster. Winners turn to losers and losers turn to drawdown and I will add to what appears to be the bottom or top of losers. What I thought was good risk management wasnāt. I have a bazillion trades open and while the greens can be big the reds can be just as grand!
Iām am doing ok on āwinningā. I have to learn to lose less. Iām not going to be able to squeeze every pip out of the trade. I understand that. But, I have to embrace and own it.
It can be so easy to convince myself that I have a great strategy! That it looks stunning in that ācurve-fittingā dress. Took a clear look at it this morning and itās really a poncho with gym shorts in the rain.
I have a lot of the pieces just have to put them together.
frandlost,
KC
Edit: After reading the above I feel like Iāve become a forex Sommelier - a connoiseur of fine whines. What a whiny post!!
Got wacked around june 6/7 when my positions went from -32 to the -3100 while I was sleeping.
Since then itās been taking profit off the bottom while trades consolidated. Hereās where they are presently
usd/mxn is chewing through resistance and approaching the gap down of june 6/7
eur/usd has formed HL/HH and is working through some supply
usd/cad may have found some demand at the 1.314 zone ADX rising
gbp/cad may have found some support at 1.676 zone ADX is high
gbp/chf may have turned on engulfing candle and higher ADX
eur/gbp LH appears to be absorbing demand perhaps positioning to go lower high ADX
gbp/nzd approaching a verified support area at 1.908 zone ADX is low
gbp/usd hitting some resistance at 1.272 area
eur/nzd is making LH but hitting demand at 1.713 zone
nzd/usd climbing on high ADX
Took some money off the table this morning when my overall positions were at -2100.
Grinding toward the green.
KC
So you trade using only S/R lines right? Or you add something else in your technical analysis?